Happy New Year to everyone and we kick off 2017 with an 8 race card at Flemington which of course features the debut of Black Caviar's first foal, Oscietra!
The track is currently a Good 4, however with a few millimeters of rain predicted on Sunday we may see that get into the Soft 5 region. Here's our preview and tips for every race!
Flemington Betting Tips - New Year's Day
Race 1
Eyes from all over the world will be tuning in to watch OSCIETRA (pictured above) go around here, but at $1.70 it really isn't a race to be betting into. She's won both of her Flemington jump outs in good style but $1.70 for a horse on debut down the Flemington straight is just not worth the risk (even if they are bred as supremely as her!). If you were desperate to bet I would be backing both MISS WAHOO ($6.50) and LIMESTONE ($7.00). Miss Wahoo comes out of a strong enough form race on debut behind Wait For No One and returns from a spell. Kerrin McEvoy rides here for his uncle Tony McEvoy and I expect her to run well. Limestone, on the other hand, also comes out of what I think will prove to be a good form race on debut. The winner was Catchy who looks to be very good and if she improves here she should give a good showing. It would almost be un-Australian to tip against Oscietra here, but I won't be betting here.
Tip: Oscietra
Race 2
Sticking with FLYING LIGHT here after his surprise win over Gallic Chieftan last start. That looks a pretty good formline and from barrier 6 he once again maps to get a great run on speed. His main danger Master Zephyr will have to come from a fair way back after drawing wide, so he may get first run and that could prove the difference. Has finished 1st and 2nd from his two starts over this track and distance so he's every chance of going in again at the $5 mark.
Tip: Flying Light
Race 3
Interesting race with the return of CROCODILE ROCK who looked as if he could be extremely good when he won his first start in Australia in an absolute canter back in April. We haven't seen him since, however, so he's obviously had his problems, and that race he won was over 2100m so the 1600m here is a slight query. However, if he returns anywhere near his best he should be winning this despite the distance and the big weight. The best value in the race is clearly STONE WARRIOR who has come back in good order this prep. He finished 2nd over 1400m last start at Sandown but gets the blinkers on for the first time today and steps up in distance. He's already $26 into $12 but I think he'll start even shorter. Lunar Spin the biggest danger to both of those.
Tip: Crocodile Rock / Stone Warrior EW
Race 4
Two horses stood out for me here. SCANDIMANIA has returned with two wins from two starts this prep and with the 2kg claim for Ben Allen she gets in with a winnable weight once again. Barrier 1 is a slight concern given the pattern of the Flemington straight races recently but she's certainly a good chance to win again. LITTLE INDIAN looks to have returned in great order this prep. She followed up her very good trial win with a big run first up over this track and distance, finishing 4th by half a length. Meets Magna Rossa 2.5kg better off at the weights and she looms as one of the better chances in this race at attractive odds of $8. Prepared to back her each way as my only bet in the race.
Tip: Little Indian EW (Best Value)
Race 5
Prepared to give SNITZON another go here after he stuck on really well after travelling wide the entire race last start. His form previous to that was very good and back down to 57.5kg with senior hoop Mark Zahra on board means he gets his chance to bounce back to the winners stall. Just needs a good ride from the wide gate. I think SECRET PROPHET can turn the tables on Portman with the 2.5kg weight swing and being applied for the first time. Both runs for Weir have been good and he gets his chance to win today.
Tip: Snitzon
Race 6
Three main chances here but it's pretty hard to look past DIVINE MR ARTIE after his dominant first up win over the track and distance last start. He looks to have come back in terrific order and if he repeats that performance he will be mighty tough to beat here. The biggest danger looks to be LORD ASPEN who was a winner over 1400m here during the Spring Carnival. It's worth noting that while he has a great record at the track, none of those have been over the straight 1200m that he faces today. In saying that, he has won 8 of his 15 races so it shouldn't be too much of an issue. The value could be ODYSSEY MOON but only if the track gets into the Soft range. This horse has a terrible record on Good tracks but his record on rain affected ground is outstanding, having only ever missed a place once from 9 starts. If the track gets to Soft, I'll be backing him at $19.
Tip: Divine Mr Artie (Best Bet) / Odyssey Moon EW (only if Soft track)
Race 7
Tough race over the 2800m and you never really know what can pop up but ANNUS MIRABILIS could still be open to more improvement at just his fourth run back from a fairly long spell. He relished the step up to 2400m last start and won in good style; the extra distance should only help him further and he should be nearing peak fitness now. From the inside gate with the minimum weight he should get all the favours. Wouldn't surprise to see BULLISH STOCK run a good race. He was just unsuited by the tempo at the Valley last start and pulled up lame but before that he won easily over 3000m so he could be worth keeping safe.
Tip: Annus Mirabilis
Race 8
Going to need a good ride here but LA SPECIALE has always been a talented horse and it seems as though she is ready to win today after two runs back from a spell. First up she clearly needed the run but she was back near her best last start over 1400m. Up in the weights but down in grade and if she improves as I expect her to then she should be right in the finish. Barrier 13 is the concern but if she can find cover she should be able to reel off a strong finish on the big track.
Tip: La Speciale
Take note: Any of the tips in this article are simply the author’s opinion, so bet at your own risk and always gamble responsibly. Also be sure to check out the Before You Bet Twitter Page for all our thoughts in the lead up to bets! Happy punting!
