The 2016 NRL regular season has concluded which means the pinnacle of the year is just around the corner! Continue reading for our NRL Semi Finals Week 1 Preview and Betting Tips.
- - -
Brisbane Broncos vs Gold Coast Titans (Friday 7.50pm AEST)
The Broncos will enter the finals series on the back of five straight victories after they managed to come from behind to defeat the Sydney Roosters last week. They can’t afford to have another slow start though as they were lucky to be trailing by just two points at the halftime break. The side will be without Jack Reed and Kodi Nikorima for the finals but they have played the second half of the season without the two players. James Roberts managed to show off some flair against the Roosters and they will need to continue to get him early ball to allow him to show off his pace. The Broncos will win this match if their forward pack can get the advantage against the Titans pack. Each match from here on in could be the last game of Corey Parker’s career and you can expect him to bring his best to every contest. On the back of a forward pack that should get the upper hand, Anthony Milford and Ben Hunt will be able to show off their skills. They are at their best when they are running the ball, however it is crucial that they balance this and get their talented outside backs involved too.
The Titans were able to scrape into the top eight by the skin of their teeth. They lost to the Cowboys on the weekend but the Raiders were able to do them a favour by smashing the Tigers. The Titans challenged the Cowboys in Townsville but they were ultimately a class behind the defending premiers. Ryan James has been a true leader from the side whilst Ashley Taylor has been brilliant all year. The addition of Jarryd Hayne seems to have hindered the side and if he isn’t able to produce his best this weekend then they won’t be causing an upset. The Titans side is young and growing and they will be a challenge in the future but they are still a couple of years away from running deep into the finals.
TIP: Broncos 1-12 @ $3.15 with CrownBet
Canberra Raiders vs Cronulla Sharks (Saturday 5.35pm AEST)
The Sharks had booked themselves in for a home semi-final and were the favourites to win the minor premiership. Fast forward a month and they are now faced with the daunting task of having to take on the Raiders in Canberra. The side hasn’t been clicking in attack and I believe it comes down to Ben Barba falling out of form. Throughout the first 20 rounds of the competition, Barba was back to his brilliant best and a lot of experts were comparing his performances to the 2012 season when he won the Dally M medal. He was dangerous every time he touched the ball and was the link between the halves and outside backs. In recent weeks they have been out of sync and they need to turn it around quickly.
The Raiders forwards are arguably the most intimidating in the competition. Their go forward sucks in the opposition defence, which creates a lot of opportunities for their dangerous ball runners out wide. Joseph Leiluia and Jordan Rapana have one of the best combinations in the league and are lethal on the right edge. Gerard Beale and Sosai Feki will have their hands full to contain the pair.
It isn’t all positive for the Raiders though, as two weeks after losing Blake Austin for the remainder of the season Jack Wighton may have suffered the same fate. However, it is for a different reason as he will face the judiciary for a shoulder charge. We will find out whether he will play later on tonight and we will update our tip accordingly.
UPDATE: It seems like a rarity within the NRL but for once justice and common sense has prevailed. Jack Wighton has not been charged with a shoulder charge and will be free to play this weekend. It is a huge inclusion for the green machine as he has been terrific in the back half of the season. He has been making minimal errors whilst he has been getting the ball to his dangerous centres quickly and has been damaging when running the ball himself. If he wasn't taking the field we would have been leaning the way of the Sharks but as he will be putting on a jersey we have him contributing towards a big home victory.
TIP: Raiders 1-12 @ $3.00 with William Hill
Melbourne Storm vs North Queensland Cowboys (Saturday 7.55pm AEST)
The match of the round pits the minor premiers against the defending premiers. It will be a massive contest, as both sides will enter the match on the back of great form. The Storm were able to put on one of their best defensive efforts of the season as they defeated the Sharks at home. It was something that had slipped away from them over the past month. The Storm relied on their defence earlier in the season when they defeated the Cowboys at Suncorp stadium and they backed that up with another victory against the defending premiers, however Johnathan Thurston missed that much due to his hamstring injury.
The Cowboys have the benefit of having a full strength squad with only Matt Scott in doubt of playing. However, the tough front row forward will no doubt pull his jersey on this weekend. Their forward pack is where they could win this match as if they are able to get the upper hand then their backs will be able to benefit. The Storm will be looking to get under the skin of Thurston and get up in his face and this will mean that Michael Morgan will have to step up. When Morgan plays at a high level the Cowboys generally win as it releases the pressure off Thurston. We are predicting a big game from Morgan and the Cowboys as the side will be eager for a week off and just one game from returning to the biggest stage to defend their title.
TIP: Cowboys @ $2.20 with Ladbrokes
Penrith Panthers vs Canterbury Bankstown Bulldogs (Sunday 4.10pm AEST)
The Bulldogs will enter the finals series with absolutely no momentum at all as they have suffered three straight losses. This has seen the side drop out of a top four position and into the bottom half of the eight. They have a great forward pack but there heavy involvement with the ball in hand can slow down their attack. The halves pairing of Moses Mbye and Josh Reynolds has its moments but generally the two don’t play at a high level along side each other. The sides kicking game could let them down as they will need to earn repeat sets to apply pressure to their opponents and they often run the ball on the last tackle. This is a big downfall for the side and it could cost them throughout the finals. Will Hopoate has played the majority of the year at fullback and he has chosen not to play due to his religious reasons, which moves Brett Morris from the wing into the position for the first time in over a year.
The Panthers have had a terrific back half off the season and it is largely due to their young core of side playing well together. Nathan Cleary has been terrific in his first season in first grade and it is still hard to believe he is just 18 years old and playing halfback so calmly. Bryce Cartwright has been dangerous at five-eighth whilst Matt Moylan has recaptured his best form in his last two matches. He was unstoppable against the Sea Eagles and they will need him at his best this weekend. The Bulldogs are a side that is very inconsistent and we believe the Panthers forward pack will be able to match it with the Dogs and their backline will have more spark to get them over the line.
TIP: Panthers 1-12 @ $3.10 with Sportsbet
Take note: Any of the tips in this article are simply the author’s opinion, so bet at your own risk and always gamble responsibly. Also be sure to check out the Before You Bet Twitter Page for all our thoughts in the lead up to bets! Happy punting!
