Round 13 was a round where some of the bottom teams finally tasted some success! The Kangaroos finally got their first win of the 2024 season, while Richmond caused an upset over Adelaide to land their second win of the year. There were some cracking games however with the Swans proving their class against the Cats, while the Blues have moved into second spot on the ladder after defeating the Bombers in a huge King's Birthday Eve clash.
As usual, we’ll share our thoughts from every match of the AFL season, along with our Brownlow vote predictions and projections using our own system which has a proven profitable history over many years. For full details on how it works, see the section at the bottom of the page. We hope you'll use our free Brownlow tips to help you find value during the season and built a green book before the big night.
For links to every round of the season and full count, head to our 2024 Brownlow Medal Leaderboard page (coming soon).
2024 AFL Brownlow Round 13 Overview
A quieter week for our 2024 Brownlow contenders with not a lot of movement at the top of the leaderboard. Isaac Heeney may have extended his lead but only slightly with Errol Gulden and possibly Chad Warner likely to take votes away. That could be a problem for the Swans at the end of the count! Noah Anderson, Lachie Neale, Jordan Dawson and Nic Martin might be the only others inside the top 20 to poll votes in Round 13.
Check out our 2024 Round 13 Brownlow votes below and our updated 2024 Brownlow leaderboard here!
2024 AFL Brownlow Votes - Round 13 Match Analysis
Adelaide 10.11.71 def by Richmond 12.7.79
An upset to start the round as the Tigers got just their second win of the season to leave the Crows’ 2024 finals hopes in tatters. Jayden Short (31 disposals, 8 marks), Noah Balta (20 disposals, 12 marks), Liam Baker (24 disposals, 8 marks, 6 clearances, 1 goal) and Toby Nankervis (13 disposals, 7 tackles, 43 hitouts) were among the Tigers best, while Jordan Dawson (32 disposals, 8 tackles) is one of the few who could hold their head up for the Crows. Tricky start to the round for Brownlow voting.
Jayden Short - 3
Noah Balta - 2
Jordan Dawson - 1
Western Bulldogs 10.11.71 def by Brisbane 17.12.114
The Lions had winners all over the ground as they mauled the Dogs on Friday night footy. Lachie Neale (38 disposals, 6 marks, 10 clearances, 2 goals) was superb in the middle, while Jarrod Berry (23 disposals, 6 marks, 1 goal) played an excellent role winning the ball while restricting Marcus Bontempelli (19 disposals, 6 marks, 3 goals) who was forced to go forward to make an impact. Harris Andrews (15 disposals, 9 marks) was excellent in the back half, while Eric Hipwood (20 disposals, 13 marks, 6 goals) and Joe Daniher (19 disposals, 10 marks, 2 goals) smashed the scoreboard. Adam Treloar (30 disposals, 8 marks, 1 goal) was typically prolific for the Dogs.
Lachie Neale - 3
Eric Hipwood - 2
Jarrod Berry - 1
Hawthorn 12.13.85 def GWS Giants 12.7.79
The Hawks held on for a dramatic win over the Giants to continue their impressive climb up the ladder. Will Day (26 disposals, 6 marks, 10 tackles), Josh Weddle (17 disposals, 1 goal), Conor Nash (20 disposals, 7 tackles, 6 clearances) and James Worpel (20 disposals, 8 tackles) were best for the Hawks in the win. Lachie Whitfield (30 disposals, 12 marks) was the leading ball winner on the ground, Kieran Briggs (21 disposals, 38 hitouts, 11 clearances) dominated when Ned Reeves went down with injury and Xavier O’Halloran kicked a career-best 4 goals from 15 disposals and 6 tackles.
WIll Day - 3
Josh Weddle - 1
Lachie Whitfield - 1
Xavier O’Halloran - 1
West Coast 8.17.65 def by North Melbourne 11.8.74
The Roos secured their first win of the season, but not before giving up a 33-point lead and nearly letting it slip against the Eagles. Jy Simpkin won a crucial late free kick to seal the win as he was back to his best with 28 disposals, 7 tackles and 2 goals. Luke Davies-Uniacke (26 disposals), Harry Sheezel (30 disposals, 1 goal) and George Wardlaw (21 disposals, 7 tackles, 10 clearances) were influential in the middle as Tristan Xerri (19 disposals, 10 tackles, 32 hitouts, 9 clearances) dominated in the ruck. Nick Larkey finished their work with 5 goals from 15 disposals and 6 marks. Elliot Yeo (23 disposals, 13 tackles, 8 clearances, 1 goal) was best for West Coast.
