It all comes down to this, Monday morning after 37 games, one more Matchday to decide the English Premier league title. Will City become the first team to win four straight Premier League titles? Or will Arsenal win their first title since 2004? Jack Tobin provides his best bets for the final day of action right here!
EPL 2023-24: Matchday 38 Preview & Betting Tips
Manchester City vs West Ham
Etihad Stadium, Monday 20th May, 1:00am AEST
After taking care of business on Wednesday against Tottenham, the equation is simple for Manchester City. Win and they become the first team to win four consecutive Premier League titles, lose or draw and they open the door for Arsenal to steal the title. Standing in their way is ninth placed West Ham, who have nothing to gain from the final game of the season. The Hammers defeated relegation bound Luton Town 3-1 in their last game, but have just one win from their last five games.
City’s clash on the road against Spurs during the week was a tense encounter, with Erling Haaland’s brace leaving Pep Guardiola’s side on the brink of another title. Tottenham had the upper hand for periods of the game, however it was another display of City simply knowing how to win crucial games. Substitute goalkeeper Stefan Ortega was the unlikely hero after making three crucial saves to give City the victory after coming on in the 69th minute.
Although they defeated Luton Town last week, West Ham’s defence has been all over the place in the last month. Since April 14th, the Hammers have played five league games, conceding 15 goals, with a 1-1-3 record. West Ham have the 17th ranked defence, ahead of only the three teams that are set to be relegated. Man City on the other hand are the highest scoring team in the league having scored 93 goals, and have scored 30 goals in their current eight game winning streak. The defending champs are unbeaten from their last 22 games and are going to come out rampant against a struggling West Ham defence.
Manchester City -2
$1.73 (1 Unit)
Arsenal vs Everton
Emirates Stadium, Monday 20th May, 1:00am AEST
Arsenal didn’t get the favour they needed from their North London rivals during the week, and now need a slip up from City against West Ham if they are any chance to win the title. Arsenal won their last fixture against Manchester United with a gritty 1-0 victory which momentarily put them at the top of the table, in what was their fifth straight victory. Arsenal take on an Everton side that for the second consecutive year hit a red hot patch of form late in the season to avoid relegation.
The Toffees have a 4-1-0 record across their last five games, which came on the back of a thirteen-game winless run between December and March. Although it looks great on paper, four of those five games were against sides in the bottom fifth positions on the Premier League table. Everton’s struggles this season have come from an inability to be damaging in their front third, scoring just 39 goals this season which is second fewest of any club in the league this season.
Arsenal have scored fourteen goals from their last five games, scoring at least two goals in four of those five games. Everton simply do not have the quality in their front half to go with the Gunners, who will be desperate given what is required for them from the final day of the season. Arsenal have won three of their last four Premier League fixtures against the Toffees, with an aggregate score of 10-1 across those three victories.
Arsenal -2
$2.10 (1 Unit)
Liverpool vs Wolverhampton
Anfield, Monday 20th May, 1:00am AEST
Jurgen Klopp’s final season in charge of Liverpool has petered out over the last six weeks, with the Reds going 2-2-2 across their last six games after being at top the Premier League table heading into Matchday 32. Liverpool are guaranteed to finish third regardless of the outcome of their clash against Wolverhampton, but the Reds will be determined to send Klopp out on a high. Wolves have nothing to really gain or lose out of the final game of the season, with the scope of positions they could finish being between 10th to 14th.
Wolverhampton have struggled badly across the last two months, possessing a 2-2-7 record in Premier League matches since the start of March. Wolves have lost their last two games with score lines of 3-1 and 5-1, which is a sign they’ve checked out given how solid their defence had been during the middle of the season. Despite having two draws and a win from their last three games, Liverpool have scored nine goals from those three games and could expose Wolverhampton’s defence.
Liverpool have dominated this fixture for over a decade, in what has been one of the most one-sided matchups in the Premier League. Since 2011 these two sides have met in the Premier League 14 times, with Liverpool winning 13 and Wolves winning one. The Reds last three wins against Wolverhampton have come by two goals, and given Wolverhampton’s lack of form, it’s difficult to see Wolves keeping this game close. Expect Liverpool to come out firing and give Klopp a positive farewell.
Liverpool -2
$2.05 (1 Unit)
