Rugby league fans are given everything they desire in the 2024 State of Origin series with a Game 3 decider. A lot has happened in the two games so far, with both performances sitting at opposite ends of the spectrum. Heading to Brisbane, the Maroons will be out to make amends for their poor showing in Game 2. As good as NSW were, few expected the outcome which occurred in that contest. It gave the Blues plenty of belief and will motivate them ahead of this match. Meanwhile, the Maroons must prove their doubters wrong; this is a comfortable position for them to be in. With the stage set for an exhilarating contest, Before You Bet is here to take a comprehensive look at the game.
2024 NRL State of Origin – Game 3 Preview & Betting Tips
Queensland vs New South Wales
Suncorp Stadium – Wednesday 17th July – 8:05pm (AEST)
Squads
Queensland
1. Reece Walsh 2. Selwyn Cobbo 3. Dane Gagai 4. Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow 5. Valentine Holmes 6. Tom Dearden 7. Daly Cherry-Evans 8. Reuben Cotter 9. Ben Hunt 10. Lindsay Collins 11. Kurt Capewell 12. Jeremiah Nanai 13. Patrick Carrigan Interchange: 14. Harry Grant 15. Moeaki Fotuaika 16. Felise Kaufusi 17. Kalyn Ponga Reserves: 18. Trent Loiero 19. Brendan Piakura 20. Reed Mahoney
New South Wales
1. Dylan Edwards 2. Brian To’o 3. Bradman Best 4. Stephen Crichton 5. Zac Lomax 6. Jarome Luai 7. Mitchell Moses 8. Jake Trbojevic 9. Reece Robson 10. Payne Haas 11. Liam Martin 12. Angus Crichton 13. Cameron Murray Interchange: 14. Connor Watson 15. Isaah Yeo 16. Mitchell Barnett 17. Spencer Leniu Reserves: 18. Matt Burton 19. Haumole Olakau’atu 20. Joseph-Aukuso Sua’ali’i
Match Preview
The series was squared in Melbourne with the Blues dominating the Maroons in a commanding display. The performance had many wondering where the form from the first match had gone for the Maroons. It was a rejuvenated, fierce and brutal Blues team who ambushed their opponents. Leading 34-nil at HT, the game was all but over. There was no need to prove anything in the second half, as the Blues comprehensively won 38-18.
The fightback by the Queenslanders will give them confidence but there is no doubt that the Blues had ‘switched off’ by that point. The difference between the two sides was reflected statistically too; the Blues had an edge in all areas. With a greater share of possession (54%), they completed at 91% (vs QLD 78%), made more total metres and PCM’s, while also having the same amount of line breaks. The telling stat was defensively though, as the Maroons missed 54 tackles compared to the Blues 23.
It has left many questioning the validity of the Queenslander’s performance in Game 1; there were no shortage of opportunities in that match which, albeit with 12 players, the Blues matched their opponents once the necessary adjustments were made. Though, previous history would indicate that only a fool would ‘write off’ the chances of the Maroons, at home, in a Game 3 decider. The Blues have won just 2 of the 13 played and will need a complete performance against to rewrite history.
Match Prediction
There is nothing splitting these two sides ahead of this match. The odds have them even at $1.90 each, with the usual home ground advantage (65% vs 33%) unable to sway punters. The performance of the Blues in Melbourne was almost too good to believe, with most quick to forget the potential of the home side. They still have a host of classy players but will also need to battle omissions and team changes; the usual ‘pick and stick’ mentality has been abandoned with the series on the line. The inclusion of Ponga adds another dimension to their attack; he can produce anything from anywhere on the field and he is a proven performer at this level. The negative of this is that, along with Grant, the Maroons have a ‘light’ bench rotation. They will be relying heavily on longer minutes from their middle players. This could make them vulnerable and less effective at carrying the ball and slowing down the ruck.
Make no mistake, the Blues will set up a ‘power game’ through the middle; the Maroons will have their own game plan to attack their opponents, but it will have to be perfect to overcome what occurred in the most recent performance. Despite the first two matches being decided by 13+ margins (a common trend in the NRL also), this match looks set to be a close contest. Of the past 8 Game 3 deciders (since 2011), 5 have been decided by a 1-12 margin with the average margin being 10.5 points; 6 of the 8 matches were played in Brisbane. Use this to your advantage and invest around this outcome. It is a safer, more suitable option than a Head-to-Head or margin bet (more on that below). For what it’s worth, the Blues have the slight edge when deciding on a winner for this contest.
