Port Adelaide will be looking to push for a place in the top four when they host bottom placed Richmond on Saturday night. Can the Power bounce back? Or will the Tigers cause an upset on the road?
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2024 AFL Round 19 Preview & Betting Tips
Port Adelaide vs Richmond
Saturday 7:30pm AEST, 20th July, Adelaide Oval
Port Adelaide’s inconsistency over the last two months continued on the weekend, falling to the Gold Coast Suns on the road, missing an opportunity to be inside the top four after earlier results went their way. The Power possessed the ball well, recording 66 more disposals than Gold Coast, but they struggled to do much with the ball, losing the inside 50 count by 6.
A good fourth quarter kept the scoreline respectable, however Richmond never really looked like threatening GWS in a 24 point loss. The Giants led by 37 points early in the last quarter, but the Tigers kicked four of the last six goals of the game. There were some positive signs for Richmond, winning the inside 50 count +17, contested possessions +8 and clearances +8.
Despite the positives around the ball, The Tigers defence still remains an issue, conceding scores from 58.3% of the Giants inside 50’s with 47.2% of GWS’s inside 50’s turning into goals.
Richmond are the lowest scoring team in the competition averaging just 64 points per game in 2024. Richmond’s inability to possess the ball and put pressure on has been a major issue in their inability to produce scores. The Power rank third for marks and fifth for kicks, with the Tigers ranking 18th for tackles and 17th for disposals, so look for Port Adelaide to play a high possession brand of football on Saturday.
Another area that the Power will expose Richmond is at clearance, in particular centre clearances. The Tigers rank 18th in the AFL for clearances, while Port Adelaide are the number one team in the competition at scoring from centre bounces and seventh at scoring from stoppages.
Port Adelaide’s scores from stoppages are a massive barometer for Ken Hinkley’s side. From their nine wins this season the Power have scored an average of 40 points from stoppages, in their seven losses that number drops to 27 points per game. When these teams met in Round 2, Port Adelaide scored 42 points from stoppage, which was the ultimate difference in the 30 point win.
Match Prediction: Richmond were very competitive against the Power in Round 2, however this game looms as a much more difficult task given their extraordinary injury list. After winning against the Crows at the Adelaide Oval in Round 13, Richmond have lost four straight games by margins of 48, 61, 51 and 24 points. The Tigers average losing margin this year has been 43.5 points, and since Round 5 their average losing margin has been 52 points.
Expect a big bounce back from the Power, who simply must take advantage of this golden opportunity to not only get back into the eight, but boost their percentage and be knocking on the door of the top four if results go their way.
Port Adelaide -43.5
$1.90 (2.5 Units)
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Zak Butters 30+ Disposals: After a quiet patch between Rounds 11-14, Zak Butters has had an excellent month, recording 33 or more disposals in three of his last four games. Butters has loved playing against Richmond across the last two years, recording 34, 30 and 32 disposals in his last three games against the Tigers.
Connor Rozee 25+ Disposals: Like his running partner Butters, Connor Rozee has had an excellent month of football. Rozee has had games of 28, 25, 36 and 29 disposals in his last four games and has hit the 25+ disposal mark in his last three games against Richmond.
Mitch Georgiades 2+ Goals: Mitch Georgiades has quietly put together an excellent coming back from knee injury. Georgiades last six games have seen returns of 5, 0, 3, 3, 4 and 2 goals. Georgiades has kicked multiple goals in 9 of his 13 games this season, and will give a struggling Richmond defence plenty of trouble.
SGM Odds: $3.20 at BoomBet
