The busy part of the 2024 AFLW schedule is about to begin! Round 4 gets underway on Tuesday night with games on every day until Sunday. We had a tough run last round after a scorching hot opening fortnight, so hopefully we bounce straight back in Round 4. It’s certainly a hectic time in the W, but we’re here to bring you our best bets for each and every game.
Also, make sure to head over to our AFL Tips page regularly for our best bets for every AFLW round, as well as all AFL finals!
AFLW Round 4 Betting Tips
Collingwood vs West Coast
Tuesday 7:15pm AEST, IKON Park
The Magpies came out of the blocks with intent against the Lions and had the opening three shots on goal, but the reigning premiers quickly arrested momentum and went onto dominate the match from thereon. The Magpies are now 0-3 and a loss on Tuesday would almost certainly rule them out of finals. Making matters worse, star midfielder Brit Bonnici has been ruled out of their upcoming match with injury.
The Eagles responded from their disappointing Round 2 loss with an 11-point win over the Bulldogs. They’ve now already matched their best ever win tally for a season with two wins on the board. Ella Roberts was the standout player again for the Eagles last weekend and dominated whether she played up forward or through the middle. A big game from her will be key once again on Tuesday.
It's a tight betting match with both teams around even money in the H2H market. However, the Bonnici out does have me leaning slightly more towards the Eagles. Regardless, I think the best bet here is to take the unders in the total points market, as both teams lack scoring power, and their best lines are arguably their defence.
Under 76.5 Points
$1.89 (2 Units)
Brisbane vs Western Bulldogs
Wednesday 7:15pm AEST, Brighton Homes Arena
This matchup has the potential to be the most one-sided of the 2024 season. The Lions are the reigning premiers and have been super impressive over the past fortnight, whereas the Bulldogs have kicked just four goals for the season after three matches.
Tipping the scales even further is the injury to Bulldogs captain and best player, Ellie Blackburn. She’s been ruled out for the season with a foot injury which is just horrible news for the club. Another key cog in Elisabeth Georgostathis will also sit out on Wednesday night, which will hurt their rebound out of D50.
In contrast, the Lions are super healthy and are playing great footy, and that’s exactly why they’re the $1.01 favourites. They’ll simply obliterate this Dogs outfit. The line is also a whopping 54.5 and while they certainly have the capacity to blow past that, it’s still a big line to back.
I think this is more of a match to try and find some value in the Lions goalkickers, and Courtney Hodder’s price at Bet365 is very juicy. She’ll get her chances in front of the big sticks and is worth a crack at 1+, 2+, and even 3+.
Also Backing: Hodder 2+ $4.75 (0.5 Units), Hodder 3+ $17 (0.2 Units)
Hodder Anytime Goalkicker
$1.80 (1.5 Units)
Richmond vs Carlton
Thursday 7:15pm AEST, IKON Park
The Tigers enter Round 4 on a two-match win streak and should really be 3-0 this season had they not given away a last-minute goal in Round 1. They pummelled the Swans on enemy territory last weekend and are building their form very nicely. Importantly, the Tigers are now almost fully healthy after Eilish Sheerin made her return last weekend.
The Blues were impressive in tough conditions against the Cats last weekend, as they were able to control territory and lock the half in their front half. They kept the dangerous Cats to just five points in what was easily the Blues’ best game of the season to date. Maddy Guerin has put together a couple of fantastic performances over the past fortnight after overcoming some serious injuries in recent years.
I still feel as though the Tigers are the better outfit in this matchup despite how impressive the Blues were last weekend. With Sheerin now predominantly playing as a midfielder, the Tigers are extremely damaging in that part of the ground. I expect the Tigers to have the ascendancy in the middle of the park and to get the better of the chances up forward, it’s just a matter of how well they can convert. I like them to cover the one-goal spread on Thursday night.
Richmond -5.5
$1.87 (2 Units)
North Melbourne vs Port Adelaide
Friday 5:05pm AEST, Mission Whitten Oval
The Kangaroos flexed their muscle with a demolition job of the Demons last weekend, defeating them by 50 points to remain undefeated in 2024. Their midfield stars ran riot once again, led by Ash Riddell who finished with 32 disposals, 10 tackles, and two goals. Kate Shierlaw also dominated up forward to finish with a bag of five.
The Power led for 95% of their match against the Dockers last weekend but were overrun late in the fourth quarter. There was a big breeze going against them in the last term and they simply couldn’t get any territory whatsoever. Still, it’s been a promising start to the season for one of the freshest clubs in the competition.
The Kangaroos are probably the best team in it this year so it’s no surprise to see them extremely short priced favourites here. However, the Power are no pushovers in 2024 and I like them to keep it a bit closer than the current line suggests.
Port Adelaide +35.5
$1.88 (1 Unit)
Gold Coast vs Geelong
Saturday 12:05pm AEST, People First Stadium
This is an intriguing contest to get proceedings underway on a big Saturday for Aussie Rules fans. Both the Suns and the Cats are winless through three rounds which no one would’ve predicted. Both clubs played finals footy last season and were expected to experience further improvement in 2024.
