Round 5 concludes in the west as West Coast host a depleted Richmond side at Optus Stadium. This shapes up as the Eagles best chance to get on the board in 2024, and we’ve got you covered with our full preview below!
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2024 AFL Round 5 Preview & Betting Tips
West Coast vs Richmond
Sunday 4:00pm AEST, April 14th, Optus Stadium
West Coast put together their most competitive performance of the season at Mount Barker last week, pushing Sydney for three and a half quarters in 26 point loss. It was the first time this season the Eagles have been within 50 points of their opposition, as Harley Reid showed plenty of promise with his 18 disposals.
Much like the Eagles, Richmond produced a brave performance but were overrun by a more talented side in a seven point loss to St Kilda. Adam Yze’s side held St Kilda to just one goal in the first half, however the Tigers were out scored eight goals to four in the second half.
For all the positive signs on field over the last two weeks, Richmond’s season has been torn apart by a ridiculous amount of injuries. Tim Taranto (wrist) and Jack Ross (foot) join a massive injury list that includes Tom Lynch, Dion Prestia, Noah Balta, Dylan Grimes, Josh Gibcus and Jacob Hopper. The biggest concern is that all of these best 22 players are out for a month or longer, in what is going to stretch a thin Richmond list.
Liam Baker returns from suspension, while Hugo Ralphsmith is the other inclusion for Richmond. West Coast have made one change as Tyler Brockman returns from concussion, replacing Loch Rawlinson.
The Eagles showed some big improvements last week, matching the Swans for inside 50’s (53-53), winning contested possessions (134-126) and centre clearances (16-12). If West Coast bring the same level of intensity this week against a depleted Richmond side, they are well and truly a chance to win this game at home.
Match Prediction: Richmond are still strong favourites in this clash, which is surprising given their injuries and the fact that they’re on the road, so the Total Points market is where we’ll be going in this clash. The Eagles are averaging only 55 points per game this season, ranked eighteenth in the AFL, while the Tigers are ranked thirteenth averaging 75 points per game.
Richmond have only scored over 90 points once this season, while the Eagles haven’t scored above 79 points. The result could go either way, however given the lack of quality inside both forward 50’s, this will likely be a low scoring affair.
Total Points Under 173.5
$1.90 (1.5 Units)
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Dustin Martin 25+ Disposals: Dusty produced a vintage performance at Norwood last week, racking up 30 disposals in a dominant performance in the midfield. Given Richmond’s losing Tim Taranto, Martin will once again likely play as a permanent midfielder, and will have plenty of opportunities to win the footy.
Tim Kelly 25+ Disposals: Tim Kelly loves playing against Richmond, with some huge performances across the last two years. In his last three games against the Tigers Kelly has recorded performances of 27, 29 and 40 disposals, and will be eager to bounce back after a quiet game against the Swans.
Liam Baker 20+ Disposals: Liam Baker returns from suspension and will likely see more midfield time given the Tigers injury crisis. Baker recorded 21 and 23 disposal performances in his last two games playing a combination of midfield and half forward. With greater midfield opportunities, Baker could be in for a big performance in his home state.
SGM Odds: $3.50 at BoomBet
