Super Saturday in the NRL kicks off with a fascinating contest, as the Warriors head to Homebush to take on the Rabbitohs at Accor Stadium. The Rabbitohs finally got off the mark last week and will be looking to continue their momentum with a big scalp in the Warriors.
Below, we will dissect the matchup, supply our Best Bet, and suggest a Same Game Multi. Be sure to keep up to date with all the NRL fixtures, as we preview every single game all season long, for free!
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- Guide to Betting on the NRL
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- Factors to Consider When Betting on the NRL
2024 NRL Round 5 Preview & Betting Tips
South Sydney Rabbitohs vs New Zealand Warriors
Accor Stadium, Saturday 6th March, 3:00pm (AEDT)
Last Week
As mentioned, the Rabbitohs finally got their first win of the season on Good Friday, in a tight 20-16 victory over the Bulldogs. The Rabbitohs showed great resiliency, as the Bulldogs pushed for victory in the second half, however the Rabbitohs refused to give in, despite the Bulldogs having more possession (54%), whilst also running for 150m more than the Rabbitohs. Despite the win, the Rabbitohs still didn’t show what they’re capable of, with their attack sputtering once again. However, it was a huge improvement defensively, in what would have been a welcome relief for coach Jason Demetriou.
The Warriors, meanwhile, managed their second straight win last week, as they got by the Knights 20-12 at home. With just a little bit of luck, the Warriors could easily be 4-0, and appear to be playing well defensively to start the year. Their attack hasn’t quite hit top gear yet, but with so much star power across the park, the Warriors look like a top 4 candidate moving forward this season. Roger Tuivasa-Scheck was immense at fullback, running for 283 metres, whilst busting seven tackles. RTS is back in the centres this week, with the return of Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad.
Match Preview
The Rabbitohs have a stunning recent record against the Warriors, winning the past 8, and 14 of the past 15 games against the Warriors. Last season, the teams met just once, in round 18, with the Rabbitohs easily accounting for the Warriors in Auckland, winning 28-6. This, despite missing Latrell Mitchell. The Warriors were 6.5-point favourites for this matchup, showing they were heavy favourites in the game. Are the Rabbitohs a hoodoo team for the Warriors, or can they put the recent record behind them and snap the winning streak?
This game opened at basically even money before the games last weekend, with the Warriors rightfully in my opinion taking on money throughout the week, to where they now sit as 1.5-point favourites. I make the Warriors closer to 6-point favourites, and believe the market is still overrating the Rabbitohs, who are currently 0-4 against the spread this season. The weather also helps the Warriors, as they will not only be more used to playing in slippery conditions, but their style of football suits these conditions more than the Rabbitohs.
The total opened 42.5, and like all other totals around the Sydney area early this weekend, has been bet down. The total currently sits at 39.5, and I can’t disagree. The Warriors have been very impressive defensively, and the Rabbitohs appear to be working more on their defence to compensate for their clunky attack early in the season. I’m scared off though, as the Rabbitohs haven’t shown consistency in their defence yet this year, and there’s every chance the Warriors can run all over the Bunnies.
So, we will just stick with the Warriors to get the job done here, and with the weather hanging around I’ll stay with the moneyline win at reduced odds.
Warriors to Win
$1.78 (2.5 Units)
Same Game Multi
D Watene-Zelezniak (1+ try) – DWZ has turned into one of the premier finishers in the NRL, and with the Rabbitohs left edge defence struggling, expect the flying perm to score this week.
L Mitchell (1+ try) – Latrell is a handful in perfect conditions, give him slippery conditions with poor footing the defence, and he will be nigh-on impossible to stop close to the line.
Rabbitohs (under 17.5 points) – I’d love to have gotten 18.5 here, but alas 17.5 is the total. The Warriors are conceding 17 points per game on average, despite conceding 30 to the Storm two weeks ago.
SGM Odds: $14.50 at Neds