The Suns were lucky to come away with a share of the points against the injury-depleted Giants last weekend – relying on a kick after the siren from long range to level the scores. On the flip side, the Cats were horrible against the Blues after a couple of decent efforts against top quality opponents in the first two rounds.
This is a very tough match to get a read on and one I won’t be investing much into. However, the Cats will be without their best player in Georgie Prespakis again on Saturday and they were soundly beaten in the middle of the ground without her last weekend. This should result in the Suns getting control of the territory game and potentially causing a mini upset.
Gold Coast +11.5
$1.91 (0.5 Units)
St Kilda vs Hawthorn
Saturday 2:05pm AEST, RSEA Park
The Saints have enjoyed their best start to an AFLW season with three wins from as many games to sit atop the ladder. Even more impressive is the fact that all three teams they’ve defeated played finals last season, whereas the Saints narrowly missed out when finishing ninth.
Meanwhile, the Hawks are only one win away from equalling their win tally of three from a season ago. They began 2024 by smashing the Blues and the Magpies before coming back to earth a touch last weekend when soundly beaten by the powerhouse Crows.
Both teams have been in great form to start the season which makes this a tricky match to predict. However, I think the Saints are just a touch further along in their development and I have a bit more faith in their defensive structure holding up in what should be a fierce contest. With that said, it’ll only be a small play on the Saints line for me.
St Kilda -4.5
$1.91 (0.5 Units)
Fremantle vs Melbourne
Saturday 2:05pm AEST, Fremantle Oval
The Dockers, despite being injury depleted in the midfield this season, have begun their campaign in promising fashion. They destroyed the Bombers as the underdogs in Round 1 and overran the improved Power last weekend. Those impressive wins sandwich a comprehensive loss against the Crows in week two.
In contrast, the Demons look to have regressed a decent amount in 2024. They were lucky to come away with a win against the currently winless Cats in Round 1 and have been soundly beaten in their two matches since, including a massive 50-point blowout against the Kangaroos last start.
Again, this is another tricky Saturday afternoon match to predict. The Demons have been the better side in recent seasons but I have the Dockers slightly ahead of them on current form. Add home ground advantage on top of that, and the Dockers become a solid bet.
Fremantle to Win
$1.75 (1 Unit)
Adelaide vs Essendon
Sunday 1:05pm AEST, Thomas Farms Oval
The Crows remain unblemished in their 2024 season with a perfect 3-0 record heading into Sunday’s clash. They’ve been comfortable winners in all three games and have knocked over a couple of quality teams to date. They’ve done nothing to cause doubt about their premiership prospects.
Elsewhere, the Bombers continue to be without their best player and captain in Bonnie Toogood and come into this round with only one win to their name, which came against an Eagles side that isn’t expected to play finals this season.
The Crows are the very short favourites in this matchup for a reason and anything but a comfortable win would be a big surprise. They have the edge all over the ground, especially in the midfield, and I expect this to be all one way traffic as a result.
Adelaide -26.5
$1.90 (1.5 Units)
Collingwood vs Western Bulldogs
Sunday 3:05pm AEST, Victoria Park
The bottom two clubs on the ladder come together in one of the 3pm (AEST) fixtures on Sunday as the Magpies play host to the Bulldogs. The Bulldogs were the wooden spoon favourites coming into the season, so their current form isn’t a surprise although the Magpies were expected to be a bit better than this.
The Pies will be without their two prime movers in the middle with Britt Bonnici and Bri Davey both unavailable due to injury, while the Dogs will be without their best player and captain in Ellie Blackburn.
Despite their outs, this is a fantastic opportunity for the Pies to get a win on the board in what is and will be a tricky 2024 season. I think they’re very good value to cover the small line here.
Collingwood -6.5
$1.91 (2.5 Units)
Sydney vs GWS
Sunday 3:05pm AEST, Henson Park
The Swans were extremely impressive last season when they made the finals after a winless year in 2022, although they’ve come crashing back to earth in 2024 due to a number of reasons. They did win their opening game against the Magpies, but injuries to Chloe Molloy and Ally Morphett have brought about their demise in their past two games.
On the other hand, the Giants are a young and improving list and were desperately unlucky not to come away with all four points against the Suns last weekend. A goal after the siren from the Suns saw them split the points, but their performance had plenty of merit considering the injuries they suffered.
The Swans are currently listed as the favourites here but I think that’s only due to their superior 2023 season. With current injuries and 2024 form taken into consideration, I like the Giants to cause a mini upset.
Giants to Win
$2.40 (1 Unit)
West Coast vs Brisbane
Sunday 5:05pm AEST, Mineral Resources Park
West Coast have been super competitive this season and have already achieved their best ever win tally in a season with three. They were too good for the injury depleted Magpies last outing when winning by 17 points to win back-to-back road games for the first time in their history.
On the other hand, the Lions entered this season as the reigning premiers and despite a poor showing first up against North, they look to be one of the best teams in the competition yet again. The Lions were without star forward Dakota Davidson due to illness last outing, and she’ll be sidelined again on Sunday.
The Lions are the clear favourites and rightly so, however the current line seems about right to me. Instead, I’m keen to be on the unders in this clash as the eagles have held up really well defensively so far this year, and it would take a serious total from the Lions to see this push the overs.
Under 82.5 Points
$1.90 (1 Unit)