Either Team by 8.5 Points or Less
$2.15 (2 Units)
Origin Game 3 Prop Bets
First Try Scorer/Try Scorer
Outside backs (players 2-5) have a knack of scoring first in Game 3 matches. Since 2011, they have scored 9 times, with centres have scoring 5 times and wingers 4. Valentine Holmes has scored 4 times (3 as a winger and once as a centre). Another interesting statistic to point out is that Queensland has scored first in all but 2 Game 3 matches since 2011. It is interesting to note that out of the 17 tries scored this series, only 3 have been by forwards (Hunt x2 and Martin).
Queensland
Best Bet = Valentine Holmes ($10 at Picklebet) – Holmes’ stats speak for themselves (see above). He will be out to prove a point also as he is yet to cross the line for a try this series. Given his history, you can be sure that if he is presented with an opportunity, he is likely to take it.
Value = Dane Gagai ($15 at Picklebet) – Not a noted try scorer at club or Origin level (at centre) but he has found form for the Knights recently (5 tries – equal 2nd for the club). He is known for being a far superior player at representative level too. Called in to do a job defensively, his experience may also expose their opponent’s defensive line.
New South Wales
Best Bet = Zac Lomax ($11 at Ladbrokes) – Lomax has scored 3 times in the series and is a fantastic attacking threat on the wing. He has a great ability in the air to end up with the ball and isn’t afraid to take on the opponents close to the line.
Value = Stephen Crichton ($21 at Ladbrokes) – Crichton has been devastating this series for the Blues and will face off against Tabuai-Fidow on the edge again. He did a number on his in Game 2 but what enhances his chances further are that the inside defenders (Dearden and now Capewell) were pressured, forcing him to give up his assignment on the left edge (before going off due to injury).
Man of the Match
This is a market which is always advised to stay away from. Since 2011, a player outside of the spine (1, 6 7 & 9) has only won this award twice, with one of those (Corey Parker – 2014) coming in a dead rubber. This could be the year to break this trend. Despite players in the spine winning the award in the opening two matches, those in the middle have gone underappreciated.
Queensland
Best Bet = Reece Walsh ($8 at Neds) – We are yet to see the best of Walsh during this series. He was criticised in Game 2 of being hesitant; overlooking his talent is a dangerous game to play. If there is an ideal time for him to find form, it is in a big match at a ground he is familiar with playing on.
Value = Patrick Carrigan ($13 at Neds) – Similar to Walsh, Carrigan will feel comfortable on his home turf. If the Maroons are to win, they will need a strong effort from him on both sides of the ball. He has been kept quiet so far this series (and arguably, majority of the season) but a lot of his work also goes unnoticed. A tight contest should bring this to the attention of all.
New South Wales
Best Bet = Dylan Edwards ($10 at Dabble) – Edwards has an uncanny knack of performing well on the big stages. His debut in Game 2 was so effective, that most overlooked that it was his first experience at this level. He is likely to only get better also and will have his fingerprints on numerous areas of the Blues attack and defence.
Value = Angus Crichton ($21 at Dabble) – Narrowly missed out in Game 2, Crichton has been the clear best forward for the Blues in the first two matches. He is an attacking threat with the ball and has been brutal in defence. The same can be expected here again.
Total Points/Margin
The average total points in Game 3 matches since 2011 is 38.1 points. In the first two games of this series, the average total points scored is 52; the winner in both games has scored 38 points. This makes the total points market of 41.5 appear low (currently shortening into $1.85).
Margin wise, only 5 Game 3 fixtures since 2011 have been decided by 13+ points. This doesn’t mean it isn’t possible. The opening two games of the series indicates that it is highly likely, especially considering the new combinations (and possible weaknesses) in those incoming players to each team. Probably one to stay away from.
Total Points – Over 41.5 ($1.85 at Picklebet)
Margin – NSW 1-12 ($3.10 at Picklebet)
Same Game Multi
Based on the selections above: Either Team by 10.5 Points, Total Points Over 45.5, Holmes & A.Crichton to Score ($26 at Ladbrokes) 0.5 units
Good luck!
