Group 1 racing in Sydney once again this weekend with the Randwick Guineas and Canterbury Stakes taking center stage on a 9-race card. The track has been drenched during the week from all the rain so we'll be racing on a Heavy track. I wouldn't be surprised if the meeting was called off at some point given there is 30-50mm of rain predicted.
Either way, we have betting tips and comments below for the entire card!
RANDWICK RACING TIPS
Race 1
SHE WILL REIGN was ultra impressive last start after bombing the start. She won by 4 lengths when she raced on a Heavy track and you'd expect her to be winning this. However, Chris Waller was very bullish about his horse FROM WITHIN who was also very impressive on debut before they rode her completely upside down last start in the Magic Millions. From the wide gate they will try and lead with her, and if She Will Reign bombs the start again there could be an upset. There is $1.60 available for From Within to place and that's the only interest I'd have of betting in this, if at all.
Tip: She Will Reign
Race 2
It look as if Chauffeur could be scratched from the race and head to the Black opal instead but MENARI will be running and is clearly the top pick. He should be undefeated but was slaughtered last start. Since then he's won a trial on heavy ground by 5.5L so he should have no trouble with the track. VERANILLO put up a good fight behind She Will Reign on a soft track last start and a repeat of that performance would see him competitive, while KHAN is huge odds after his last start failure. He's much better than that and looks a big price at $17 given the stable said his poor performance was purely fitness-based, though I'm not sure he will be a fan of the wet ground. JUKEBOX the interesting runner.
Tip: Menari
Race 3
Good race this. SCARLET RAIN has come back in great order and ran incredibly well under 62kg last start when runner up to Tactical Advantage who has won four straight. Drops to 57kg here and has won her only race on heavy ground so I'd expect her to jump, lead and be very hard to run down. GLENALL is a colt with big wraps on him and I thought his effort to finish 2nd last start was also exceptional given he was pestered the entire race up front before being run down right on the line. I think he could stalk the Scarlet Rain here and both his races have been on Soft 7 tracks so he should handle the wet. SUPER MAXI has claims after a good return first up.
Tip: Scarlet Rain
Race 4
Tough race but there's a couple I'm interested in here. Really like the look of ROCKET COMMANDER as an eachway bet at $7.50. She's finished 1st and 2nd at her two starts on Heavy ground and has placed 9 times from 12 starts on Soft ground. She looks as if she's a mudlark and I don't think there's too many others that will appreciate the ground as much as she will. She comes into this third up from a spell after two reasonable runs in Melbourne in Group 3 company. The 1200m isn't an ideal distance but her wet track form makes her an attractive betting proposition. SAVOUREUX hasn't placed at either attempt on heavy ground but she does have three wins from five starts on Soft ground. She's got a decent first up record and Brenton Avdulla rides her despite winning on Hieroglyphics a couple of weeks ago. That certainly raises eyebrows and at $13 she is definitely worth backing.
Tip: Rocket Commander / Savoureux EW
Race 5
I've got this between LE ROMAIN and MUSIC MAGNATE. Le Romain returned with a great win in the Group 3 Southern Cross Stakes over 1200m when carrying 61kg. Never finished outside the top 2 when second up, has finished in the top 2 at six of his seven starts at Randwick and has finished in the top 2 at both runs on Heavy ground. Music Magnate returned in similar style when winning the Group 2 Expressway Stakes over 1200m at Rosehill. He's undefeated on wet tracks, has never missed a place second up and has a great record at both the track and the distance. CHAUTAUQUA should appreciate the 1300m, but I need to see him win to convince me he's at his best. Big watch on New Zealand Group 1 winner UGO FASCOLO, while IMPENDING is set to improve sharply. Happy to back Music Magnate and have a saver on Le Romain at $5.50.
Tip: Music Magnate
Race 6
Going to take on ENGLISH here who is untested on Heavy ground. She's trialled very nicely leading into this but we've seen her trial before and then not show up on race day. I'll be backing REDZEL and DAL CIELO. Redzel resumed last prep with a win on a heavy track so there's no reason he can't do the same here. He finished last prep with a win over Terravista and that form has obviously held up. Dal Cielo is absolutely flying this prep having been kept to the sprint trips. Not so well off at the weights at WFA level here but he has raced at group 1 level before and there's a lot to like about the way he's racing right now. Bred to love the wet. The knockout could be JUNGLE EDGE who has won three from four on heavy ground and has never missed a place first up.
Tip: Redzel / Dal Cielo EW
Race 7
Pretty keen to back COMIN' THROUGH again today even though he burnt us last start. He was always going to be better suited up to 1600m and the way he has raced in his last two starts suggests he is crying out for the mile. He gets that now and is third up from a spell so is ready to peak here, and has won on Soft ground before so should handle Heavy. He is a half brother to Criterion who was a mudlark. Draws well, Joao Moreira booked to ride, $4.40 looks a good price to me. MALAISE looks over the odds at $11 to me. Ran very well behind Hey Doc last start and that horse should win the Australian Guineas. The key will be the Heavy track here for Malaise, who has won and placed at his two starts on wet tracks. Draws well and Godolphin have flown Zac Purton in for the ride. INVINCIBLE GEM bolted in last start in Group 3 company over the mile and stays with 54.5kg here as the only filly in the race. This is harder than what she beat, but she's now won three straight . INFERENCE resumed with a good run in the Hobartville. The further he runs the better he will be so 1600m might be a touch short but he is one to follow, while MAN FROM UNCLE has done nothing to suggest he can't be competitive again here.
Tip: Comin' Through / Malaise EW (Best Value)
Race 8
Really not a race I'm keen to bet into but it might be time for TSARITSA to strike. She's been poor recently but put a line through last start after she bombed the start. She will appreciate the step up to the mile and she'll also relish the Heavy ground. The last time she raced over 1600m she won a Group 2 in Queensland and coincidentally it was with Joao Moreira on board, who takes the ride again here. $7 is a price I could back her eachway at. ALEGRIA and TOP OF MY LIST the biggest dangers.
Tip: Tsaritsa
Race 9
This looks a nice race for ASTRONOMOS who steps up to the 2000m at his second run back from a spell. He has won two of his three starts when second up from a spell, and has won three of his four races on heavy ground. Gets in with just 53.5kg and draws well in barrier 6. He ticks a lot of boxes here and looks a great price at $6.
Tip: Astronomos (Best Bet)
Take note: Any of the tips in this article are simply the author’s opinion, so bet at your own risk and always gamble responsibly. Also be sure to check out the Before You Bet Twitter Page for all our thoughts in the lead up to bets! Happy punting!
