The 27th instalment of the battle of the bridge kicks off Saturday’s slate of football as Sydney and GWS go head to head. With the Swans and Giants sitting second and third on the ladder, this could go down as one of the best clashes we’ve seen between the arch rivals!
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2024 AFL Round 8 Preview & Betting Tips
Sydney vs GWS
Saturday 1:45pm AEST, 4th May, SCG
The stage is set, second versus third, both sides 7-1 and coming off victories in excess of 50 points - this game has the makings of an absolute classic.
The ladder doesn’t lie, the two New South Wales teams have been the best sides apart from Geelong and have played scintillating football in season 2024. The Giants are coming off a 54 point smashing of Brisbane in the nation’s capital, while Sydney annihilated Hawthorn by 76 points at the MCG.
Both sides will have big inclusions with the Giants regaining Toby Greene and Sam Taylor who missed through suspension and concussion respectively. For the Swans, Dane Rampe returns after missing the last three games with a hamstring injury.
It comes as no surprise that these two sides are in the upper echelon in most of the key statistical areas of the game. GWS are ranked 1st in the competition in points for, 1st for disposals, 3rd in marks and 3rd for inside 50’s. Sydney ranks 2nd in points per game, 2nd in marks, 4th in disposals and 5th for tackles.
The interesting take away from both team’s statistical profile, is that they haven’t been amazing at stoppages. Sydney and GWS are ranked in the bottom six in the competition for total clearances, so whoever gets on top of this battle will go a long way towards winning the game.
The Giants look more likely to work their way into supremacy at the stoppages. Despite ranking 15th for total clearances, GWS rank seventh for centre clearances and have shown a capacity to break games open by scoring from centre clearances. GWS are the sixth best side in the league for contested possessions, an area which Sydney astonishingly sits 16th.
Match Prediction: This is set to be one of the games of the season between two sides who are in outstanding form and this game will be incredibly difficult to pick, however one thing you can expect is that this game will be close. The last five meetings between the Sydney teams sees the Swans with a slight advantage 3-2, and five of the last seven games have been decided by 26 points or less.
The two fixtures between Sydney and GWS in 2023 were decided by one point and eleven points, and with both teams essentially at full strength we should be set for another thrilling encounter.
Although both teams have been scoring powerhouses in 2024, given the nature of the SCG and the quality of both sides, this game could be lower scoring than most would expect. Given how close these sides are, the margin markets are where we will go in this clash, with either team to win by under 25 points providing safety and value.
Either Team By Less Than 24.5 Points
$1.70 (1.5 Units)
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Errol Gulden 25+ Disposals: Errol reached the 25+ disposal mark for the fourth consecutive game last week against Hawthorn, and has shown he steps up in clashes against GWS. Gulden recorded 32 disposals and 2 goals in Round 21 last season to claim the Brett Kirk Medal, whilst also having 27 disposals and a goal in the 1 point loss in Round 7.
Tom Green 25+ Disposals: Tom Green has put himself in Brownlow contention with an excellent start to 2023, averaging 30 disposals per game through seven games. Green is coming off back to back 30+ disposal performances, as well as producing 38 and 31 disposal games in his two meetings against the Swans last year.
Toby Greene 2+ Goals: The Giants skipper will be desperate to send a statement after missing last week through suspension. Green has kicked multiple goals in two of his last three games this season, and has kicked at least two goals in his last four games against Sydney.
SGM Odds: $3.90 at BoomBet