Jy Simpkin - 3
Nick Larkey - 2
Luke Davies-Uniacke - 1
St Kilda 7.9.51 def Gold Coast 7.6.48
The Saints got home in a dour affair with the Suns where the ball was stuck in the defenders’ hands for large portions of the game. Jack Sinclair (31 disposals, 7 marks), Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera (28 disposals) and Josh Battle (18 disposals, 7 marks) were good for the Saints. Sam Flanders enjoyed the lack of attention as he amassed 42 disposals and 13 marks, while Bodhi Uwland (23 disposals, 13 marks), Alex Sexton (29 disposals, 16 marks) and Sam Collins (18 disposals, 12 marks) all racked up easy possessions in the backline. Noah Anderson (29 disposals, 7 marks) was the best midfielder for the Suns and may challenge for votes.
Jack Sinclair - 3
Sam Flanders - 1
Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera - 1
Noah Anderson - 1
Sydney 16.16.112 def Geelong 12.10.82
Not even a six-goal head start was enough to stop the Swans from another victory as the Cats slipped back into the pack of the top eight. Errol Gulden (37 disposals, 8 marks, 1 goal), Chad Warner (26 disposals, 2 goals) and Isaac Heeney (26 disposals, 2 goals) were all brilliant in the middle. Are they stealing Brownlow votes from each other? Hard to see any of them missing out on votes but Brodie Grundy (24 disposals, 34 hitouts) was a force in the ruck and Tom Papley (4 goals, 15 disposals, 6 marks) was dynamic up forward. Max Holmes (23 disposals, 6 marks, 6 clearances, 1 goal) was best for the Cats but unlikely to get into the votes.
Errol Gulden - 3
Brodie Grundy - 1
Chad Warner - 1
Isaac Heeney - 1
Essendon 9.16.70 def by Carlton 15.6.96
The Blues were a class above Essendon as they climbed to second on the ladder following a good win. With their usual stars well down on their usual output it was George Hewett (23 disposals, 7 tackles, 1 goal) and Elijah Hollands (19 disposals, 7 marks, 3 goals) who were most damaging while Tom De Koning (24 disposals, 19 hitouts, 11 clearances) was influential in the contests. Nic Martin (26 disposals, 8 marks, 2 goals) is likely to poll for the Bombers as their stand out player.
Tom De Koning - 3
Nic Martin - 2
Elijah Hollands - 1
Collingwood 14.5.89 def Melbourne 6.15.51
The King’s Birthday match was a little underwhelming with the Dees never getting close to challenging the Pies. Jack Crisp (27 disposals, 6 clearances) won the medal for best afield, while Josh Daicos (34 disposals, 10 marks, 6 clearances), Brayden Maynard (21 disposals, 8 marks, 6 tackles) and Jeremy Howe (24 disposals, 8 marks) were also excellent. Max Gawn (25 disposals, 9 marks, 45 hitouts, 6 clearances) tried hard to carry his team on his shoulders but didn’t get a lot of help.
Jack Crisp - 3
Josh Daicos - 2
Brayden Maynard - 0.5
Jeremy Howe - 0.5
For those who need a refresher on how our Brownlow vote predictor system works, we assign 6 votes per game so that our total votes are the same as the official 3-2-1 system, however we break up those votes as we see fit across potentially more than three players. Some games are really tough to call which way the votes will go, so a better predictive model is to split performances and assign half points to each player where there is doubt. So for example if two players dominate and it's too hard to split their performance, they are given 2.5 votes each, with the remaining 1 vote given to another player(s). This will give us a predictive total closer to their true total, rather than guessing. We can then form a 'range' for each player (i.e. a min and max we think players can poll) with the thinking behind this that the variations from the half votes will even out over the long term.
If you intend on using our Brownlow votes to bet why not consider one of the best Australian sports betting sites which offer some great features for new customers. Also be sure to check out our Twitter page at @Before_You_Bet and continue returning to the site for our AFL tips.
