2017 Australian Guineas Day Preview & Betting Tips

Group 1 racing once again this weekend with Flemington set to host a 9-race card headlined by the 2017 Australian Guineas. The track is rated a Good 4 and the Rail is in the True position.

We have betting tips and comments for every race below!

Race 1

Hard race to start with here and not one I'm overly keen to bet into. The straight races at Flemington lately have been fairly hard to predict. SWORD OF LIGHT has a good fresh record and her first up run last prep over this distance behind Derryn was enough to suggest she could win this. I'm not convinced about Catch A Fire (who drops from 1300m to 1100m) or Missrock (who stepped up to 2500m last prep), so Sword of Light looks reasonably well placed to win. The value could be teh two at the bottom of the weights. The last time we saw GIVE US A GO she ran 3rd behind Demonstrate, while SAVAJU comes off a dominant win in much easier grade.

Tip: Sword Of Light / Savaju EW

Race 2

HEATHERLY looks the best bet of the day here. She has to carry 59kg but she looks to have a significant class edge over every other runner here, having finished 2 lengths behind Terravista in the Group 1 Black Caviar Lightning Stakes last start. she's placed at Group 1 level and four of her last five starts have been at either Group 1 or Group 2 level, so dropping back to Listed company here should see her very hard to beat. She's only ever missed a place once from nine starts over this distance and I'd expect her to be starting shorter than what she currently is. I think her only danger in the race is HUSSON EAGLE, who looks to be an extremely good straight track sprinter. He's never finished outside the top 2 from three starts over this track and distance, and his first start this campaign was a straight track win over the 1000m at Sandown. He might have enough of a weight advantage to trouble Heatherly and it wouldn't surprise me to see him win with his record here. Happy to take on everything else, but we can bet hard on Heatherly here with a saver on Husosn Eagle for a good result.

Tip: Heatherly (Best Bet)

Race 3

MADEENATY could be a nice option to play a double with Heatherly in Race 2. She should be winning this based off what we've seen. Her debut win over the track and distance was super impressive, and she probably should have won her other start down the straight when she was clearly caught in the worst part of the track during the Spring. She thrashed the rest of the horses on the inside of the track by about 6 lengths, so it looks as if she excels down the straight. She has since run 3rd behind Houtzen in the Magic Millions so this should be a heavy drop in class and you'd expect her to win this. Even money still available but I'd expect her to be starting around $1.70. SEIZED looks the main danger.

Tip: Madeenaty

Race 4

Looks a very even race outside of the favourite who should be very hard to beat here. PORTMAN is racing inn terrific form having won three of his last four starts - his only defeat came at the hands of Snitzson who is very handy. Won easily over this course and distance last start and despite rising in grade, he stays on the minimum weight and draws perfectly. Looks the winner. SHOW A STAR should bounce back here after a luckless run last start at Caulfield when held up from the 350m-250m. Has a great record at the distance. DIVINE MR ARTIE just has to repeat his last start performance to be somewhere near the mark, while LIAPARI is racing in career best form over this distance in Sydney which is form that typically holds up in Melbourne. Portman clearly on tops but very even outside of him.

Tip: Portman

Race 5

Tough race. I have reservations over both Rising Romance and Happy Hannah here. Rising Romance has had eight starts at the track for no wins and seemed to lose her form completely last prep. She draws wide here so won't get an easy run at all. Happy Hannah is very, very good but I don't think we'll see her at her best until she gets to 2000m. Certainly vulnerable first up over 1400m. That leaves me to stick with DIAMOND BARONESS who has a terrific record at the track and distance, drops in weight to 54kg and draws perfectly in barrier 5. She's rock hard fit and that could give her the advantage she needs. The other I want to back is TURBO MISS who looks the value in the race at $10. She meets Deja Blue worse off at the weights but the key is her coming into this third up from a spell where she is undefeated from two previous starts. Was strong when winning over this distance at the end of last prep and should get a good run from barrier 4 with Williams on board.

Tip: Diamond Baroness / Turbo Miss EW (Best Value)

Race 6

Pretty keen to back GRANDE ROSSO at the odds here. He was absolutely flying before stepping up to 1600m last start where he just didn't run the trip. Drops back to 1400m here which he has a terrific record at and it was only three starts ago that he won at Stakes level over this course and distance. I think ZEBRINZ could be the danger here on the back of his last start win over this course and distance. He always takes a couple of runs to come good so it was no surprise to see him win last start and now that he's fit he could go on with it. Kenjorwood is 0/4 over course and distance and will need the run first up, He Or She could win but I think he'll need this first up run, while Hooked is the big unknown in the race having his first start for the new stable. Happy to back Grande Rosso at 6 with a saver on Zebrinz at $6 too.

Tip: Grande Rosso

Race 7 - Australian Guineas

Very hard to see HEY DOC being beaten here after a dominant performance when winning the Group 3 CS Hayes Stakes last start. Some have cast doubts over his ability at the mile but I don't see that being an issue for him. He draws to get all the favours in the run from barrier 2, he won at Group 2 level over 1600m third up from a spell last prep and he looks to be the clear top pick here at $3.80. ATTENTION ran a super race at Group 1 level last start, finishing less than a length behind Black Heart Bart. Steps up to the 1600m here, has Brett Prebble flying in to ride, and the Snowdens typically get it pretty spot on in Melbourne. He could be a value play at $12. Expect a better run from DIVINE PROPHET who failed first up in the Group 1 CF Orr Stakes. The last time he was at 1600m he won the Caulfield Guineas so up in distance, back to his own age group should see him much more competitive. LAND OF PLENTY draws horribly but he did very well to finish 3rd behind Hey Doc last start after covering ground. The step up to the mile suits and he looks a live chance here at $23 but will need a good ride. THEANSWERMYFRIEND definitely one to include coming off a huge win in easier grade. Carried 59kg and absolutely bolted in running decent time and the step up to 1600m suits. Won easily over this distance third up last prep and I think he is a big chance here. I think PRIZED ICON will run well but is still looking for longer, SEABURGE and MORTON'S FORK need to show more, INSIDE AGENT a knockout hope.

Tip: Hey Doc 

Race 8

Pretty keen to back ANNUS MIRABILIS here at good odds. He draws horribly in barrier 15 but this horse is flying. Won two on the trot over 2400m and 2800m before going for a short break. Returned last start and finished 3rd over 2000m which I thought was a terrific effort over a distance short of his best. Straight up to 2600m here and he drops 5.5kg on his last run. Given how well he won over 2800m at Flemington two starts back, I think he's a great chance here. NORTHWEST PASSAGE will be hard to beat. He's won 5 of his 6 starts including a victory over a good field last start over 2500m at Moonee Valley. He defeated Chance To Dance in that race, and Chance To Dance is no hack at all. He'll lead and be hard to run down. DE LITTLE ENGINE will be thereabouts, as will BIG MEMORY.

Tip: Annus Mirabilis

Race 9

THEANSWERMYFRIEND is teh first emergency for the Guineas and if he doesn't get a run in that then he will be incredibly hard to beat here. I think he's a live chance in the Guineas on the back of his dominant win at Sandown under 59kg last start. Draws well, stays at 1400m and gets in well with 57kg. One of the better bets on the card. KNOWABLE looks a danger to the favourite after a relatively luckless run at Group 2 level behind Oak Door last start. Won over this course and distance two starts ago and gets blinkers on for the first time here. THINK BABE and TRIBAL WISDOM interesting runners coming off big wins.

Tip: Theanswermyfriend