Week 1 in the AFL Finals boasts a monster four game slate across three days, and arguably one of the most interesting of the games sees the Lions hosting the Blues in Brisbane on Saturday night. The Blues scraped into the AFL Finals by the skin of their teeth, while the Lions will still harbour premiership aspirations from 5th place on the ladder.
Check out our Brisbane vs Carlton preview and betting tips below!
Also, Before You Bet will be providing free previews and betting tips for EVERY game in the 2024 AFL Finals, so make sure to head over to out our AFL Tips regularly to keep up to date with all of our free content.
2024 AFL Elimination Final Preview & Betting Tips
Brisbane vs Carlton
Gabba, Saturday 7th September, 7.30pm (AEST)
Weather: Clear 20 degrees
Odds: Brisbane ($1.28) vs Carlton ($3.60)
Line: Brisbane -22.5
Points: 165.5
Carlton survived a final week loss to the Saints to stumble into the finals in eighth place, needing multiple games to go their way throughout the final round to secure their place. On the bright side, they could get as many as eight players back from injury ahead of the AFL Finals, with Harry McKay, Charlie Curnow, Mitch McGovern, Sam Docherty and Adam Cerra among the key names set to return.
Injury played a big part certainly, but there is no doubt that Carlton fans would be wary of their form coming into the finals series. The Blues lost six of their last eight games of the season, with those only two wins coming against the Kangaroos and Eagles. They did look a little more impressive in their Round 24 loss to the Saints when their backs were against the wall, as they will be on Saturday night.
After a slow start to the season, the Lions peeled off nine straight wins from Round 13 onwards, and looked like they were charging into the top four. However, stumbles against GWS and Collinwgood in their final three games saw them relinquish a second chance in the finals, instead settling for 5th place and a home final against the Blues.
They were good enough to get the job done in the final game of the season, at home, against the Bombers, winning by 20 points on the back of a dominant game from Lachie Neale. The two time Brownlow Medalist had a stellar finish to the year and could be a smokey to win a third medal in a few weeks time.
Of the eight remaining teams, the Lions are arguably the most settled on the injury front, having a near full strength line-up to pick from outside of a few notable players who have been ruled out for the season for some time with knee injuries in Coleman, Doedee and McCarthy.
Match Prediction
The Blues booted the first five goals of the game in their preliminary final in Brisbane last year and had the game right there for the taking. Unbelievably, they allowed the Lions to kick nine of the next 10 goals to hand Brisbane a 16 point win and a spot in the Grand Final.
For the sake of the competition and the electricity of future finals games this year, I’m hoping history doesn’t repeat itself and the Blues can get the monkey off the back, however, I just don’t see it happening with the form they bring into this game and with so many players likely to be underdone.
The Lions have won seven of their last eight games at the Gabba and have won 11 of their last 14 against the Blues. I think the Lions get the job done here but I do think that 22.5 point line is a touch high. Six of the past seven games between these two teams have had a margin of 20 points or less, and all but one game throughout the 2023 Finals series was decided by 24 points or less.
Carlton +22.5
$1.90 (1.5 Units)
Same Game Multi
Lachie Neale & Patrick Cripps 25+ Disposals Each - In the big finals, the stars step up, and there has been arguably no better midfielders this season than Cripps and Neale. Cripps has had 25+ in 10 straight games while Neale has been one of the better accumulators in the league this season, averaging 29.6 touches.
Kai Lohmann Anytime Goalscorer - Lincoln McCarthy was a key target in the Lions prelim win over the Blues last season but filling his void since a season ending injury has been Kai Lohmann. The youngster has kicked 27 goals in 23 games this year, including five in his last two outings.
SGM Odds: $2.80 at BoomBet
