The penultimate weekend of rugby league begins in Townsville this week with two teams destined to play in the NRL Finals. The Cowboys sit in 6th and should be fresh after having the Bye last week. The Storm clinched the Minor Premiership with a commanding victory over the Dolphins and may take the opportunity to rest some of their stars ahead of the Finals. Such a contest could make it challenging for punters but don’t worry, Before You Bet is here with a detailed preview of the Round 26 match ahead.
And don't forget to head to our NRL tips page for previews of all of the NRL and NRLW matches this weekend!
NRL Round 26 Preview & Betting Tips
North Queensland Cowboys vs Melbourne Storm
Queensland Country Bank Stadium – Thursday 29th August – 7:50pm (AEST)
The Cowboys had a week off last week to enjoy their commanding 42-4 victory over the Raiders at home. In arguably their best performance of the season, they scored early and controlled every area of the match. This was highlighted by their 24-4 HT lead in which they went on with in the second half. In the end they had 53% possession, completed at 82%, averaged 10.3m per carry, made 744 PCM’s and created 9 line breaks. If this is their new standard, they are beginning to peak at the right time.
The Storm captured the Minor Premiership with their 48-6 dismantling of the Dolphins at home. Working hard in the first 20 minutes, the Storm set a strong platform. Once they crossed for their first try, they were unstoppable in their 9-try performance. The game was all but over at HT as they lead 22-nil and they picked up where they left off in the second half. In the end, they had a 61% share of possession, completed at 82%, averaged 9.9m per carry, made 820 PCM’s and had 14 line breaks. They were strong in defence missing just 19 tackles. Such an effort will worry others moving forward and they have given themselves the luxury now of resting players ahead of the Finals.
Verdict
This game has been impacted by the decision of Coach Bellamy to rest 11 players from his regular team. While Papenhuyzen, Munster, Faalogo and Wishart remain, this decision has seen them posted as outsiders ($1.24 vs $4.10). The Cowboys are close to full-strength and will want to win this game to become a step closer to clinching a home match in the first week of the Finals. With so many key players missing, it is hard to find value in this match. It is a case of perhaps keeping your stake lower compared to other, more enticing matches that Before You Bet will cover this weekend.
To make a stronger case for the Cowboys, the home side has won 4 out of the past 5 matches between these two sides; the Storm struggle here with just a 33% win rate (vs Cowboys 53%). Interestingly, the Cowboys have won the past two games (also at home) by 25 and 30-point margins, blowing out the average margin of victory in their past 5 meetings to 16.6 points.
Beware of the incoming players for the Storm; while down on quality, they are a club which prides themselves on the ‘next man up’ mentality. This is the type of game that, should their opponents take them lightly, they could cause plenty of trouble over 80 minutes. Improvement in the Cowboys in recent weeks indicates that they should be able to cope with this, but they have also displayed confusing performances this season. Therefore, take a line which is lower and use this to anchor a multi bet. It means that should the Storm come out to prove a point, the line (13.5) might work in their favour.
Cowboys -7.5
$1.90 (2 units)
Same Game Multi
The average total points in the past 5 matches is 47.8 points. This is somewhat skewed by their 65-point total in their last meeting. Feldt (18) and Nanai (12 – equal with Holmes) are the leading try scorers for the Cowboys. Both have a strong ability to produce tries in the ground and in the air. Their opportunities (and execution) should be no different this week.
- Total Points Under 52.5
- Feldt and Nanai to score
SGM Odds: $8.00 at Ladbrokes (0.5 Units)
