It’s the final stretch of the English Premier League season, with Manchester City and Arsenal fighting out a thrilling title race. At the other end of the table, three sides are fighting out for one position to avoid relegation. There are crucial games everywhere, and Jack Tobin has you covered with his best bets!
EPL 2023-24: Matchday 36 Preview & Betting Tips
Arsenal vs Bournemouth
Emirates Stadium, Saturday 4th May, 9:30pm AEST
Arsenal kept their title hopes alive with a thrilling 3-2 win over Tottenham in the North London Derby, to keep themselves at the top of the table. The Gunners are one point ahead of Manchester City, however the defending champions have a game in hand on Arsenal. Mikel Arteta’s team must keep winning, and given their +7 advantage over City on goal difference they’re still in the title race, however they will need City to slip up.
Bournemouth have moved into tenth on the table thanks to back-to-back wins, in what has been the most points the Cherries have ever recorded in a Premier League season. The hallmark of Bournemouth’s improvement this season has come from their ability to be more effective in front of goal. Led by Dominic Solanke’s 18 goal season, Bournemouth are ranked ninth in goals for this season, a stat they ranked 17th in last season.
Whilst scoring more goals this season, Bournemouth have conceded plenty of goals this season, ranking sixth for goals against. The Gunners are the most prolific scoring team in the league this season, which is why we’re looking towards the total goals market in this clash. The last three matchups in the Premier League between these two sides have seen scorelines of 4-0, 3-2 and 3-0, and given the current attacking form of both sides we should be in for another high scoring fixture.
Over 3.5 Total Goals
$1.83 (1 Unit)
Sheffield United vs Nottingham Forest
Bramall Lane, Sunday 5th May, 12:00am AEST
Nottingham Forest have a golden opportunity to have one hand on Premier League survival, when they take on 20th placed Sheffield United. Forest are one point clear of eighteenth placed Luton and two points clear of nineteenth placed Burnley, and could be four points clear of the relegation zone with two games remaining if results go as expected. Sheffield United are the only side currently relegated, so there is nothing to gain or lose for the Blades, which plays into Forest’s hands beautifully.
Forest were dragged back into the relegation battle after the four point deduction they were hit with back in March, however they have dug deep picking up points in four of their last seven matches. In contrast, Sheffield United have lost their last four games and are winless from their last eleven fixtures in the Premier League. The Blades have been atrocious in all facets of the game, ranked 20th for defence (97 goals conceded), 20th for goals scored (34 goals scored) and 20th for possession (34.6%). To put into context how bad Sheffield United have been, Luton Town who are the second worst defence in the league behind the Blades, have conceded 20 fewer goals.
Sheffield United have recorded one clean sheet from 35 games this season, and it’s difficult to see them turning things around with nothing left to gain from the final three games of the season. Forest won their corresponding fixture earlier this season, and with an opportunity to almost guarantee Premier League survival, expect a desperate performance on the road.
Nottingham Forest to Win
$1.62 (1.5 Units)
Manchester City vs Wolverhampton
Etihad Stadium, Sunday 5th May, 2:30am AEST
Manchester City continue their charge towards winning four consecutive Premier League titles when they host Wolverhampton at the Etihad on Sunday morning. Pep Guardiola’s side produced a professional performance on Matchday 35, in a 2-0 win over Nottingham Forest. Wolves come into this clash after ending a six game winless run in the Premier League after picking up a 2-1 victory over Luton Town. It was Wolverhampton’s first win in a league fixture since the 9th of March, and saw Wolves move into eleventh place on the table.
Wolverhampton’s winless run largely centred around their inability to be potent inside the front third, in what has been an issue for many years for Wolves. Wolves were the lowest scoring team in the league last season (31 goals scored), ranked 17th in ‘21/’22 (38), 16th in ‘21/’20 (36). This season Wolverhampton are currently ranked 15th with 48 goals, and only scored four goals during their six game winless streak, being held scoreless three times in that timespan.
The defending champions' form has been outstanding across the last four months, going undefeated from their last nineteen Premier League fixtures. Unlike their opponents, City’s attacking work has been elite in recent weeks, scoring nineteen goals in their current five game winning streak. They’ve scored four or more goals in four of those five games, and have far too much scoring power for Wolves to compete with.
Manchester City -2
$1.83 (1.5 Units)
