Just four teams remain, with two teams headed to the Big Easy for Super Bowl LIX with a win this weekend, whilst the two losers will be forced to lick their wounds in Cancun. Three teams that were expected to vie for the Super Bowl have made it through, with the Chiefs, Bills, and Eagles all expected to be there or there abouts at the pointy end of the season. Then, there’s the Commanders, who with a rookie QB and new Head Coach, are the true Cinderella story this season. Can’t wait for these games!
Below, we will dissect the matchups, previewing how we think things will play out, and give out our Best Bet, and Prop Bets for each and every game this weekend. Make sure you are following Before You Bet, as we will have dedicated Match Previews for every playoff game, right up to and including Super Bowl LIX on Monday 10th of February.
NFL 2024-25: Conference Championships Betting Tips
Philadelphia Eagles vs Washington Commanders
Lincoln Financial Field, Monday 27th January, 7:00am (AEDT)
Incredibly, this will be the third meeting this season between the Eagles and Commanders. The two NFC East teams have both managed to get to the Championship game, and with their regular season fixtures ending one-apiece, this should be anyone’s game on Monday morning.
The combatants first met in week 11 at the Linc, with the Eagles going off as 4.5-point home favourites on Thursday Night Football. The Commanders held their own through three quarters, leading 10-6, however it was all Eagles in the fourth, crossing for three consecutive touchdowns on their way to a 26-18 victory. The total closed 49.5 and was always going under.
In the second meeting in week 16, the Eagles closed 4-point road favourites, and launched out of the gates to continue their momentum against the Commanders, leading 21-7 after one quarter, and this after quarterback Jalen Hurts went down early with a concussion. The Eagles led 33-28 with just two minutes remaining, but it wasn’t enough, as Jayden Daniels marched the Commanders down the field for the go-ahead score, winning 36-33. The total closed 47, and obviously flew over.
Moving forward to this clash, and the Eagles were listed as 6.5-point favourites on the hypothetical look ahead lines. Afte the Commanders upset the Lions last week, the books decided to open the Eagles just 4.5-point favourites, and there was immediate disagreement, as the Eagles got bet to -5, -5.5, and now to -6. This is smack bang on my number of Eagles -6, and so I fully agree with the move from open.
Looking at the total, it went from 47.5 on the lookahead, up to 48 at re-open, then back to 47.5 at the time of writing. I make a fair total 45 and do heavily lean towards the under in this one. I expect the Eagles defence to show up in this game, and for the offense to lean heavily on the run. It’s one I will look to bet in game, with an Eagles early lead lending itself towards the under. However, if the Commanders can get out to a quick start, I will look to back an over.
Saquon Barkley’s rushing yard prop in this game is an insane 129.5, and it’s impossible to bet an under. Barkley has shredded this defence twice, and unless they are chasing, he should do it again this week. Overs for Barkley.
Prop Bet
S Barkley (130+) rushing yards - $1.94 at Ladbrokes (1.5u)
Under 47.5 total points
$1.92 (1.5 Units)
Kansas City Chiefs vs Buffalo Bills
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, Monday 27th January, 10:30am (AEDT)
This will be the fourth post season matchup between these two elite teams in the past five seasons, in what is surely the biggest non-divisional rivalry in the NFL right now. In the three previous games, Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs have managed to go 3-0, and many are wondering if Josh Allen will ever slay the Dragon. Could this be his year? This should be absolute fireworks!
These teams last met back in week 11 of the 2024 regular season, with the Bills closing 2.5-point home favourites against the Chiefs. The Bills dominated the matchup, running out 30-21 winners over the Chiefs in a game that ended the Chiefs chances of going through the season undefeated. Josh Allen was great, throwing for 262 yards and a touchdown, whilst also rushing for 55 yards and another score. It was the Bills defence though which really stood up, luring Mahomes into throwing two picks, which drastically altered the prospects of both teams. The total closed 47 and went over due to the 21 points scored in the fourth.
Fast forwarding to this weekend’s AFC Championship game, and the Chiefs were 1.5-point home favourites on the lookahead lines, before re-opening as just 1-point favourites. It appears as though people are starting to learn from years past, as Chiefs’ money has pushed them out to 1.5-point favourites. There’s no way this ever gets to 3, however Chiefs closing as 2.5-point favourites is something I can see happening. I actually have the Bills as a slight 1-point favourite, but there’s no way I’m betting against the Chiefs in the playoffs.
Looking at the total, it was 48.5 on the lookahead, and opened at the same number. It has been bet down slightly to 47.5, and despite my fair total for this being 45.5, I like the over here. These two teams play track meets in the playoffs, and I would be surprised if the same doesn’t happen here. The Bills offense is good enough to score 30 on the Chiefs, and I believe they can get to 24 at least here. The Chiefs will have to match them, and I won’t discount Mahomes in the playoffs until I see him fail. Over is the play here.
There’s plenty of great prop betting options in this game, especially given the fact I see points being scored here. But I’ve learnt my lesson from last week, and that is that Travis Kelce still has it in the playoffs. His receiving yard total is higher than last week, but still too low, and I’ll take Kelce to go over and will look at some ladders too.
Prop Bet
Travis Kelce (70+) receiving yards - $1.95 at Dabble (1.5u)
Under 47.5 points
$1.90 (1.5 Units)
