Racing returns to Eagle Farm this weekend for the first time in 660 days and what a cracking card we have to look forward to!
We have a monster 10 race card due to last week's meeting being abandoned due to the wild weather. The Group 1 Queensland Oaks and the Group 2 QTC Cup join three other Group 1's on the card - the JJ Atkins, the Queensland Derby and the Stradbroke Handicap - to make it an all Group 1 Quaddie!
The track seems to have dried out well from last week's flooding and currently sits at a Good 4. With fine weather and no rain predicted we should be racing on a great surface.
BMW JJ Atkins 1600m - Group 1
The Group 1 for the two-year-olds sees a field of 18 line up and though it doesn't appear a race of great depth, I wouldn't be surprised to see an upset here.
The early money has been for Godolphin's Souchez but I thought his effort last start was relatively disappointing, even though he missed the start. I'm sure the bigger Eagle Farm track will give him a chance to atone and if he jumps cleanly he is certainly a top chance, but I prefer others at this point.
I don't think Attention has done much wrong and at the odds I'd prefer to be backing him over Souchez. Of course he is a query at the trip but he has won previously at 1400m and will have a headstart on most of the field. From barrier 2 he should jump and run, but the Eagle Farm track won't favour him as much as Doomben.
Sacred Elixir is the really interesting runner who has had two starts in Australia after traveling over from New Zealand. His first start here was a win on the Sunshine Coast in a moderate race over 1400m. He then contested the Sires' Produce Stakes at Doomben last start where he finished midfield behind Attention, but he ran on well which suggests the 1600m will suit him more than most. He will be forced back from the wide barrier but look for him late.
Candika has winning claims after her most recent outing where she finished 4th behind Attention, beaten a length. If we go back through her form we will see she ran 3rd behind Golden Slipper winner Capitalist on the Gold Coast which is certainly strong form for this. The distance should suit her.
One I am very keen to have a nibble at big odds is Robbie Laing's runner Jaws Of Steel. He won nicely at his second start at Mornington despite pulling up with mucus and then went on to contest the Champagne Stakes at Group 1 level, where he blundered badly in the straight. He returned 3 weeks ago at Flemington over 1400m where he settled last and ran on well to finish 3rd. He's since been gelded and the 1600m looks ideal for him. Certainly one I give a good chance to.
1st JAWS OF STEEL
2nd SACRED ELIXIR
3rd ATTENTION
4th SOUCHEZ
Channel 7 Queensland Derby 2400m - Group 1
The Group 1 for the three-year-old stayers with another big field of 18 set to line up.
There really is only 5 horses I see as winning chances here but it is difficult to separate them: Howard Be Thy Name, Etymology, Mackintosh, Encosta Line and Eagle Way.
Howard Be Thy Name was the winner of the Group 1 South Australian Derby two starts ago before dropping back to 2200m and running 3rd behind Mackintosh last start, beaten by a head. Given he won over 2500m in the Derby there really isn't much concern with the step up to 2400m and with the good gate he is sure to take a power of beating.
Etymology ran 2nd to Howard Be Thy Name in the Derby last start which was somewhat of a surprise given he had been disappointing in the lead up. He was only beaten half a length on that occasion but it's hard to see him turning the tables, especially given he draws barrier 19.
Mackintosh can't have done much more in the lead up to this race. He's won his last three starts and defeated both Howard Be Thy Name and Eagle Way at his most recent outing. He only won that very narrowly, however, and may have been suited by the on-pace favoured Doomben. I don't think the step up to 2400m will be any issue but I do think Howard Be Thy Name might just have his measure.
Encosta Line is coming through some different races to the more favoured horses. This horse has been racing in restricted races in Sydney, the most recent of which he won by 4 lengths at Rosehill. He continues to improve with the step up in distances and the Chris Waller-Hugh Bowman combination is one that catches the eye.
Eagle Bay is the only other realistic winning chance. As mentioned above, he ran 2nd to Mackintosh last start over 2200m where he settled well back and ran on very well. That suggests to me the step up to 2400m is ideal for him. He will once again be well back from barrier 11 but the Eagle Farm track should give him every chance.
A lot will depend on how this race is run. I do think the Eagle Farm track will give those coming from the back a much better chance than Doomben, which might make it difficult for Mackintosh who is likely to be right up on speed.
1st HOWARD BE THY NAME
2nd EAGLE WAY
3rd MACKINTOSH
4th ENCOSTA LINE
AAMI Stradbroke Handicap 1400m - Group 1
What a tremendous race this is!I count about 6 or 7 genuine winning chances with one or two more that could win without surprising. Black Heart Bart, Malaguerra, Music Magnate, Azkadellia, Under The Louvre, Counterattack and Kaepernick all hold obvious claims, while Delectation just cannot be completely ruled out of this kind of race.
Black Heart Bart deservedly broke through for Group 1 success in The Goodwood last start after two very narrow Group 1 defeats, along with a Group 3 win, leading into it. He has to carry top weight here but he's proven his ability to carry more weight than this at WFA Group 1 level so don't let that worry you too much. Draws reasonably well and he's flying so rates well again.
Malaguerra bounced back from his All Aged Stakes disappointment to also win a Group 1 last start - the BTC Cup. He drops in weight from that win and has had a few weeks to freshen up so should be coming into this cherry ripe. We can expect him to go forward once again but he faces the same issue of a completely different track to what he won on at Doomben. Can't rule him out.
Music Magnate surprised everyone last start with a win in the Doomben 10,000, coming off a ridiculously hot tempo to win well. He drops 3.5kg here and is actually better off at the weights than Azkadellia. Undefeated at the distance and I can't quite understand why his odds are so much higher than Azkadellia's. Draws well, goes well again.
Azkadellia continues to race at the top of her game. Her 2nd in the Doomben 10,000 was brave but just found one better after 7 weeks off. Sure to be fitter for this, draws well and finally gets a big track that she can extend on. Loves the distance and rates as the one to beat, despite the weight difference with Music Magnate.
Under The Louvre did last start what Under The Louvre does, which is winding up from the back and storming home to grab 2nd! He will once again go back and wind up on the big track here, and at the weights he's actually well suited. The query is whether he is as good at 1400m as some of the others here but look for him late.
Counterattack was backed off the map last start and won accordingly despite traveling 3 wide the entire trip. It was a strong win and he seems to be coming of age now. He faces a much stiffer test here but is down in the weights and gets a great jockey on board - Joao Moreira. Think there is a few ahead of him but a win wouldn't shock me.
Kaepernick won very impressively at Scone first up. Much, much harder race here but he should improve again here and he has a fantastic 2nd up record so he can't be discounted.
This really does shape as a super race! Hard to split about 6 of them and I do think Under The Louvre can run a big race but this is the way we've gone:
1st AZKADELLIA
2nd BLACK HEART BART
3rd MALAGUERRA
4th MUSIC MAGNATE
