The 2016 NRL season threw up a lot of upsets over the weekend as the Sharks lost their first game in sixteen matches whilst the Cowboys weren’t able to get the job done agains the Tigers despite the return of Johnathan Thurston. Continue reading for our NRL Round 23 Preview and Betting Tips.
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Canterbury Bankstown Bulldogs vs Manly Sea Eagles (Thursday 7.50pm AEST)
The Bulldogs earned a victory on the weekend against the struggling Newcastle Knights that has moved them into the top four. However, they were far from their best and thee Knights did give them a late scare. Their halves pairing continues to struggle to apply pressure to their opponents as their kicking game on the last is very poor and they will need to drastically improve in this area if they are going to have success this season as repeat sets will be vital.
The Sea Eagles suffered a devastating 1-point loss to the Eels, which has all but ended their season. The loss snapped their four-game winning streak and now they are faced with a difficult task of having to win all of their final four games.
The Bulldogs forward pack has a lot more size to it than the Sea Eagles and we believe this will be the biggest telling point in the match. The Dogs should be able to gain the territorial advantage and if they are able to be disciplined it should be a comfortable but close victory for them as they struggle to score a lot of points.
UPDATE: Jamie Lyon has been named to return from injury which gives the side more stability in the halves but it won't be enough to see the Sea Eagles cause an upset.
TIP: Bulldogs 1-12 @ $3.00 with Sportsbet
Brisbane Broncos vs Parramatta Eels (Friday 7.50pm AEST)
Despite having nothing to play for but pride and having one of the worst seasons off the field in recent history, the Eels are continuing to turn up each week. Coach Brad Arthur received a well-deserved contract extension, as he has clearly been a solid rock for the players and club throughout the year. Their defence has been one of the best in the competition and they showed it against the Sea Eagles as they tackled their way to victory in a tight contest. They have lost the majority of their spine and other key players due to the salary cap scandal and injuries.
The Broncos bounced back to winning ways but there are still plenty of questions surrounding the side. The side was dominant over the first part of the season and the State of Origin period has really derailed their season. However, we are predicting it is only a matter of time before their halves click once again and they begin to put together those big performances. Sam Thaiday was included in the starting line up with Alex Glenn being pushed to the bench and the veteran starred in an 80-minute performance. The rest of the forward pack needs to lift their game and on the back of this the halves will have more space. The Broncos should come out on top with the advantage of playing at Suncorp stadium but we wouldn’t be surprised if the Eels pulled off another upset here.
TIP: Eels +12.5 @ $1.90 with CrownBet
Wests Tigers vs Gold Coast Titans (Saturday 3pm AEST)
Super Saturday will start off with an entertaining match between the ninth and 10th placed sides that will be fighting it out for their season. The Tigers were without Luke Brooks against the Cowboys and it is unlikely he will make an early return this weekend as he has already ruled himself out. However, Mitchell Moses has continued to play at a high level as the five-eighth took control of the game and led his side to victory against the defending champions.
The Hayne Plane touched down on the Gold Coast last week and he made an immediate impact on the side both positively and negatively. He pulled off a terrific try saving tackle on Bodene Thompson but later in the match he threw an intercept pass that led directly to a try. It will be interesting to see exactly where Hayne will play on the field this weekend. He was at five-eighth on the weekend and whilst he is a good playmaker he is a lot better when he can pick and choose when to get involved and has the freedom of roaming to both sides of the field. It would be far better for the side if he is picked to play at fullback and it would create an interesting match up between Hayne and James Tedesco. Hayne of course was the New South Wales fullback before leaving to chase his NFL dream and Tedesco made his debut in the position in Game 3 of this series.
The side that is able to make the most of their opportunities whilst avoiding silly errors will win this match. These two sides have been their own worst enemies at times. The Titans have a much better defence and have been strong on the road winning four of their nine games. There will still be a lot of attention given to Hayne this weekend but the return of Tyrone Roberts cold be the biggest in for the Titans and we are predicting them to earn the win on the road.
UPDATE: Hayne has been named to make his starting debut for the Titans but it is in the halves. We believe this doesn't allow Hayne to play at his full potential as he was forced to stick to one edge on the weekend whilst he plays at a higher level when he is thinking run first and pass second.
TIP: Titans 1-12 @ $3.20 with William Hill
New Zealand Warriors vs South Sydney Rabbitohs (Saturday 5.30pm AEST)
The Warriors are back in the top-eight but are a part of a huge logjam. They have been consistent for over two months now and their position on the ladder is impressive considering the injuries the side has suffered. They lost Isaac Luke throughout the week and he won’t return for a month whilst they have been without Roger Tuivasa-Sheck for nearly the entire season. Shaun Johnson has been able to overcome the pressure on his shoulders and he has played with a lot of freedom in recent weeks. However, a lot of that can be contributed to the forward pack laying a great platform for him. Bodene Thompson is dangerous on the right edge whilst Ben Matulino, Jacob Lilyman and Albert Vete are fast becoming a strong combination up front.
