The race that stops a nation is the Melbourne Cup (3200m) at Flemington and the 2024 edition shapes up to be an intriguing contest with a host of local horses lining up to keep the Cup down under, away from the overseas invasion, which looks as though it will be strong.
Adam Page previews the key chances and horses to potentially back, as well as horses to avoid in the all-in market, odds courtesy of BoomBet.
Melbourne Cup 2024 - Early Market Watch
Melbourne Cup Favourites
Circle Of Fire ($10): Ciaron Maher trained winner of the Sydney Cup earlier in the year, with that victory being quite incredible given he was three wide no cover for the trip. He is nominated for all three big races but given his win over the two miles, the Melbourne Cup looks his targeted race. He resumes in the Makybe Diva Stakes (1600m) and will gradually step up in trip with eyes towards the first Tuesday in November. Hard to beat should he run up to what he was doing in the Autumn.
Vauban ($10): Overall history says if you fail in the Melbourne Cup, you can't successfully return for another crack. But, recent history has sort of flipped that, namely the winner of the race last year Without A Fight, who was poor in the 2022 edition. Vauban was the talk of the town leading into the race last year but failed to deliver. He'll return for redemption and will return in better form with strong efforts in key races overseas.
Grosvenor Square ($11): You'll know for sure one way or the other if he comes after this weekend given he contests the St Leger at Doncaster in the UK. His last start win in the Irish St Leger Trial was incredible, leading throughout and going on to win by 20 lengths. The query will be whether he can back that up, or even improve, because I dare say he will need to improve in order to measure up in both the St Leger and indeed the Melbourne Cup. But, he has the Aidan O'Brien polish and the stable in 2024 is low flying around the world.
Melbourne Cup Local Horses
Without A Fight ($19): 2023 Melbourne Cup winner and from all reports, if he is to race in his third Cup in a row, it will be first up, something we haven't seen ever from memory, resuming in a Melbourne Cup after contesting the previous edition. He has had his injury troubles since the win last year but there is no denying he is a high class animal, a proven weight carrier and the stable won't push the issue with him if he's not ready. If he runs, he has to be respected.
Land Legend ($21): He is the unknown. Stunning win in the St Leger at Randwick and was tipped out with eyes towards this Spring. He didn't do a great deal first up, but that was over 1500m and he is a horse clearly best suited at 2400m+ hence why he is being cuddled in betting despite the first up run. He's in the right hands of Chris Waller and his trials prior to the resumption indicated he was in for a big Spring.
The Map ($21): If you are watching free to air for Cup Week, expect to see a lot of content regarding this mare. The cheap purchase from South Australia who won her way into the Cup via a golden ticket win in the Andrew Rasmden and was a dominant winner on Cup Day last year in the 2800m race. Given she is secured a start, connections can plot whatever path they like and she is a mare who will run well given she stays and has change up speed, plus will be down in the weights.
Melbourne Cup Overseas Horses
Absurde ($17): Stablemate of Vauban who did run well in the Cup last year in defeat and looks to be ticking along nicely towards another crack. His overall form though, potentially, looks suspect, and I am not sure what to make of his win at Chester given he had the A1 run in transit and was just too good for an average bunch. But, he has the Willie Mullins polish and the stable is desperate to win the race.
Magical Zoe ($17): Connections were already planning coming to Australia for the Melbourne Cup and now they come with a live chance. The Ebor hasn't been the strongest form reference for the Cup in years but her win was quite dominant at York and she is a mare who will stay. She's a very good jumper but recently has reverted to flat racing and has been quite effective. Has to be respected.
Melbourne Cup Horses To Avoid
Saint George ($14): He's shot up in the market due to being unlucky first up in the Heatherlie at Caulfield. But, a great rule for betting and reviewing races is beware the unlucky runner in a poor race. It's a poor race given it was a blanket finish, the overall time was ordinary and he wasn't the only unlucky runner in the race. His overseas form is solid enough but he's going to need to improve big time and IMO is way too short in betting.
Middle Earth ($17): He's got none as far as I am concerned. Gelded since his last start flop but his overall form from the UK just looks terrible, plus he has to be a big query at two miles. Yes, Ciaron Maher will get a hold of him and I have no doubt he is capable of transforming this horse, but in terms of his form and what I've seen to date, he should be much longer in betting.
