Two teams on the outside looking in of the top 8 clash on Easter Sunday, as the Sharks head north to the hunter to take on the Knights at McDonald Jones Stadium. Despite being the current fourth favourite to win the competition, it’s been a tough start to the season for the Sharks, who sit 11th on the ladder. They get a great chance here to bounce back inside the top 8, as they take on a Knights team devoid of any attack. An interesting clash awaits.
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Newcastle Knights vs Cronulla Sharks
Location: McDonald Jones Stadium, Newcastle
Date: Sunday, 20th March
Time: 4:05pm AEST
Odds: Knights ($3.35) vs Sharks ($1.33)
Line: Sharks -9.5
Points: 42.5
Odds and lines provided with thanks to Ladbrokes. Note that odds and lines can fluctuate throughout the week and are correct at the time of writing.
Match Preview
The Knights are coming off a terrible showing last week at home, going down 20-4 to the Tigers. The Knights’ only try was a 79th minute garbage time try to Fletcher Sharpe. It was nearly their second straight game failing to score a point, after going down 20-0 the week before to the Bulldogs. Kalyn Ponga was horrible, and they need way more from their main man if they are any chance this week against the Sharks.
The Sharks looked far better last week against the Sea Eagles in Perth, after losing two straight heading into the game. They were the dominant team through 50 minutes, leading 14-0 (three tries to zero), however they allowed two quick tries to Manly in a span four minutes, to cut the lead to two. They managed to hold on, but the fact they struggled to put away a Manly side that has looked horrible for a month, is a slight concern for the Sharks.
These teams met once last year, in round 24 at Sharks Stadium, with the Sharks closing 8.5-point home favourites, with a total of 49.5. The Knights were well on top, leading 18-10 with a little over 15 minutes left. The Sharks managed a penalty goal and try, to push the game into Golden Point, where rookie Daniel Atkinson slotted an 85th minute field goal to secure the victory. To be fair, the Sharks were missing both starting halves and Kayal Iro, so it was a solid win from behind.
This game opened with the Sharks as short 2.5-point road favourites on the lookahead, before re-opening at 9.5. That’s a massive shift in the market, and punters haven’t been swayed, as the Sharks still sit 9.5-point favourite, and you have to pay a little juice to still get them under 10. I make the Sharks 7.5-point favourites, so see some value in the Knights, but their lack of attack scares me off here.
Looking at the total, it opened at 42.5, and looks as though it may get bet up to 43.5. I can’t get to this total and do see some value in the total. Given the game is on a Sunday afternoon in cracking conditions, this won’t be a big bet, but I like the under here.
Under 42.5 points
$1.95 (1 Unit)
Same Game Multi
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Leg 1: Sharks ML – Sharks are better across the park, and unless a Kalyn Ponga masterclass comes out of nowhere, the Sharks cruise to victory.
Leg 2: Samuel Stonestreet (1+ try) – Stonestreet has 12 tries in 11 games for the Sharks across his first two seasons in the league. Knows how to get to the line.
Leg 3: Bradman Best (1+ try) – Best continues to look the most dangerous option close to the line for the Knights. The Sharks’ right-side defence concedes 45% of all tries this season, and Best will pepper them all game.
SGM Odds: $9.50 at BoomBet