Meanwhile the Bunnies produced a performance that no one saw coming as they almost produced an upset against the Storm. It is hard to see them putting together a similar effort when they are on the road for a second straight match and it will be tough having trips to Melbourne and then New Zealand back to back.
TIP: Warriors 13+ $2.30 with Ladbrokes
St George Illawarra Dragons vs Cronulla Sharks (Saturday 7.30pm AEST)
The Sharks had their wake up call last week as they were beaten for the first time in sixteen matches whilst they suffered their first loss on home soil for the season. Their defence didn’t pack the normal punch it did but a lot of experts believe it is a loss the side needed to have as you would rather it now than in the finals.
The Dragons season has officially come to an end as their awful points differential means they won’t be able to make it into the top-eight. They have lost five straight matches and their attack has let them down all season. The side managed a late charge against the Broncos but crucial errors by their halves that were the wrong decisions ultimately led to their loss.
The Sharks are sitting in second position on the ladder and they will be able to return to winning ways this weekend. They have a superior defence and attack to the Dragons and will win by a big margin.
UPDATE: Josh Dugan makes his return from injury for the Dragons and will start at fullback as opposed to the centre position. It is a massive boost for the Red V but it won't change much as the Sharks will want to bounce back after their disappointing performances against the Titans and Raiders.
TIP: Sharks 13+ @ $2.00 with CrownBet
Newcastle Knights vs Penrith Panthers (Sunday 2pm AEST)
The Panthers were able to grab an impressive win against the Roosters on Monday night. Nathan Cleary is continuing to play well above his years and it is remarkable the calmness he shows for a halfback who is only 18. He controls the team brilliantly, picks the right option and isn’t afraid to take on the defensive line. It is likely he will have a new halves partner this week with Te Marie Martin making a successful return from injury in NSW cup. This will push Bryce Cartwright into the backrow and make the right hand edge of the Panthers very dangerous.
The Knights lost their 14th straight match and it doesn’t look like changing anytime soon. The team is young, inexperienced and have only won one match this year. They are likely to finish the season with the worst record in the NRL era and with the Panthers fighting for a top-eight spot they won’t go easy on the struggling side.
UPDATE: There are no changes to the Panthers side that beat the Roosters on Monday night with Martin not being named. However, it would be a perfect match for him to return as it should be a comfortable win against the Knights. If they choose to play without him we are assuming coach Anthony Griffin will be sticking with the halves pairing of Cleary and Cartwright for the remainder of the season.
TIP: Panthers -15.5 @ $1.90 with Sportsbet
Sydney Roosters vs North Queensland Cowboys (Sunday 4pm AEST)
The Cowboys lost their second straight match on the weekend as their attack was the worst it has been all year. They dropped the ball consistently and bombed a couple of tries. This only means danger for the Roosters, as the Cowboys will want to respond and show the rest of the competition why they are the defending champions. The scrutiny placed on Johnathan Thurston for his poor performance will just add fire to the belly as the star halfback was returning from a hamstring injury.
The Roosters were without Mitchell Pearce against the Panthers and they clearly lacked direction with two young halves steering the team around. Two late tries when the match was already decided made the score line look more favourable but they were embarrassed throughout the match. If Pearce is able to return from injury he will contribute to the scores remaining closer but the Cowboys should still run away with this one.
TIP: Cowboys 13+ @ $2.75 with Ladbrokes
Canberra Raiders vs Melbourne Storm (Monday 7pm AEST)
The Raiders were already in the top four but whether they were real premiership contenders was tested on the weekend against the Sharks and they sent a real message to the rest of the competition. The Raiders were all out attack against the Sharks and they were the first team to leave Shark Park this season victorious. They face another test this weekend as they face the Storm but this time they will have the advantage of playing on home soil. The Raiders spine is proving to be one of the most improved in the competition with the Englishman Josh Hodgson continuing to have his best season in the NRL whilst Jack Wighton is finding his feet at fullback. Their outside backs are great in attack whilst solid in defence and that could be the difference this weekend. The loss of Blake Austin will be a hit for the side but they have a solid replacement in Sam Williams.
The Storm have been pushed to the test in a lot of matches this season and the experience of Cameron Smith and Cooper Cronk continues to get them over the line. These two players are both future immortals and they always produce their best on the big occasions. However, we are going to be riding the Green Machine bandwagon in this one as we are sticking with the inform side to continue its rise.
UPDATE: Blake Austin has been named to play but his shoulder injury will be assessed throughout the week.
TIP: Raiders @ $2.35 with Ladbrokes
Take note: Any of the tips in this article are simply the author’s opinion, so bet at your own risk and always gamble responsibly. Also be sure to check out the Before You Bet Twitter Page for all our thoughts in the lead up to bets! Happy punting!
