It has been a blockbuster start to the NRL season and the exhilarating action is set to continue Thursday night with the Storm hosting the Broncos. These two sides usually draw a large crowd both in the stadium and on TV. This trend looks set to continue and with both promising to feature towards the business end of the season, an exciting contest between two talented teams appears a likely outcome.
As always, Before You Bet is here to take a comprehensive look at the action and hopefully find a winner or two to add to your viewing enjoyment.
Also, if you’re new to sports betting or betting on the NRL, check out the following articles to help build your knowledge:
- Guide to Betting on the NRL
- Where to Bet on the NRL
- Factors to Consider When Betting on the NRL
2024 NRL Round 5 Preview & Betting Tips
Melbourne Storm vs Brisbane Broncos
AAMI Park – Thursday 4th April – 8pm (AEST)
Match Preview
The Storm had the Bye last week following their Round 3 14-12 loss to the Knights on the road. It was always going to be a tough ask missing so many quality players, but they were pushed for 80 minutes. Their 69% completion rate indicates their shortcomings; they are a better team than that effort suggests. Trailing 14-nil at HT, they fought their way back into the match but were unable to close it out. Another area they may need to address from that match is their 41 missed tackles.
The Broncos have the same number of wins as them, capturing their second win of the season with a commanding 38-12 defeat of the Cowboys at home. A blistering start saw them lead strongly but the Cowboys threatened to narrow the gap. The start of the second half saw the Broncos click into another gear and their opponents were unable to go with them. The win was made even more impressive considering they were missing a host of top-class players. They focussed on doing the little things right and with 53% possession, they completed at 82% and averaged 9.2m per carry. It is a sign that they are improving from a slow start to the year.
Match Prediction
The Storm have been boosted by the return of Munster and Hughes. They are huge inclusions for their team and will give them an added level of poise (and direction in attack). Christian Welch also returns in the forwards; all changes justify the Storms listing as favourites for this match ($1.43 vs $2.85).
There are no major changes for the Broncos, with Reece Walsh still absent. They are capable but where the Cowboys were not able to halt their opponent’s momentum, the Storm appear proficient at exploiting it. While not scoring as many points as they would’ve liked in attack, the Storms defence has been strong. They are conceding an average of just 13ppg, compared to the Broncos 21ppg.
The recent history should also be considered for this match. The Broncos have won just 1 of the past 15 games against the Storm; despite winning in the Finals last year, the most recent one came back in 2016. While this Broncos team appears to be more resilient than the ones of previous years, they will still find this match a challenge. It would be surprising to see a blowout victory; of their past 4 wins, 3 have been by 12 points or less. This makes the line (7.5) worth taking on given their defence is resolute, whereas the Broncos have leaked points during matches this year. Outside of that, this could be a game to watch and keep your investment low, rather than parting with a large sum of money.
Storm 1-12
$3 (1.5 Units)
