Saturday football kicks off at the MCG with Melbourne looking to end their winless start to the season, when they host the in-form Fremantle. Can the Demons show something in what has been a horror five weeks? Or will the Dockers extend their winning streak to four games? Find out our thoughts and tips for the match below!
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Melbourne vs Fremantle
Location: MCG – Melbourne
Date: Saturday, 19th April
Time: 1:20pm AEST
Odds: Melbourne ($3.02) vs Fremantle ($1.40)
Line: Fremantle -13.5
Points: 170.5
Odds and lines provided with thanks to Dabble. Note that odds and lines can fluctuate throughout the week, and are correct at the time of writing.
Match Preview
Melbourne’s season continues to get worse, after a 39 point defeat against Essendon during Gather Round. It was a similar story for the Demons, who won clearances and inside 50’s, but never looked like threatening on the scoreboard as their forwards once again failed to impact.
The Demons converted only 15.7% of their inside 50’s against Essendon into goals, after converting just 12% the week before against Geelong. Melbourne are the worst team in the AFL at turning inside 50’s into goals, converting just 16.6% of their inside 50’s into goals this season.
Fremantle have recovered from an 0-2 start, with three straight wins after accounting for Richmond by 61 points. Josh Treacy booted 6 goals to move to equal first in the Coleman Medal race, while Andy Brayshaw (31 disposals) and Caleb Serong (29 disposals) controlled proceedings through the middle of the ground.
Unlike Melbourne, Fremantle’s attacking game has drastically improved over the last three weeks. The Dockers have kicked scores of 106, 97 and 108 points, after averaging just 67 points over the first two weeks of the season. Melbourne’s defence has been leaking points this season, conceding 100 points per game, ranking 15th in the AFL.
How Melbourne structure their midfield will be of great interest, given the lack of polish the Dees have had coming out of the centre. Clayton Oliver is averaging 29 possessions per game, but is struggling to impact with a kicking efficiency of just 55%. Christian Petracca is averaging just 24 disposals per game, which is on track to be his lowest output since 2020 - excluding last year given he only played 13 games. Jack Viney has also looked well off the pace, the Demons need to make changes or risk seeing another repeat performance.
The Dockers are going to have a massive advantage with their work inside forward 50, and you only need to look at the season goal kicking tally to see the discrepancy between both sides. Fremantle are led by Josh Treacy (17 goals), who has been supported by Michael Frederick (9), Jye Amiss (6) and Murphy Reid (6). Following their top four goal kickers, Fremantle have five players who have kicked at least 3 goals.
Comparatively Christian Petracca is Melbourne’s leading goal kicker with 6 goals, with Kade Chandler (4), Jacob Van Rooyen (4) and Bayley Fritsch (3) having very little scoreboard impact as genuine forwards. The Demons have scored just 61 points per game this season, ranked 17th in the AFL, with only West Coast scoring fewer points.
This should be a walk in the park for the Dockers, who have a strong recent record against Melbourne. Fremantle have won 4 of the last 5 matches between the two sides, including victories in their last two games at the G against Melbourne. Fremantle won both games against the Demons last season by margins of 50 and 92 points.
Fremantle -13.5
$1.78 (2 Units)
Same Game Multi
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Andrew Brayshaw 30+ Disposals: Andy Brayshaw has been red hot over the Dockers three game winning streak with performances of 31, 29 and 29 disposals. Brayshaw is averaging 30 disposals per game over his last six games against Melbourne, and had 41 disposals the last time he faced the Dees.
Kysaiah Pickett Anytime Goalscorer: Kozzy Pickett has provided a big spark for the Dees since returning from suspension, kicking 2 goals against the Bombers last week, and 3 behinds against Geelong the week prior. Pickett has kicked 7 goals from his last 6 games against the Dockers.
Murphy Reid Anytime Goalscorer: The Dockers young gun continues to hit the scoreboard, taking his season tally to 6 goals from 5 games after kicking a goal against Richmond, and it could have been a bigger day out if he kicked accurately. Reid gets in the right places and has regularly in scoring chains, averaging 6.6 score involvements per game.
SGM Odds: $3.10 at BoomBet
