With the Eels season all but over, and the Knights on life support, both teams will come into Saturday night desperate for a result. With the Origin affects being minimal for this contest, both sides should be prepared and ready to go on Saturday evening. Ben Bridge brings you his full preview and tips for the clash.
Also, if you’re new to sports betting or betting on the NRL, check out the following articles to help build your knowledge:
- Guide to Betting on the NRL
- Where to Bet on the NRL
- Factors to Consider When Betting on the NRL
2024 NRL Round 17 Preview & Betting Tips
Newcastle Knights vs Parramatta Eels
McDonald Jones Stadium, Saturday 29th June, 5:30pm (AEST)
Last Week
The Knights are coming into this contest fresh off the bye, with their last start being a 26-18 home loss to the Panthers in round 15. Despite the loss, Newcastle could be proud of their performance, given the fact they only managed 44% of possession against the three-time Premiers. Bradman Best appeared back to his destructive best, whilst rookie fullback Fletcher Sharpe continued his destructive start to his career. Overall, the Knights’ form is on the up, and they should be primed to put on a big performance at home this week against the disappointing Eels.
Speaking of the Eels, they are also coming into this match off the bye, with their last up start being a 28-18 home loss to the Roosters in round 15. The Eels have looked vastly improved since the return of Mitch Moses, but it hasn’t quite translated into results, as they are just 1-2 since his return. Moses put in a man of the match performance in Origin II, in a display that surely had Eels fans wondering where that form has been in clubland. The decision on whether Moses backs up or not will have a huge bearing on where this market closes, with heavy Knights money expected if Moses is ruled out.
Match Preview
These teams haven’t met since round 9 last season, with the Eels smashing the Knights at CommBank Stadium 43-12. The Eels closed 6.5-point favourites in this matchup, and it was an odd result for the Knights, given their form in the lead up to the game was so good. The total closed 44.5, with the Eels almost single handedly getting it over the line.
As for this matchup, the Knights opened small 0.5-point favourites, however the game was essentially lined as a pick em’. This hasn’t really changed, with slight money coming in on the home side. I’m pretty close to this number, as I make the Knights a slight 2-point favourite at home, and with the number likely closing 1.5, don’t see a tonne of value here.
The total opened 47.5 and has been bet up all week to where it currently stands at 49.5. These teams are quite contradictory when it comes to totals, with the Eels going over the total in 10 of their 14 games (71%), whilst the Knights have gone under in 9 of their 14 games (64%). I would lean towards the over in this matchup, however I can’t fully trust these attacking teams.
In all honesty, this game could go in any direction. The Knights are only 3-4 this season at home, however their draw at home hasn’t been easy, facing the Panthers, Storm, Roosters, and Bulldogs. The Eels, meanwhile, are 0-7 away from CommBank Stadium in season 2024, and this is the stat that is tipping me into a Knights bet this week. If the Knights forwards can hold their own in this one, I like them to get the job done in front of a big home crowd.
Knights to Win
$1.94 (1 Unit)
Same Game Multi
M Moses (1+ try) – Moses was superb on Wednesday night, and if he plays I can’t see the Knights holding him all game. A try will be well deserved for the Blues star.
B Best (1+ try) – Best looked great last week, and this week he will be attacking the weak Eels’ right edge defence. Expect the powerhouse centre to cross for at least one try.
M Sivo (1+ try) – Sivo continues to be a try scoring machine, even if he lacks in other areas of the game. 11 tries in just 7 starts this season, Sivo takes on the right edge of the Knights, which has conceded 40% of all their tries this season.
SGM Odds: $26 at Bet365
