An intriguing matchup on Sunday afternoon will see the Penrith Panthers hosting the Manly Sea Eagles at Bluebet Stadium. With the Panthers decimated by injuries and Origin players attempting to back up, can the Sea Eagles take advantage and knock off a second straight Premiership contender, after beating the Storm 26-20 in their last start? Or will the Panthers bounce back after a tough loss last weekend.
Below, we will dissect the matchup, supply our Best Bet, and suggest a Same Game Multi. Be sure to keep up to date with all the NRL fixtures, as we preview every single game all season long, for free!
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2024 NRL Round 14 Preview & Betting Tips
Penrith Panthers vs Manly Sea Eagles
Bluebet Stadium, Sunday 10th June, 4:05pm (AEST)
Last Week
The Panthers suffered a shock 22-10 loss to the Dragons at home last weekend, after leading 10-0 at halftime and closing 8.5-point favourites. It was tough going for the Panthers, who were without Dylan Edwards, Nathan Cleary, Jarome Luai, and Isaiah Yeo, which seemed to severely hamper their attack. Brad Schneider was clearly unfit and did little in the game, leaving the main play making role to Jack Cole, which wasn’t ever going to end well. 50 missed tackles, 10 errors and 6 penalties conceded aren’t very Panther-like stats, and coach Ivan Cleary will surely have his side ready this weekend for a tricky Sea Eagles team.
The Sea Eagles meanwhile are off the bye, with their last start being an impressive 26-20 victory over the Storm in round 12. The Sea Eagles have shown they are still a competitive outfit without superstar fullback Tom Trbojevic, with their win over the Storm backing up from a tight one-point loss to the Broncos in round 11. The Sea Eagles find their best football against the big teams, with wins this season over the Roosters, Storm, and Panthers. They won’t be overawed.
Match Preview
The Sea Eagles snapped an 8-game losing streak against the Panthers back in round 5, smashing the Panthers 32-18 at 4 Pines Park. The Panthers closed short 2.5-point favourites, with the Sea Eagles dominating most of the game, creating a massive 8 line-breaks on their way to a great win. The total for this game closed 40.5 and was in doubt as to whether it would go over until five tries in the span of 23 minutes in the second half had the total sailing over. Interestingly, Nathan Cleary missed this game too, giving us a solid indication of where this game should be lined.
Speaking of the line, the Panthers opened 10.5-point favourites for this game, prior to their loss to the Dragons last week. They re-opened 9.5-point favourites on Monday, with solid Sea Eagles money coming into the market all week, with the Panthers now sitting as 6.5-point favourites. This is a big move, and more than likely comes off the back of the Panthers losing Dylan Edwards and Liam Martin, with both likely ruled out for Sunday’s game.
I make the Panthers a 6-point favourite for this one, with the market moving heavily in my favour through the week. At this point, I don’t see any value in betting the spread in this matchup.
The total opened 44.5, which has been bet down ever so slightly to 43.5, with the over heavily juiced. I see solid value in the under here, with my fair total being closer to 40.5. However, as was shown in the last matchup between these two sides, the score can blow out quickly.
Instead, I like this game to remain tight and believe an either side to win by 1-12 margin is a solid look this week. The Panthers, when they win, are 50/50 when it comes to wins by 1-12 or 13+, but the Sea Eagles have almost exclusively been involved in tight matches this season, with 9 of their 11 games being decided by 1-12 points. The Panthers will be better prepared this week for the Sea Eagles than they were in round 5, and I believe they will get the win, but I’d prefer the safety of the margin bet.
Either team to win by 1-12
$1.75 (1.5 Units)
Same Game Multi
Panthers ML – As explained above, the Panthers should be desperate enough at home to get the win here.
S Turuva (1+ try) – Turuva has been on a try scoring drought, relatively speaking, with no tries in his past four games. With Luai likely to play on the right, expect the Panthers to funnel the ball down that edge, with the Sea Eagles conceding 42% of their tries on that edge.
T Koula (1+ try) – The Panthers’ edges have struggled defensively with several changes over the past few weeks, and with the speed and strength of Koula attacking the Panthers’ particularly weak right side, expect a try for him this week.
SGM Odds: $9.50 at Bet365
