Two teams hit with the injury bug kick things off on Sunday afternoon, with the Warriors minus Shaun Johnson taking on the Panthers sans Nathan Cleary. What would have been a heavyweight clash just a couple of months ago, is now a matchup between one team struggling for a win, taking on a heavyweight that is resembling a big diesel engine struggling to get going. A low scoring affair seems likely here.
Below, we will dissect the matchup, supply our Best Bet, and suggest a Same Game Multi. Be sure to keep up to head over to our NRL Tips page regularly, as we preview every single game all season long, for free!
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- Factors to Consider When Betting on the NRL
NRL Round 11 Preview & Betting Tips
New Zealand Warriors vs Penrith Panthers
Suncorp Stadium, Sunday 19th May, 1:50pm (AEST)
Last Week
The Warriors lost their fourth straight last week, going down meekly to the Roosters 38-18. It was rock bottom for the Warriors, who had Premiership aspirations heading into the season, and now sit 14th on the ladder, two wins out of the top 8. The Wahs were never in the contest, going down 22-0 after only 14 minutes, only managing three consolation tries in the second half when the result was already decided. Addin Fonua-Blake continued to be a rare shining light for the Warriors, running for 171 metres and scoring his fifth try of the season. However, the loss of Shaun Johnson to a pec injury makes the loss an even tougher pill to swallow. Could their season be over already?
As for the Panthers, they also suffered a huge loss to injury last week, with Nathan Cleary limping off with yet another hamstring injury right before half time, in the Panthers 16-10 round 10 win over the Bulldogs. The Panthers were severely hampered in attack in the second half, failing to score a try after Cleary went off. With the added loss of Brad Schneider, expect the Panthers attack to look super clunky this week with Jarome Luai and Jack Cole in the halves. Dylan Edwards was once again superb last week, running for 254 metres and breaking 10 tackles.
Match Preview
These teams met twice last season, once in the regular season and again in the finals. In Magic Round last year, the Panthers managed to get by the Warriors 18-6 after closing as 11.5-point favourites. The Warriors copped two sin-bins in the second half, in what was otherwise a fantastic game. However, it was far more one-sided in week 1 of the final’s series, as the Panthers hammered the Warriors 32-6 as 17.5-point favourites. The Panthers dominated every aspect of the match and should give them a good psychological edge over the Warriors. Both games went under the totals.
This week, the Panthers opened 12.5-point favourites, and with both teams losing their number 7’s, the number didn’t change much throughout the week, with the Panthers currently sitting as 13.5-point favourites. This game is tough to handicap, and I get the feeling the market are rating the Panthers as the team that has so far this season played without Cleary, but with Schneider. With no Cleary or Schneider, I don’t believe the Panthers will be as good as they have been. However, I don’t have the data, or conviction, to make a bet on the spread in this game.
The total is where we will look for value here. Prior to the losses of both halfbacks, the total opened 40.5, and somehow the total remains at 40.5. Both teams will surely be far more clunky in attack, with Luai having to run the Panthers around the paddock, and the Warriors surely changing the makeup of their team before kick-off, with Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad currently listed at five-eighth. With these teams at full strength, I’d make a fair total 35.5, however with both half backs missing I could bump this down to 33.5/34.5. I find huge value in the under here, with the main concern being the Warriors are just done, and the Panthers will run over the top of them. After witnessing the Panthers’ attack last week with Luai and Cole in the halves, I doubt it, so I love the under here.
Under 40.5 Points
$1.89 (3.5 Units)
Same Game Multi
Panthers (team total) under 26.5 – See above for the most part. The Warriors defence has still been relatively solid this season, and with this halves pairing, Panthers shouldn’t score 5 tries.
Warriors (team total) under 12.5 – With no SJ, and the Panthers noted defence, I can’t see the Warriors scoring three times.
S Turuva (1+ try) – The Warriors defence has leaked plenty of tries on the edges, conceding a whopping 86% of all tries on the edges.
SGM Odds: $7.09 at Neds
