The first big shift of the English Premier League season took place on Matchday 11 as Man City’s second straight loss saw Liverpool move five points clear at the top of the table. With only one point separating third from ninth on the table, there are plenty of crucial clashes this weekend. Jack Tobin brings you his three best bets for Matchday 12 of the EPL below!
EPL 2024-25: Matchday 12 Preview & Betting Tips
Arsenal vs Nottingham Forest
Emirates Stadium, Sunday 24th November, 2:00am AEDT
Emirates Stadium plays host to a crucial clash between fourth placed Arsenal and fifth placed Nottingham Forest. One point separates third placed Chelsea from eighth placed Aston Villa, so this clash will shape this section of the table. Four games without a win has Arsenal’s title hopes hanging by a thread, with the Gunners now nine points behind Liverpool. The Gunners have had two draws and two losses in their last four Premier League games after their 1-1 draw against Chelsea, where Arsenal failed to hold on to a 1-0 lead.
Nottingham Forest’s three game winning streak came to an end at the hands of Newcastle, with the 3-1 defeat seeing Forest drop from third place to fifth. Nottingham Forest’s meteoric rise this season has been built on the back of a remarkable defence that is currently ranked second in the league. Nuno Espírito Santo’s side have conceded only 11 goals, with Liverpool the only side in the Premier League that have conceded fewer goals.
Seven of both Arsenal and Nottingham Forest’s eleven league games this season have seen the total goals go under 2.5, and given both clubs have a top four ranked defence, it’s tough to see this being a free-flowing encounter. The Gunners have more talent on paper, but Forest are playing some incredibly disciplined football, which is going to make life tough for Mikel Arteta’s side.
Under 2.5 Total Goals
$2.05 (1.5 Units)
Manchester City vs Tottenham
Etihad Stadium, Sunday 24th November, 4:30am AEDT
Sunday morning’s clash at home against Tottenham presents as a season defining clash for the defending champions, who lost back-to-back league games for only the second time in the last six years. The 2-1 defeat against Brighton sees Manchester City now 5 points behind a red-hot Liverpool side, who are showing no signs of slowing down. Pep Guardiola’s side cannot afford to drop points when they take on Ange Postecoglou’s side.
Tottenham continued their alternating win/loss streak that has been going since Matchday 6, after being the first team this season to lose to newly promoted Ipswich Town. Spurs had 17 shots to Ipswich’s 8, as well as 67% possession, but couldn’t make the most of their opportunities which sees them in 10th place on the table. It’s been a horrible season for a side expecting to make top four, with their inconsistency being difficult to explain. Tottenham have scored the most goals of any team in the league (23) and are ranked 6th for defence (13 goals conceded), but have a 5-1-5 record. Ange Postecoglou can never be sure about what he’s going to get from his players week in, week out.
Manchester City have had some struggles against Tottenham in previous seasons, but that record is starting to turn with a 2-1-1 advantage for City over the last four meetings in the Premier League. The defending champions had a comfortable 2-0 win when the teams last met in May, and given what’s at stake for City, expect Pep Guardiola’s side to come out all guns blazing on Sunday morning.
Manchester City -1
$2.15 (1 Unit)
Southampton vs Liverpool
St Mary’s Stadium, Monday 25th November, 1:00am AEDT
Things keep getting better for Liverpool, who are off to a dream start under Arne Slot. Six wins from their last seven games, as well as some handy results, have the Reds five points clear of second place. Liverpool will be looking for a third straight win when they travel south to take on bottom of the league Southampton. The Saints have a 1-1-9 record this season, with a league worst goal difference of -14, having conceded 21 goals and scoring only seven goals, the fewest in the league.
Liverpool on the other hand aren’t putting a foot wrong, with the number ranked defence in the league (6 goals conceded) and the fourth best attack (21 goals scored). The Reds have been led by their maestro Mo Salah, who has arguably been the best player in the league this season. Salah is currently second in the Golden Boot race with 8 goals, and also sits second in the league for assists with 6. He has contributed to two thirds of Liverpool’s goals this season.
As expected, this has been a lopsided matchup in favour of Liverpool over the past seven years. Since November 2017, Liverpool have won 10, drawn 1 and lost 1 in 12 Premier League fixtures against Southampton. The last five wins have come by score lines of 3-1, 2-1, 4-0, 2-0 and 4-0, with Mo Salah registering seven goals and four assists in 11 Premier League meetings against the Saints. It’s difficult to see Southampton keeping things close, and this game could get out of hand quickly, expect the Reds to continue their dominant run.
Liverpool -1
$1.75 (2 Units)
