It’s been a fantastic Round 8 so far and there’s a couple more blockbusters coming our way on a big Saturday AFL slate.
We’ll kick off at the SCG with cross-town rivals Sydney and GWS going at it with the winner arguably set to become the premiership favourites at the end of the round. The Saints will be looking for a big win against the Kangaroos in the twilight game before two matches in the evening cap off the day. Geelong and Melbourne is another battle of the premiership contenders and that should be a classic at the MCG. Finally, Essendon head west and will be hoping to come home with the points against West Coast.
Draftstars continue to offer massive prize pools with the Saturday main event offering a $60,000 prize pool, along with their usual variety of alternate contests:
- AFL $60,000+ Saturday
- AFL $5,000+ Saturday High Roller
- AFL $3,000+ Saturday Mini
The AFL Star contest is back for 2024 and Draftstars are offering the biggest prize pool in Australian DFS history with a $1 million guaranteed final with $250,000 top prize! There are qualifiers and satellites running for every AFL match, while there will also be a sprinkling of qualifiers across other sports such as NRL and NBA.
Meanwhile the 1000 AFL Target contests are set to return to Draftstars for the first time since 2018. Enter the contest and hit the 1000-point barrier with your team to scoop the jackpot!
Betting Markets
Sydney ($1.78) vs GWS Giants ($2.03)
Line: Sydney -1.5
Points: 147.5
St KIlda ($1.11) vs North Melbourne ($6.25)
Line: -38.5
Points: 174.5
Melbourne ($2.08) vs Geelong ($1.75)
Line: Geelong -3.5
Points: 164.5
West Coast ($2.57) vs Essendon ($1.49)
Line: Essendon -12.5
Points: 168.5
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Weather
Sydney - High chance of rain, 20 degrees.
Melbourne - Partly cloudy, 17 degrees.
Perth - Partly cloudy, 22 degrees.
While Melbourne and Perth should be all clear, the main interest in the weather will be the match between the Swans and the Giants in Sydney.
At the time of writing, there’s a 95% chance of between 15mm and 35mm of rain to crash down over Sydney. That’s pretty torrential and it’s been raining there all week, so you can expect the SCG to be absolute slop. That means there will be lots of stoppages where you can favour rucks and inside mids, and avoid high marking forwards as the ball will be mostly on the ground.
Where to Attack?
The ruck is an interesting decision with several different trends that can offer different ways to attack this slate.
The Giants have the worst record of conceding fantasy points to opposition ruckmen, so Brodie Grundy will be primed for a big game this week. Geelong are also top three in the same category with Max Gawn ready to smash the Cats all over the G. The other interesting ruck of note is Todd Goldstein. Has a very favourable matchup for rucks against West Coast and will be solo rucking for the first time since Round 1.
The North-Saints game is also a very clear trend. The Roos are hopelessly bad at conceding points to opposition key forwards - almost 13 points above the league average. At the same time, the Saints give up points to their opposition defenders with their deep press into their own defence. With the Saints 38.5 point favourites, it’s easy to suggest there’s doing to be plenty of ball in the Saints forward line to support both of these trends.
You may like to also look at Geelong defenders as Melbourne are also well above average for conceding points to general defenders this season.
Game script: Saints forwards, Kangaroos defenders, Geelong defenders
VALUE PLAYS
Todd Goldstein ($7,300) is going into this one as the solo ruck with Sam Draper omitted from the side. When Goldstein solo-rucked in Round 1 against the Hawks he put up a score of 75 with 41 hitouts. He gets a favourable matchup here against the under-sized Bailey Williams, so you’d suggest at worst that Goldy will be able to get a ton of hit outs to give him a solid floor to hit value.
Tom Atkins ($8,860) has slipped to a nice price now for the Cats. His season has been a frustrating one with just a 59.7 average filled with injury and sub vests. However with Patrick Dangerfield injuring himself, there is a spot in the guts for Atkins to get back to the bottom of those packs! Finished last season really strong with three scores of 120+ so the ceiling is there if he can get back to that sort of form.
MID PRICED PLAYS
Jack Hayes ($9,270) is an interesting selection by the Saints. We all know that Rowan Marshall is very sore. He was on one leg last week, and has hardly trained during the week. Do the Saints pull a late change and rest their main man in a seemingly soft match up against the Kangaroos? It would seem the logical step, but at worst, you’d think Marshall would be spending a chunk of time sitting in the forward line taking it easy. So where does that leave Hayes? You’d have to suggest Hayes has been brought in for some ruck-forward relief for Marshall, and either role looks favourable against the Roos. While Hayes has had to overcome a lot of injuries in his short career, he’s capable of pumping out some good fantasy numbers as evident by his 111 on debut.
For a similar pivot, you could also take Mitch Owens ($9,440).
Colby McKercher ($11,810) is coming off his best game for the season with 32 disposals and 109 points against the Crows last week. While there’s been plenty of talk about #1 draft pick Harley Reid this season, the #2 pick has quietly gone about his business and is putting together a strong start to his career for the Roos. If Harry Sheezel does move into the middle as most are suggesting, then McKercher could be the big benefactor as he’ll become their chief distributor in the backline. Has the best matchup for defenders in the league against the Saints, so if the stars all align, then it could be a great play.
PREMIUM PLAYS
Tom Stewart ($13,750) returns to the side following an enforced break from concussion and gets a great matchup here against the Demons who concede above average points to opposition defenders. Stewart’s form was down a little prior to his concussion against Brisbane, so we’re getting a really good price from a player who can ton up regularly.
Brodie Grundy ($14,040) is a great option in the ruck, and even though he’s a premium, there’s three other rucks who are more expensive than him on this slate! Grundy gets a great matchup against Kieran Briggs who is leaking points this season, but the main point to note here is the weather. It’s going to pour in Sydney which means lots of stoppages, lots of ruck contests and lots of chances for tackles. Two weeks ago, Grundy had 11 tackles in a score of 142 against the Gold Coast and that’s what we’re looking for here!
Suggested Draftstars Lineup
Cheat Sheets
