The 2016 AFL Finals have not disappointed so far! The Western Bulldogs have been the story of the week after defeating the Hawks, while the Swans are back on track after their win against the Crows. Can the Dogs do it again and beat the Giants in Sydney? Will the Swans get the job done against the Cats?
I have managed winning weeks in the first fortnight of the finals, with my AFL betting tips going 3/3 bets last week for +3.53 units, which brings my finals tally to +6.31 unit profit total! Hopefully that increases this week with my 2016 AFL Preliminary Final Preview & Betting Tips.
AFL Preliminary Final Betting Tips
Geelong Cats vs Sydney Swans (Friday, September 23 at 7:50pm AEST)
If things played out how Sydney expected, they wouldn't be meeting the Cats until next week. But, alas, the Swans stumbled against the Giants a fortnight ago and are now taking a very tough road to ultimate glory. They played great footy against the Crows, but the Cats are well rested and a new challenge altogether. Regardless of the eventual result, this is going to be a cracking game.
The Swans come into this game on the back of a six-day break and with some bruised players. Jarrad McVeigh and Gary Rohan are in some doubt, while Kurt Tippet will be returning from the broken jaw he suffered against the Giants in the first week of the finals. The Cats, meanwhile, have had a week off and are fully fit and ready to fight their way into the Grand Final. It's hard to say whether the Swans will be too tired to challenge this week or if their 'match-hardened' bodies will be an advantage compared to the Cats who have been on the sidelines. Many years ago there was the opinion that having a break can hurt teams, but I don't think that's the case. Although this year the Cats simply need to start the game with the same intensity that got them into the prelim and they will be very tough to beat.
The last time the two sides met the Swans got the win by 38 points at Simonds Stadium and the Swans have won three of the last five. Interestingly, these two sides haven't played in a final since 2005 and haven't played at the MCG since... 1934! For those keeping score, that game was also a preliminary final and the Swans won by 10 goals. I'm not sure you should place any bets based on 80-year old form lines, but it's certainly an interesting little fact.
Both Sydney and Geelong have absolute superstars on their list and we know how important these usual suspects will be for their respective teams. The Swans have a couple more midfield weapons, so the Swans could win the battle in the middle if Tom Mitchell can sit on Dangerfield or Selwood and limit their influence by just a few percent. More important is the fact that both teams have quite inexperienced players deeper on their list. Ultimately, however, I think the Swans bat deeper in this department and where they should truly excel is in stopping the Cats from scoring. Heath Grundy kept Jonathan Patton (GWS) and Josh Jenkins (Crows) goal-less the last two weeks and while Dane Rampe had a stinker against the Giants (despite getting plenty of the ball, his defensive efforts on Cameron were horrible), he was much better against Adelaide. Throw in Nick Smith and the rising Alir Alir and I can't see the Cats finding it easy enough to score - even with Callum Mills on the sideline. I think the Swans can win this in what should be an absolute thriller. I will be taking them in a similar fashion to my play with the Bulldogs last week - two units spread across the line and Swans in a close victory.
Tip: Sydney Swans at the line (+8.5) - $1.92 at Sportsbet (1 unit)
+ Swans by 1-39 points (under 39.5) - $2.88 at Sportsbet (1 unit)
Note: Tip subject to change once teams are named. However, I am relatively confident I will be going with the Swans even if McVeigh and Rohan are sidelined.
GWS Giants vs Western Bulldogs (Saturday, September 24 at 5:15pm AEST)
There are so many storylines surrounding this game. The battling team with a 100+ years of history and one premiership to show for it vs the new kids on the block with five years of history searching for their first premiership. This is also two teams that have already built a bit of a rivalry after the Bulldog captain Ryan Griffen revolted at the end of 2014 and went to the Giants as part of the landmark Tom Boyd deal. Giants' captain Callan Ward is also a former Bulldog. The Bulldog fans will no doubt be very vocal at Spotless Stadium and hoping to continue their 'fairy-tale' run into their first Grand Final appearance in more than 50 years. But they will have to get through a team that decimated the Swans a fortnight ago. That's one scary prospect.
The last time the two teams met was at Spotless Stadium back in Round 9 with the Giants winning by 25 points. The Dogs were without Matthew Boyd, Robert Murphy, Jason Johannisen, Matt Suckling and Marcus Adams in that game which meant their extremely undermanned backline really struggled. Murphy and Adams won't be out there this time around, but the other three will play an important role if the Dogs are any chance. The Bulldog defence is extremely undersized against the Giants, but their defensive style allows for this. They kept Josh J Kennedy and the Eagle forward line quiet in the first week of the finals and will need a similar result this week.
The Giants and Bulldogs are actually very similar teams in the way they defend and the way they try to move the ball. The Bulldogs were able to use their silky handballing and dominant contested ball use to defeat the Hawks, but they won't be able to do the same against the Giants. I lean towards taking the Dogs to win at the current price as the Giants are over-valued at $1.40. I will be taking the Dogs using the Sportsbet 18-point special, but I am quite confident this will be a close game. Neither team has often lost by big margins this season and I can't see this tough prelim final being a blow out. My official play is for either team to keep it within 24 points.
Tip: Either Team by UNDER 24.5 points - $1.83 at Sportsbet (2 units)
Note: Odds for Either Team Under 24.5 are now $2 as the line has moved out to 20 points with money coming for the Giants. Still happy to take this bet.
Take note: Any of the tips in this article are simply the author’s opinion, so bet at your own risk and always gamble responsibly. Also be sure to check out the Before You Bet Twitter Page for all our thoughts in the lead up to bets! Happy punting!
