A massive clash in the NRL kicks things off on Sunday afternoon, as the Dolphins head to Sydney for just the second time this season to take on the Dragons at Kogarah. With the Dolphins struggling to get back into the top 4, and the Dragons just outside the 8, this game is of the utmost importance to both, and should kick things off in style on Sunday. We bring you our full preview and betting tips for the game below!
Also, if you’re new to sports betting or betting on the NRL, check out the following articles to help build your knowledge:
- Guide to Betting on the NRL
- Where to Bet on the NRL
- Factors to Consider When Betting on the NRL
2024 NRL Round 17 Preview & Betting Tips
St George Illawarra Dragons vs The Dolphins
Netstrata Jubilee Stadium, Sunday 30th June, 2:00pm (AEST)
Last Week
The Dragons are fresh off the bye, with their last up start a rough 30-14 loss to the Sea Eagles at 4 Pines Park in round 15. On the surface, the result looks a little rough for the Dragons, but the result was far worse than the scoreline suggests, as the Sea Eagles were decimated by injuries during the game, and still managed to win convincingly. This was off the back of two impressive victories for the Dragons, who beat the Panthers in round 13, before spanking the Tigers 56-14 in round 14. The Dragons are one of the hardest teams to handicap week to week, and this week is no different.
As for the Dolphins, they lost a tightly contested matchup with the Storm last Friday night, going down 30-24 at Suncorp Stadium. Statistically, the game was incredibly tight, with the Storm proving to be the better team when it mattered most. It continued some solid form for the Dolphins since their bye, after beating the Sharks on the road in round 15. It also marked the 8th straight game the Dolphins have played in where the margin was 1-12 points. They are particularly good at staying in the contest, but not the best at putting teams to the sword.
Match Preview
These teams met back in round 2 at Kayo Stadium, with the Dolphins obliterating the Dragons 38-0 after closing 1.5-point home underdogs. Fullback Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow led the way, scoring three tries on his way to a man of the match performance. The total closed 46.5, and the Dragons didn’t help the Dolphins at all, as the total went well under.
Skipping forward to this week, the Dolphins opened short 0.5-point favourites, before re-opening at the same number on Monday. Not much changed before Origin, when Dolphins’ superstar fullback Tabuai-Fidow injured his AC joint and was later ruled out. The Dragons have now moved to 1.5-point favourites, with the number likely closing north of 2. With my number sitting right around a pick em’, I don’t see any value in the spread, with this game likely to go down to the wire.
As for the total, it opened 48.5, which is bang on my number. The Dolphins are 50/50 when it comes to playing overs and unders, whilst the Dragons have been a heavy unders team this season (64%). With no real numbers advantage here, I won’t be making a play on the total.
So then, a tightly lined game, and a game I believe will be close throughout, leads me towards an either team to win by a small-ish margin bet. The issue with this is the Dragons have the tendency to get blown out if they’re losing, so we will need them to keep this one close. The Dolphins, as mentioned earlier, appear to struggle to put teams to the sword, so we will bet the small margin with just a small outlay.
Either team by less than 10.5 points
$2.00 (1 Unit)
Same Game Multi
Under 53.5 points – If the Dragons come to play, their defence should be good enough to hold this match to under 54 points. Gives the odds a nice boost too.
T Niu (1+ try) – Niu takes over from Bostock this week, and he will be attacking the poor Dragons’ right edge defence. Niu has 3 tries from 5 games this season, and will be playing outside Herbie Farnworth, who is as good a centre as anyone at getting his winger into space.
Z Lomax (1+ try) – No one can stop this guy right now, and if he plays, he will score.
SGM Odds: $11.48 at Neds
