The much-maligned Opening Round has come and gone and now it’s time for Round 1 – a round where all 18 teams are involved. The first match of the round is on Thursday night and will see old rivals Richmond and Carlton do battle at the MCG. It’s expected to be a one-sided affair in favour of the Blues, but we’ve tried our best to find some value as we provide our full betting preview below!
Also, Before You Bet will be providing free previews and betting tips for EVERY game in the 2025 AFL season, so make sure to head over to out our AFL Tips regularly to keep up to date with all of our free content.
Richmond vs Carlton
Location: MCG – Melbourne
Date: Thursday, 13th March
Time: 7:30pm AEDT
Odds: Richmond ($11) vs Carlton ($1.04)
Line: Carlton -49.5
Points: 180.5
Odds and lines provided with thanks to Dabble. Note that odds and lines can fluctuate throughout the week, and are correct at the time of writing.
Match Preview
Richmond and Carlton kick off their 2025 AFL campaigns in what has become a traditional Round 1 clash, with these two old rivals meeting in the opening round for the 11th straight year. The last two encounters have been thrilling, with the 2023 match ending in a draw and the Blues scraping home by five points last year. However, this year’s contest is expected to be far more one-sided, with Carlton entering as heavy favourites, currently listed at -49.5. Richmond, in the midst of a major rebuild, is unlikely to be competitive for long stretches, while the Blues are looking to establish themselves as a genuine premiership contender.
The Tigers are in their second season of a significant list overhaul, with last year’s campaign yielding just two wins following a 10-win season in 2023. Their focus is clearly on development, with a young and inexperienced squad taking shape under coach Adem Yze. Richmond has already named three debutants for the season opener, with number-one draft pick Sam Lalor set to play alongside fellow first-round selections Luke Trainor and Harry Armstrong. Injuries have further compounded their struggles, with key players such as Dion Prestia, Josh Gibcus, Hugo Ralphsmith, Josh Smillie, Tylar Young, and Mykelti Lefau all unavailable. Adding to their woes, Noah Balta will miss due to suspension. With so many key players out, Richmond’s depth will be tested, and their ability to withstand Carlton’s experienced midfield and forward-line pressure will be a major concern.
Carlton, on the other hand, enters this season with high expectations. After finishing eighth with 13 wins last year, they were eliminated in the first week of finals by the eventual premiers, Brisbane. Now, they are aiming to go much deeper into September, boasting a squad capable of contending. The Blues have named one debutant for this match, with Lucas Camporeale, son of former Carlton star Scott Camporeale, set to line up on the wing after an impressive pre-season. There are some notable absentees, including key forward Charlie Curnow, who is expected to return in Round 2. Defender Nic Newman is out indefinitely with a knee injury, ruckman Marc Pittonet will miss over a month with a calf issue, and Elijah Hollands is unavailable for personal reasons. However, the Blues received a boost with Sam Walsh passing a fitness test and being cleared to play.
Statistically, the numbers paint a bleak picture for Richmond. The Tigers ranked among the bottom two teams in most key metrics last season, struggling to win contested possessions, clearances, and inside 50s. Their biggest concern was in contested possession differential, where they finished second-last in the league—an area that Carlton thrives in. The Blues, led by reigning Brownlow Medallist Patrick Cripps, ranked second in contested possession differential, and if they dominate this aspect again, Richmond will struggle to get their hands on the ball. With Carlton’s strong midfield and ability to transition quickly into attack, it could be a long night for the Tigers if they fail to match the Blues' intensity at the contest.
In terms of a match prediction, Richmond’s youthful enthusiasm could see them stay competitive in the early stages. The energy of a Round 1 clash may allow them to hang in for a half, but as fatigue sets in and their inexperienced players tire, Carlton’s seasoned bodies should take control. Expect the Blues to break the game open after half-time, using their superior fitness and class to pile on goals in the latter stages. With that in mind, backing Carlton to cover the second-half points line of -25.5 seems like a strong betting play. The Tigers may show flashes of promise as they build for the future, but this contest looks set to highlight the gap between a developing team and a side ready to challenge for the top four.
Carlton 2nd Half Line -25.5
$1.89 (2 Units)
Same Game Multi
Throughout the 2025 AFL season we’ll be putting together a fun same game multi for every match at BoomBet using their BetShare feature.
To follow our multi, just click on the BoomBet BetShare button below and our same game multi selections will be added straight into your bet slip on BoomBet. You can then enter how much you wish to wager, and with a single click, your bet has been placed!
Jayden Short 25+ Disposals – The ball will likely be living in the Tigers back half for the game’s entirety and that bodes well for Jayden Short’s disposal numbers. He’s also their designated kick-in taker, so he should be able to rack up the numbers.
Ollie Hollands 15+ Disposals – With a new role across half back, there should be plenty of cheapies for Hollands this season. He had 20+ disposals in this role in three straight games to finish the 2024 regular season, and we just need 15 from him on Thursday night.
Jesse Motlop 2+ Goals – With both Durdin and Fantasia on the sidelines, Motlop will get his chance to prove himself in the Blues’ first game of the season. He had an injury-interrupted 2024, but has had a good preseason and should get plenty of chances in front of goal here.
SGM Odds: $4.00 at BoomBet
