Easter Sunday NRL action kicks off with two teams with high aspirations this season, as the Warriors host the Knights at Go Media Stadium. After trouncing the Knights at this venue in the semi-finals last season, both teams will be looking to build momentum, after each side won their first game of the season last week.
Below, we will dissect the matchup, supply our Best Bet, and suggest a Same Game Multi. Be sure to keep up to date with all the NRL fixtures, as we preview every single game all season long, for free!
Also, if you’re new to sports betting or betting on the NRL, check out the following articles to help build your knowledge:
- Guide to Betting on the NRL
- Where to Bet on the NRL
- Factors to Consider When Betting on the NRL
2024 NRL Round 4 Preview & Betting Tips
New Zealand Warriors vs Newcastle Knights
Go Media Stadium, Sunday 31st March, 4:05pm (AEDT)
Last Week
The Warriors had to come from behind last week, getting by the previously undefeated Raiders 18-10 at home. It was a huge win for the Warriors, snapping their two-game losing streak to start the season. Roger Tuivasa-Scheck was massive, taking over at fullback after rookie Taine Tuaupiki failed a HIA in the second half, with RTS running for 200 metres and scoring the try that put the Warriors up by 8 points late. RTS has been named to start at fullback this week, which will be great to watch for rugby league fans.
Likewise, the Knights got off the mark last weekend, with their first win of the season over the Storm, 14-12. It wasn’t without a sweat, as the Storm powered home for the second week in a row, cutting the Knights’ 14-point lead to just two points with five minutes remaining. The Knights hung on, in what was a must-win clash for the Novocastrians. Kalyn Ponga was instrumental in the win, running for 202 metres, setting up a try, and breaking 9 tackles, whilst rookie Kai Pearce-Paul had his breakthrough game, making 39 tackles, running for 145 metres, popping two offloads, and breaking four tackles. Look for his star to continue to rise in the coming weeks.
Match Preview
These teams met three times last season, with the pair splitting the regular season matchups, and the Warriors smashing the Knights in the semis. The Warriors were favoured by 5.5-points in the semi-final, the most recent meeting between the teams, and utterly dominated the Knights on their way to a 40-10 victory. It felt a bit like the Knights played their Grand Final the previous week, after beating the Raiders 30-28 in week 1 of the finals. They never seemed up for the game against the Warriors, and whilst I take something from this result, I don’t think we can view this as an average result between these teams.
The Warriors opened 5-5-point favourites in this matchup, with money coming in strongly for the home side, to where the spread is now Warriors -7.5, heavily juiced towards the Warriors, indicating this will more than likely close Warriors -8.5/-9.5 at least. I don’t agree with this move, and believe the market is valuing the semi final win far too highly, with my fair number Warriors -3.5. The Knights are missing Leo Thompson and Dane Gagai, but I don’t believe the pair are worth five points to the spread, so believe there is value in the Knights here.
The total opened 40.5, with my fair 41.5. The total has stayed at 40.5 throughout the week, and I see no value in the total here based on my numbers, however both these teams appear to be unders teams in season 2024, with the Knights (3/3) and Warriors (2/3), combining for 5 games out of 6 going under the totals.
I’m confident the Warriors will get the result at home and believe there is more value in picking them to win by 1-12, than by taking the Knights +7.5. Yes, there’s a chance the Knights can get home, however I believe the Warriors have too much class across the paddock to lose this game at home.
Warriors 1-12
$3.10 (1 Unit)
