2017 Blue Diamond Stakes Day Preview & Betting Tips

Huge triple header of Group 1 racing this weekend at Caulfield with the Blue Diamond Stakes supported by the Futurity Stakes and Oakleigh Plate. The nine race card contains a further three Group 2's, two Group 3's and a Listed race on what is set to be a cracking card.

We have betting tips and comments on every race below!

Race 1

Good, competitive race to start the day over the 2000m. SECOND BULLET comes up the short priced favourite after bolting in first up but I'm going to take him on at the price here. I think this field is much stronger than the one he beat first up, and he tends to struggle second up from a spell. Damian Lane chooses to stay with him over GOLDSTREAM, but I think Darren Weir's horse is a very good winning chance again. He's come good his last two starts as he's gotten fitter, and the form has been franked out of his last win with Chance To Dance winning since.

It remains to be seen whether he will get around Caulfield well, but barrier 2 should give him every chance to win again. I think PILOTE D'ESSAI will be hardest to beat. He comes into this second up and with the first up run under his belt, along with the step up to 2000m, he is much better suited here. The stable have notified that he will lead and that should see him hard to get past. I think we can back both Pilote D'essai and Goldstream for a good result to open the day.

Tip: Pilote D'essai / Goldstream

Race 2

Expecting GRATWICK to run a big race here at decent each way odds around $8. Although he's been racing in easier grade, the formlines out of those races have actually been quite strong with the likes of Fuhryk and Widgee Turf tied in. The slight concern is he might get caught wide with Williams on board from barrier 9 but if he can land on speed without burning much fuel then he could be hard to beat here. INTO ORBIT could be the hardest to beat up on speed after finishing 2nd to Legless Veuve last start, beating home Hey Doc who was a very impressive winner last week, while DERRYN should also go close.

Tip: Gratwick EW

Race 3

Looks a very thin race and a very winnable race for FARSON given he is being targeted at the Australian Guineas. Beat Rising Red over 1600m last start and Rising Red then came out and won midweek at Sandown. He should go forward from barrier 9 and he'll be hard to run down. MISS STRATHALLAN might be the best of the Hayes/Dabernig horses after bolting in first up over 1600m. She's being targeted towards an Oaks but she won with ease first up and this isn't a strong field. CLIFF HANGER next best, while CAPTAIN RHETT can run a race at 40/1.

Tip: Farson

Race 4

JENNIFER LYNN looks well placed here up to 1400m third up from a spell. She was butchered by Damian Lane last start and gets a 3kg weight swing on Fuhryk here, so that with the step up to her pet distance makes her well placed to win here. FUHRYK steps up to 1400m for the first time but she should handle that without many problems given the form she is in this prep. I think she'll go close but may just find one too good under the conditions of the race. OREGON'S DAY was a huge run first up to run 2nd behind Fuhryk after covering ground during the run. Up in distance, 2.5kg weight swing and second up from a spell are all positives for her. Big watch on the WA filly ELLICAZOOM who will relish the 1400m and is very talented on her day but this is her biggest test and I would have preferred a local jockey on.

Tip: Jennifer Lynn

Race 5

BLACK HEART BART showed what a tremendous horse he is last start when winning the Group 1 CF Orr Stakes over this exact course and distance. He drew barrier 13 that day but enjoyed an A1 ride from Brad Rawiller to steam over the top of them. His stats now look like this: only ever finished outside the top 2 once for Darren Weir (last year's Cox Plate), has only finished outside the top 2 once when third up from a spell, has only finished outside the top 2 once from 12 starts over 1400 (and has won 7 of those) and has 4 wins and a 2nd from 5 starts at the track. Barrier 6 will give him absolutely every chance to win again here and keep his crown as the King of Caulfield.

I do think his stablemate Palentino is ready to win, though, and he did beat Black Heart Bart third up from a spell last prep. That was on a Soft track and it was over 1600m at Flemington which is Palentino's pet track and distance, so the 1400m at Caulfield may give Bart the edge. At the $8 on offer, however, I think it could be worth backing Palentino here. TURN ME LOOSE bounced back to his best form in the Orr, finishing 2nd to Bart by a length. There's absolutely no reason he can't go close again here from the good draw. HE'S OUR ROKKI the blowout.

