The final game of NRL Super Saturday is arguably the ‘match of the round’ with the Storm hosting the Sharks. Sitting 1st and 2nd on the competition ladder should make for a blockbuster contest between two sides desperate to extend their run of positive form. With little between these two teams, a high-quality match is expected. Before You Bet is here to take a comprehensive look at the action ahead and try to ascertain how this match will play out, with the aim of finding you a winner or two to add to your enjoyment.
Also, if you’re new to sports betting or betting on the NRL, check out the following articles to help build your knowledge:
- Guide to Betting on the NRL
- Where to Bet on the NRL
- Factors to Consider When Betting on the NRL
2024 NRL Round 10 Preview & Betting Tips
Melbourne Storm vs Cronulla Sharks
AAMI Park – Saturday 11th May – 7:35pm (AEST)
Match Preview
The Storm headed to the Gold Coast last week and narrowly scraped home with a 22-20 win against a determined Titans team. Starting the match strongly, the Storm led 20-12 and were in a strong position to build on that score. Unfortunately, injuries and a loss of momentum in the middle, made points difficult to come by. All they could manage in the second half was a single penalty goal. Thankfully, it was enough to get them the victory. They will have to be better than they were in that match if they are to be competitive here; they completed at just 78%, had a 46% share of possession, made significantly fewer metres with an average of just 8.2m per carry, fewer pcm’s and line breaks (6 vs 4). They also missed 43 tackles and will count themselves lucky that a better team wasn’t their opponent.
The Sharks went about their business as they have down all year, quiet, prepared and with a killer instinct that was too much for the Dragons. Despite scoring the opening try, they trailed 10-6 at the break but didn’t panic. Rather, they built pressure with pleasing ends to attacking sets and wore their opponents down. With an equal share of possession, their 83% completion rate in poor conditions laid the foundation for this result. Furthermore, they averaged more metres, made more pcm’s and more line breaks (7 vs 4). Their defensive structure was also better, missing 33 tackles and scrambling well when needed. They are the competition leaders for a reason but will also be aiming to be better in this contest.
Match Prediction
This is a fantastic match-up for prime-time viewing on Saturday night. The Storm head into this game with Ryan Papenhuyzen and Jahrome Hughes from their spine; both are key players to their success and while the Storm are a team with a ‘next man up’ mentality, they are two key omissions. The Sharks are relatively unchanged. The team news has levelled up this contest with both sides listed at a $1.90 to win this contest.
The Storm will be hoping their home ground advantage (76%) counts for something, as the Sharks always struggle here (14% - 2 victories in 14 attempts). The Sharks also have a poor record against the Storm; they have won just 3 of their past 10 meetings. This is their best chance to win on the road against the Storm. Despite missing their first-choice 5/8, they have still proven to be an attacking threat. Better still, they have the defensive structure to back it up. They have an edge over the Storm in both these areas on season averages by scoring more points (24ppg vs 27ppg) and conceding fewer (17ppg vs 13ppg).
There are signs that the Storm struggling against the Titans may also make them vulnerable. While there is a slight lean towards the Sharks, underestimate the Storm at your own peril. The movement of Munster to 7 will ignite his attacking flair. The preferred (and safer) option is to invest on this game being a close contest and enjoying everything this match has to offer.
Either Team by 10.5 Points or Less
$1.80 (2.5 Units)
Same Game Multi
As stated above, the Sharks are preferred (only slightly). If they are to win, it would be surprising to see them win by more than 2 converted tries. With such strong defensive records, each team is likely to tighten up and keep the total points in this contest low.
Sharks 1-12
Total Points Under 42.5
SGM Odds: $5.50 at Ladbrokes (0.5 Units)
