Carlton and Gold Coast face off in a crucial clash at Marvel Stadium, in a battle of 8th versus 10th. Both teams are at 6-4 with the winner likely to end the round inside of the top eight! Check out our full preview below.
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2024 AFL Round 11 Preview & Betting Tips
Carlton vs Gold Coast
Saturday 1:45pm AEST, May 25th, Marvel Stadium
Gold Coast produced arguably the best performance in the history of the club, kicking their highest ever score in a 64 point win over Geelong. The Suns had five players record over 30 disposals as Noah Anderson (42), Sam Flanders 37, Matt Rowell (35), Touk Miller (32) and Alex Sexton (32) led the way in a dominant performance for Gold Coast.
The Suns also had big performances up forward from Jack Lukosius (5 goals), Bailey Humphrey (5) and Ben King (4). Gold Coast recorded a mammoth 73 inside 50’s, 15 above the league average as the Suns forward line took full advantage.
Despite the dominant victory, Gold Coast have made four changes with Jarrod Witts, Jed Walter, Nick Holman and Jake Rogers returning while Brayden Fiorini, Ned Moyle, Alex Davies and Sam Day were all omitted.
Carlton get some much needed relief at the selection table as Jacob Weitering has recovered from the corked quad that saw him subbed out last week. Adam Saad returns from a hamstring injury that has kept him out since Round 5, while Marc Pittonet (finger) and Caleb Marchbank (managed) won’t line up on Saturday afternoon.
The Blues flew out of the blocks against Sydney last week, kicking four of the first five goals as they ran riot in the opening term at the SCG. However that was as good as it got for Carlton as they conceded 13 of the next 14 goals, the turning point in their 52 point defeat.
Despite losing the disposal, contested possession, clearance and inside 50 counts, Carlton recorded 22 fewer tackles than Sydney in what was an un-Carlton like performance from what they’ve produced since the second half of last season.
Although the Suns come into this game with three wins from their last four games, they have failed badly each time they’ve hit the road this season. Gold Coast are 0-4 away from home, with losses of 48, 28, 53 and 34 points. The Suns are 1-4 against sides in the top 12, with their other five wins coming against the bottom five teams on the ladder.
Match Prediction: This game presents another audit for Gold Coast’s finals credentials, a test they’ve failed over and over again this season. Carlton are match hardened playing GWS, Geelong, Collingwood, Melbourne, and Sydney over the last five weeks, winning three of those five games and being in all of those fixtures outside of the Sydney game.
The Blues accounted for the Suns both times they met last year, winning by 59 and 4 points. It’s difficult to have any confidence in Damien Hardwick’s side given what they’ve dished up on the road this season. Carlton are ranked 4th in the competition in points for and 5th for tackles, and they will be desperate to get back to these high standards after what they delivered last week. The Blues have won five of their last seven games at Marvel and have averaged 137 points per game under the roof this season.
Carlton -16.5
$1.90 (1 Units)
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Sam Walsh 30+ Disposals: Sam Walsh’s seven game streak of 30+ disposals came to an end last week, being held to 20 disposals thanks to an intense James Jordan tag. Despite the down week Walsh is still averaging 31 disposals per game and hit the 30 disposal mark in his first five games this season. Expect a bounce back from the superstar.
Patrick Cripps 25+ Disposals: Although he wasn’t at his best against the Swans, Cripps has put together an impressive run of form over the last five weeks, averaging 29.8 disposals per game since Round 6. The Carlton skipper had a quiet night and still managed to get 24 disposals last week, so expect Cripps to produce on Saturday afternoon.
Noah Anderson 25+ Disposals: Noah Anderson continues to go from strength to strength, recording a career high 42 disposals against Geelong last week. Anderson has hit the 25+ disposal mark in seven of his ten games in 2024 and has consistently performed well against Carlton. Anderson has had disposal returns of 24, 27, 35, 30 and 30 from his last five games against the Blues.
SGM Odds: $3.90 at BoomBet
