We’re getting to the pointy end of the season in the NRL, where plenty of games are starting to take on far more significance. One of those games will take place in our Nation’s Capital this Saturday afternoon, as the 7th placed Sea Eagles head to Canberra to take on the 10th placed Raiders. With a home loss to the Raiders possibly ending their season, and a loss to Manly scuppering any chance at a top 4 finish, this game is huge for both sides. Make sure to catch our full preview and best bets below!
2024 NRL Round 23 Preview & Betting Tips
Canberra Raiders vs Manly Sea Eagles
GIO Stadium, Saturday 10th August, 3:00pm (AEST)
Last Week
The Raiders had a tough loss last weekend, going down 22-18 to the Bulldogs at Belmore. But the Raiders showed plenty of grit and determination, taking one of the most improved teams this season down to the wire in the hostile environment of Belmore Oval. The Raiders’ forwards in particular were tremendous against the Dogs, with Joe Tapine (158 metres), Josh Papalii (131 metres), Hudson Young (130 metres), and Morgan Smithies (116 metres) all rolling the sleeves up for their side. If they can manage a similar output this weekend against a strong Sea Eagles middle, the Raiders will have their chance again to win.
Speaking of the Sea Eagles, they are coming off the bye in round 22, a bye that came at a good time for the Manly side, with several players nursing some niggling injuries. The week prior, the Sea Eagles showed great resolve against a hot Roosters outfit. After going down 28-6 after 36 minutes, the Sea Eagles poured on four tries to one over the next 40 minutes to get within a whisker of a massive come-from-behind win, eventually going down 34-30. With Reuben Garrick and Haumole Olakau’atu due back this week, the Sea Eagles are close to full strength heading towards the finals.
Match Preview
The Raiders and Sea Eagles met back in round 9 at 4 Pines Park, with the Raiders sealing a huge comeback victory over the Sea Eagles, winning 26-24 after being down 24-6 after 52 minutes. It was a poor home loss for the Sea Eagles, in a game they well and truly should have won as a 13.5-point favourite at home and leading by 18 points. The total closed 42.5, and always looked like going over.
Prior to last weekend’s matches playing out, the Sea Eagles opened 2.5-point road favourites, before re-opening at the same price on Monday. The Sea Eagles have taken on money through the week, pushing them out past the key number of 4 to where they currently sit as a 4.5-point road favourite. I make the Sea Eagles 6-point road favourites, so I still see slight value in the roadside, however getting on at 2.5 would obviously have been more desirable.
As for the total, it opened 48.5, and has been bet up slightly to 49.5. The Sea Eagles have been a heavy overs team, and with scoring well up over the second half of the season, I can get to this total, despite making a fair total 47.5. No bet for me here.
So, despite some of the early week value being sucked out of the Sea Eagles to cover, I’ll take them to cover the 4.5 here. There are still some 3.5’s out there, although heavily juiced, if you want to be more conservative.
Sea Eagles -4.5
$1.95 (2 Units)
Same Game Multi
Sea Eagles ML – As above, I expect the Sea Eagles to get the job done here.
T Trbojevic (1+ ty) – Tommy Turbo has 10 tries in 14 games this season, and with a Saturday afternoon clash poised to see plenty of points, expect the Manly fullback to cross the line.
X Savage (1+ try) – Savage has 10 tries this season and will be attacking the weaker left edge defence of the Sea Eagles. Savage is a great shout this weekend.
SGM Odds: $6.00 at Bet365
