AFL Round 15: Carlton Vs. Collingwood betting tip

Game: Carlton Vs. Collingwood (Friday, July 5^th at 7.50 AEST– MCG)
Market: Carlton ($1.65) Vs. Collingwood ($2.30) head-to-head - SportsBet

There should be well over 80,000 people at the MCG to watch Carlton play Collingwood in a Round 15 Friday night blockbuster. The Blues are currently 9^th on the ladder, with the Pies sitting 8^th. This is a tough game to call, what with the Blues failing to impress in the 2013 season, only defeating one team above them on the ladder and the Pies well and truly underperforming this season, along with facing some injury woes. However, it’s sure to be a highly competitive game and that’s where Sportsbet comes in.

Earlier in the week we wrote an article about the huge value which is being offered on Sportbet this weekend. For both this game and Saturday night’s match between Hawthorn and Geelong, Sportsbet is giving punters a 20-point buffer on their first head-to-head bet on each game. 

But which team should you back on Friday night?

Some would argue that taking the extra value on Collingwood at around $2.30-$2.40 would be the way to go with this sort of promotion. After all, it’s the big Friday night kind of game that the Pies love and the Pies did beat the Blues 117-100 back in round two of this year. However, Quinten Lynch and Harry O’Brien are new outs. Most concering is also Collingwood’s form slump which saw them get embarrassed by Port Adelaide last week. Carlton on the other hand have had a better year than their ladder position suggests and despite Carlton losing Heath Scotland this week, they will be gaining stars Andrew Carrazzo and Marc Murphy.

While there are plenty of reasons to bet on Carlton and even enough reasons for some to get their hard-earned on the Pies, the more important thing to look at in this game, especially with this 20-point buffer is how Carlton simply haven’t been losing games by more than three goals this year. In fact, only one of Carlton’s seven loses has been by more than three goals. Check out Carlton’s losing margins from the 2013 season below.

Check those stats out. Carlton just haven’t let teams blow them out this season. Collingwood on the other hand? Well their losing margins have been a different story, losing by 55, 46, 27, 47 and 25 points. That just somewhat proves that once Collingwood fall too far behind, they just let teams run over them and therefore it's hard to see this 20 point promotion at Sportsbet being suitable for the Pies. Take the 20 points on Carlton at Sportsbet and sit back and enjoy a big Friday night game.

Verdict: Carlton is probably the right side to bet on against Collingwood on Friday night anyway, but with stats like Carlton’s losing margins this year and with a +20 point buffer, we will be happy to back Carlton head-to-head and effectively freeroll for a win. Be quick though, they have moved from $1.70 into $1.65 on Friday morning alone!

Bet On: Carlton Hd-Hd vs Collingwood at SportsBet ($1.65)