Matchday 33 of the English Premier League sees some crucial clashes in the battle for European football. Brentford vs Brighton and Fulham vs Chelsea will have massive implications on the makeup of the top half of the table. As always, Jack Tobin has you covered with his best bets of the weekend.
EPL 2024-25: Matchday 33 Preview & Betting Tips
Aston Villa vs Newcastle
Villa Park, Sunday 20th April, 2:30am AEST
The two hottest teams in the Premier League face off on Sunday morning, when Newcastle heads to Birmingham to take on Aston Villa. Newcastle have won five straight games in the Premier League to storm into third place, with a 5-0 win over Crystal Palace on Thursday morning. Eddie Howe’s side have been dominant over the last fortnight, with three wins by an aggregate scoreline of 12-1. Aston Villa have won four straight games, with an aggregate score of 8-1 over their last three games.
Newcastle’s attacking form has been outstanding, shooting up to third in goals for (61), whilst also ranking as the sixth best defensive team having conceded just 40 goals. Newcastle are getting the job done at both ends of the pitch, and are now four points clear inside the top four. They’re controlling games with strong defence and dynamic ball movement, still creating plenty of chances despite not dominating possession, and they’re making the most of their opportunities.
Newcastle have definitely had the better of this matchup, winning five of the last six Premier League matches between the two teams. Not only are they winning, but they’re winning comfortably with Newcastle’s last four wins against Aston Villa coming by scorelines of 4-0, 5-1, 3-1 and 3-0. This will be the best game of the weekend, between two red hot teams, but Newcastle will be too strong in this matchup.
Newcastle to Win
$2.80 (1.5 Units)
Fulham vs Chelsea
Craven Cottage, Sunday 20th April, 11:00pm AEST
Chelsea’s Champions League hopes are slipping away, with just one win in their last four games seeing Chelsea fall out of the top five. Chelsea take on West London rival Fulham at Craven Cottage on Sunday morning, needing to win to keep themselves in the race for a Champions League position. Fulham are coming off a 1-0 defeat against Bournemouth, which has seen Fulham fall to ninth on the table, six points behind sixth placed Chelsea.
Fulham have been up and down over the past two months, going loss/win/loss/win/loss/win/loss over their last seven Premier league games. The lack of consistency has cost Fulham badly in their aspirations of playing in Europe next season, needing to make up what is currently a six point gap. Chelsea’s inability to capitalise in the way they were at the start of the season has been the biggest factor in their late season fall off. Chelsea had 34 shots on goal and 74% possession against 18th placed Ipswich, but could only turn it into 2 goals, and they’ve only scored 3 goals across their last 4 games.
Chelsea have well and truly had the wood over their rivals over the last twelve years, holding a 9-1-2 record in their last twelve Premier League games against Fulham. Despite Chelsea’s struggles in front of goal in recent times, they’ve got a significantly higher attacking capacity. Fulham ranks 12th for goals this season (47) comparatively to Chelsea who have scored 56 goals (ranked 6th). Chelsea’s work in the front third will be the differentiating factor in this clash.
Chelsea to Win
$2.45 (1 Unit)
Tottenham vs Nottingham Forest
Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, Tuesday 22nd April, 5:00am AEST
After looking like their top four position was sealed, back-to-back losses has Nottingham Forest just three points ahead of sixth place, clinging onto fourth spot. Fortunately for Forest, they take on 15th placed Tottenham who have lost three of their four games, after their 4-2 defeat against Wolves on Matchday 32. Forest have already beaten Tottenham once this season, and will be looking to do the league double against Tottenham for the first time since 1997.
Since the turn of the calendar year Tottenham have a 4-1-8 record in Premier League matches, with Ange Postecoglou facing an uphill battle to keep his job. Spurs have conceded sixth most goals in the Premier League this season (49), with only the bottom five sides in the Premier League having conceded more goals. It’s been a massive drop off from last year where they conceded the sixth fewest amount of goals in the league. Tottenham have only recorded six clean sheets this season, ranked 14th in the Premier League, and haven’t recorded a clean sheet in their last games.
Tottenham are all over the place from a defensive standpoint, and are in a dangerous position of having nothing to lose or nothing to gain from the final games of the season. They can’t be relegated, they can’t push for higher honours, so it looms as a tough time to have faith in the effort Spurs will provide. This is a must win match for Nottingham Forest, so expect a huge performance from Nuno Espírito Santo’s side.
Nottingham Forest to Win
$2.65 (1.5 Units)
