The final NRL game on Saturday heads to Suncorp Stadium as the Dolphins host the Tigers. Having only met late in 2023, fans will be hoping another exciting 1-point victory will be seen, leaving viewers hooked until the final play. These two sides are evenly matched, with two wins each to their name in 2024. With momentum a key in the competition, each will be desperate to continue their positive form.
Before You Bet is here to make a broad assessment of what might occur and hopefully, find you a winner or two to add to your enjoyment.
Also, if you’re new to sports betting or betting on the NRL, check out the following articles to help build your knowledge:
- Guide to Betting on the NRL
- Where to Bet on the NRL
- Factors to Consider When Betting on the NRL
2024 NRL Round 5 Preview & Betting Tips
The Dolphins vs Wests Tigers
Suncorp Stadium – Saturday 6th April – 7:35pm (AEST)
Match Preview
The Dolphins eventually prevailed against the Titans on the road last week 30-14, but it wasn’t all smooth sailing. A late try in the first half gave them a narrow 12-10 lead, as they were competing to their opponent’s level rather than setting a standard of their own. Once they gathered enough momentum in the second half, they were able to run away with the match. The confidence in their attack was evident and they are an exciting team when they commit to second phase play. Averaging 9.5m per carry and having 7 total line breaks indicates how dangerous they can be in this area.
The Tigers captured their second win for the season in thrilling circumstances against the Eels on Monday. With a short turnaround into this game, they will be riding high on confidence after prevailing 17-16 courtesy of a 79th minute field goal. Heading into the game as outsiders, it was evident that this team was playing with a renewed level of confidence. They overcame an inferior share of possession (47%) by completing with poise (81% completion rate) and building pressure in attack. They will still need to improve defensively. Despite keeping the Eels points to a low total, they still allowed 10m per carry, 731pcm and missed 31 tackles. Nevertheless, they are a team which is trending in the right direction and can be pleased with what they have achieved thus far. This game is yet another opportunity to prove to the rest of the competition just how far they have progressed.
Match Prediction
Team selections have impacted the odds for this match. The Tigers are without Galvin (suspension), impacting their price to have them as outsiders for this match ($1.55 vs $2.45). There is no doubt that they would be a better team with his inclusion but to suggest they are this far away from their opponents’ discredits what they have achieved to date.
Despite leading the competition heading into the round, a true reflection of how the Dolphins are performing can be reflected in the Power Rankings. They are the superior team on paper but had a few things not gone their way against the Titans, they could’ve easily struggled to find victory. Neither team holds an advantage at this ground either, with each having a winning strike rate of less that 50% (Dolphins 44% vs Tigers 45%). Therefore, you must go searching for value to find a suitable investment in this match.
The line has been well set (4.5) and the averages this year suggest it may not be enough. The Dolphins are superior in attack, averaging 28ppg compared to the Tigers 20ppg, but it is far closer in defence. The Dolphins concede slightly more than their opponents (19ppg vs 18ppg). If each team plays to their strengths, the home side should be victorious. The best option appears to be increasing the line in your favour against the visitors – if you need to have a bet that is – otherwise, it could be a match to avoid altogether.
Tigers +9.5
$1.58 (2 Units)
