So far the 2017 NFL playoffs have been very profitable for the beforeyoubet team. Last week we picked 3/4 winners and hope to go one better with our 2017 NFL divisional playoff betting tips.
NFL Divisional Playoffs Betting Tips
Seattle Seahawks at Atlanta Falcons (Sunday 15th January 8:35am)
The Wildcard games are all said-and-done and it’s onto the Divisional Playoff games. The first game on the cards is an exciting matchup between the Seattle Seahawks and the Atlanta Falcons. The Falcons won the NFC South (11-5) earning themselves a first round bye and a home game at the Georgia Dome. Seattle took care of business last week by eliminating the Detroit Lions (26-6). But we all know the Seahawks are a different team on the road.
In fact, the Seahawks are 0-8 in their last 8 road playoff games as underdogs.
It’s always fun to tune in for the Atlanta Falcons high octane offense. They were the highest scoring team in the NFL during the regular season, averaging 33.8 points per game. That offense is led by arguably the best one-two punch in the league, Matt Ryan and Julio Jones. Matt Ryan finished the season with 4944 passing yards (2nd) and 38 touchdowns. His favourite receiver Julio Jones also finished 2nd in receiving yards with 1409 yards and 6 touchdowns.
The Falcons passing game is complemented with a very balanced running game, which is led by Devonta Freeman. He carried the ball 227 times this season and rushed for over 1000 yards (11 touchdowns).
Earlier this season Atlanta travelled to Seattle and led for most of the fourth quarter, until a final minute field goal from Seattle, giving them a two-point win (26-24 final score). This gives Atlanta a strong motivational betting angle. Also, losing Earl Thomas is a huge factor, especially against a very pass friendly (& efficient) offense like Atlanta.
Prediction: Seattle 22 Atlanta 31
Tip: Atlanta Falcons at the line (-5.0) - $1.92 at Sportsbet
Houston Texans at New England Patriots (Sunday 15th January 12:15pm)
This is the most lopsided matchup in NFL playoff history and the sportsbooks agree. The New England Patriots opened as 16 point favourites against the Houston Texans with a relatively small total of 44.5. This basically means that the sportsbooks believe it will be a very similar game-style as the week 3 game between these two teams. In that game, Tom Brady was out and so was second string quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo. That left 3rd stringer Jacoby Brissett. The result was a 27-0 win for the Patriots.
For the record, I believe this Patriots defense is the best defense left in the playoffs. They allowed the fewest points in the NFL at just 15.6 points per game. They are very stingy against the run allowing just 88.6 yards per game (ranked 3rd) and they gave up only 326.4 total yards of offense per game (ranked 8th). It’s also a nightmare matchup for Texans quarterback Brock Osweiler, who managed just 4.78 passing yards (per attempt) which was the lowest average by any quarterback against this Patriots defense in 2016.
Finally, the man behind the hoodie.
When head coach Bill Belicheck has an extra week to prepare it usually translates into a Patriot win (17-6 record). This won’t just be an easy win, it will be a total annihilation. Even with so much chalk to cover (-16 point spread) I’m very happy to take the Patriots. Tom Brady is so competitive, he won’t want to be outdone by a 3rd string quarterback.
Prediction: Houston 7 New England 38
Tip: New England Patriots at the line (-15.0) - $1.94 at Sportsbet
Pittsburgh Steelers at Kansas City Chiefs (Monday January 16th 5:05am)
This is the closest game on paper according to the sportsbooks. They have listed the Kansas City Chiefs as one point favourites against the Pittsburgh Steelers. I strongly disagree with them. This is a matchup nightmare for Kansas City. It won’t be a blowout like it was in October (Pittsburgh won 43-14) but we do get plenty of value when betting the Steelers. Such as a better quarterback, better running back and better receiver. Plus, a team the has won seven straight games and has all the momentum.
Kansas City are well known for their defensive pressure, but if you look at the numbers they’re behind Pittsburgh in most categories. Kansas City allows more rushing yards per game 121.1 vs 100.0, as well as more passing yards 247.4 vs 242.6. Kansas does allow less points per game (19.4 vs 20.4) but it’s very close. My point is that Pittsburgh is usually only considered to be an offensive team because of the “big 3”. However, they’re a very well balanced team on both sides of the ball.
There is a chance of an “ice storm” at Arrowhead Stadium with a 68% chance of rain. Rain, hail or shine I’m taking the Steelers.
Prediction: Pittsburgh 24 Kansas City 21
Tip: Pittsburgh Steelers at the line (+2.0) - $1.92 at Sportsbet
Green Bay Packers at Dallas Cowboys (Monday January 16th 8:40am)
The final divisional playoff game is between two old NFC foes, the Dallas Cowboys and the Green Bay Packers. Dallas secured the home game at AT&T stadium after finishing first in the NFC East with 13 wins. All the momentum is with Green Bay after winning their last six games. However, this does feel like a tough spot for the Packers. Especially with some key injuries.
Aaron Rodgers is the talk of the town. The American media seems to be obsessed with “Hail Marys” and Rodgers is no doubt the best in the business when it comes to Hail Marys. I’m not a fan of them, especially from a sports betting point of view. In fact, if it came down to Green Bay needing a hail mary touchdown to force overtime, I would feel very comfortable. As Dallas, will have practiced for that exact scenario all week.
The big issue for Green Bay is the injury to Jordy Nelson (Rodgers favourite receiver). He hasn’t practiced all week after suffering two fractured ribs in the game against the Giants. The Packers are not speculating on whether he could play. Even if he does suit up he will be very limited.
The Green Bay Packers feel like a “penny stock tip” that you got from a random guy at a golf course. They might “do this” or might “do that”. Unpredictable. Dallas is a steady blue chip stock, we know exactly what we are going to get every game. They own a big-strong offensive line. A great running game and a calculated quarter back that doesn’t take risks.
Prediction: Green Bay 24 Dallas 31
Tip: Dallas Cowboys at the line (-4.5) - $1.90 at Sportsbet
Take note: Any of the tips in this article are simply the author’s opinion, so bet at your own risk and always gamble responsibly. Also be sure to check out the Before You Bet Twitter Page for all our thoughts in the lead up to bets! Happy punting!
