With the regular Saturday Melbourne metropolitan meeting this week being held out at Pakenham this meeting has a bit of a Saturday metro feel to it and there should be plenty of people at the track enjoying the moderate temperatures predicted.
Rail out 2m will mean the track plays fairly well. Hard fence will be slightly worse than say one or two lengths off but nothing too major. Ideal position in run will be one off the fence and just in behind the leaders. The same spot that Lyuba and Black Sheep won from last Saturday at the Valley for those looking at replays.
Race 1 - #11 Talk Of California @ $5.50 (Sportsbet Fixed for price indications)
A pretty low confidence race to start off the night. A 1600m maiden and the horse we've landed on has had 14 starts for zero wins. Talk Of California maps very well to get the run her stablemates did in the 1 x 1 on Saturday.
Race 2 - #3 Rockeby Red
A few scratchings here really set things up for Rockeby Red who will roll forward and make his own luck. Hard to see him not in the finish.
Race 3 - #1 Four Carat @ $2.65
Unfortunately, there isn't much fat in the price but Four Carat looks very hard to beat in the third event. He comes through two form races which are much stronger than this and we know how dominant the Waller team can be in the staying events. Expect he starts $2.50.
Race 4 - #2 Brugal Reward @ $3.30
Brugal Reward has shown enough to presume he can progress well beyond this grade. Very good effort first-up. Even modest improvement second-up has him as clearly the horse to beat here. Best roughie in this race is #10 Gwenneth.
Race 5 - #5 Fraulein Rustie @ $11 (BEST VALUE)
The best roughie of the night and a super 1 x 3 bet. Linda Meech is riding in superb form and with some improvement off the first-up effort looks to be right in this race. The horse ran blistering sectionals early last start and has shown the scope for improvement well beyond this class. Can't understand the price, expect she starts single figures.
Race 6 - #7 Alpha Auriga @ $61/$15
It's not a race we have a strong handle on but can definitely have something small 1 x 3 on this galloper who comes out of the Hay Cup. On our ratings he looks to be a $15 chance so absolutely worth something on him at the place quote of $15!
Race 7 - #8 Doncella @ $5
Doncella for the Weir stable is top rater in an otherwise even field. Last start effort only fair but prior to that has produced some ratings which have him very hard to beat in this type race.
Race 8 - #9 Top Me Up @ $2.90 (BEST BET)
Probably the best bet of the night comes in the last race where Top Me Up goes around for the enigmatic Team Hawkes. On our figures he brings the best ratings from Sydney and with the predicted tempo and race shape he is a genuine 6/4 chance.
Take note: Any of the tips in this article are simply the author’s opinion, so bet at your own risk and always gamble responsibly. Also be sure to check out the Before You Bet Twitter Page for all our thoughts in the lead up to bets! Happy punting!
Always Gamble Responsibly.