Tip: Palentino EW

Race 6

This race is good enough to be a Group 1 with the field we've got here. HUMIDOR looks perfectly poised to win today with a better draw which will allow him to settle more positive in the run. He settled a long last when flashing home to finish 2nd last start but he can settle midfield here from barrier 5 and the step up to 1800m is ideal. He's a Group 1 horse and although this is a Group 1 field, many are first up and he has the benefit of being third up and ready to peak here. I think JAMEKA will need one more run before being a definite winning chance - she will charge home and put the writing on the wall but I don't think she'll win this. Wait for her next start. STRATUM STAR is flying but this is a much better field than what he's been facing.

In saying that, he is rock hard fit and in winning form. TOM MELBOURNE was luckless first up and is wearing a cross-over noseband this prep to help him settle. He is the relatively unknown in the race in that we don't quite know if he is up to Group 2 WFA level. Big watch on EXOSPHERIC first up - he's had a long build up for this race and a couple of jumpouts leading into this, and he did win first up last prep in the UK. THE UNITED STATES might need a run to come good, while the value in the race could be AWESOME ROCK at double figure odds, who always needs a run first up before firing second up. He won second up last prep in Group 2 company over 1600m so he's definitely a winning chance here.

Tip: Humidor / Awesome Rock EW

Race 7

Extremely competitive edition of the Blue Diamond but made slightly easier (or harder?) with the scratching of Jukebox. CATCHY is the obvious horse to beat for mine and I could be slightly biased given I got her at $17 in all-in markets weeks ago. But her form is on the board and she is crying out for the 1200m. I think the horse she beat Limestone is pretty handy and if she can get cover in midfield from barrier 13 she will be mighty hard to beat. I do think the barrier draw brings her stablemate TULIP right into calculations though. I quite like the way her runs have been spaced, and if we tie in the form around Limestone she lines up very well to Catchy.

Tulip was just nosed out of it by Limestone last start and Limestone was beaten very narrowly by Catchy, and could have even won if she got out earlier. If Tulip is ahead of Catchy in the run, which I expect she will be, I think she'll be hard to run down. PROPERTY has been very impressive in his last two starts but Catchy had his measure on debut, so PARIAH could be the best of the colts for Team Snowden. He motored home last start from the back of the field and the extra ground will definitely suit him. I don't think it will be any harm to be drawn wide and avoid the traffic in the straight. Tulip goes narrowly on top for me, but Catchy hardest to beat (and I'll celebrate if she does), no surprises to see Pariah win.

Tip: Tulip

Race 8

Incredibly hard race here for the Oakleigh Plate with any number of winning chances. FLAMBERGE can win after an admirable performance in the Lightning Stakes last week. On the one week back up here and he's got a terrific record at track and distance, and should be peaking third up from a break. FELL SWOOP comes into this first up from a spell and is quickly becoming the new Buffering having placed in numerous Group 1's without winning. His run in the Darley behind Malaguerra and Spieth in the Spring is enough to see him go very close here with the right run. EXTREME CHOICE comes up favourite and if he returns in the same style he did first up last prep when winning the Manikato he will be incredibly hard to beat here.

We saw the 3YO's defeated by the older horses in the Lightning last weekend so the query is whether they are as good as they appeared to be in the Spring, but this horse can go forward or back and with 54kg on his back he is thrown in at the weights. SHEIDEL looks a good bet in the race at double figure odds and it may be worth sticking with her EW here instead of backing something outright. She has a terrific record at this track and distance, gets in with just 53kg and has Joao Moreira booked to ride from barrier 3, so at $10 she looks a winning chance. She was beaten convincingly by HELLBENT last prep and if he is to find his best form then he could be the one to win this. The money suggests he is at his best but his last start didn't convince me he was ready to come out and win an Oakleigh Plate. No surprises to see Darren Weir have him right on his game though. KAEPERNICK the blowout in a field full of chances.

Tip: Sheidel EW (Best Value)

Race 9

SILENT SEDITION looks a pretty safe way to end the day. She absolutely charged home last start under similar conditions but she draws better today and the step up to 1400m is the difference. She looks the best bet of the day. MISS ROSE DE LAGO is much better suited down to mares Group 3 after no luck in Group 1 company first up. She's won 4 from 7 at the track and it would be no surprise to see her bounce back. THAMES COURT didn't get any luck first up in the same race as Silent Sedition so with a more economical run she is sure to figure in the finish, while Abbey Marie didn't get a clear path in the straight and looks to have come back well on her way to longer races.

Tip: Silent Sedition (Best Bet)