Game: Melbourne Vs. Sydney (Sunday, June 7th at 1.10pm AEST – MCG)
Market: AFL SuperCoach: Ryan O’Keefe ($1.80) Vs. Jarrad McVeigh ($1.97) - Sporstbet
Sunday’s AFL Round 15 game between the Melbourne Demons and the Sydney Swans is going to be a blood bath. The Dees will certainly go out onto the MCG with some new confidence after defeating the Western Bulldogs last week, but they will surely be quickly brought back to reality with a hiding from the Swans.
Obviously there is no value on the Swans at $1.02 head-to-head and with the line at an unattractive 60 points, it may be too hard to punt on this game. It’s times like these that we look at the SuperCoach and AFL Fantasy Dream Team markets at SportsBet and see if there is any value hiding.
Enter: Ryan O’Keefe Vs. Jarrad McVeigh
Both of these players are superstars of the Sydney Swans and have played, and continue to play, integral roles in the Swans success. In many ways they are both equally important to the Swans and both equally talented. However, the fact of the matter is that Ryan O’Keefe is historically a more prolific SuperCoach scorer compared to McVeigh and especially over the last six weeks or so.
McVeigh has been solid in 2013, averaging 105.62 SC points. O’Keefe has had a similar year to McVeigh, averaging just slightly more with 105.69 SC points.
So how can there be value on betting on these guys when just .07 SC points separate their 2013 average? One word – form.
Ryan O’Keefe is just simply in better form than Jarrad McVeigh at the moment. In addition, O’Keefe has been playing full games in the midfield for the Swans over the last several weeks, while McVeigh has often played a role off half back.
In the last three weeks O’Keefe has managed 116, 95 and 136 SC points, averaging 115.7, while McVeigh has scored 91, 98 and 105, averaging 98. In addition, O’Keefe has a great past record against Melbourne, scoring 136 and 141 in his last two outings and averaging 96.75 over eight career games against the Dees. McVeigh on the other hand only scored 78 and 91 in his last two games against Melbourne and averages just 76.75 over eight career games – which is McVeigh’s third worst team-specific SuperCoach point scoring average, with only a worse average when up against Richmond and Collingwood.
Another way to look at it is see how these boys have fared against a comparable team this year and in many ways the only comparable team, on form, to Melbourne is the GWS (Sydney haven’t played the Bulldogs yet). O’Keefe didn’t mind playing against a dud team like GWS, scoring a solid 107 SC points, while McVeigh managed 89 against the GWS.
Verdict: Jarrad McVeigh and Ryan O’Keefe area clearly similar talents when it comes to SuperCoach scoring, but O’Keefe has shown enough form in recent weeks and in his history against the Dees to back him in the head-to-head SuperCoach market at Sportsbet.
Take note: The above tip is simply the author’s opinion, so bet at your own risk and always bet responsibly. Happy punting!
