2024 AFL Round 3 Preview & Betting Tips
Hawthorn vs Geelong
Monday 3:20pm AEDT, April 1st, MCG
Despite low expectations coming into season 2024, Geelong have started with impressive wins over St Kilda and Adelaide, once again showing Chris Scott’s side can’t be written off. Geelong went to Adelaide as underdogs last week, but outplayed Adelaide for the majority of the game.
Tom Stewart produced a best on ground performance in his 150th game, recording an equal AFL record 10 intercept marks to go with 28 disposals at 89% efficiency. In the front half of the ground it was Gryan Miers who starred for the Cats with 26 disposals and 3 goals.
After some promising signs in their Round 1 loss, Hawthorn were given a serious reality check by Melbourne last week. The Hawks attempted to play a possession based style of football which failed drastically in a 55 point defeat against the Demons. Hawthorn recorded 52 uncontested marks in the first quarter, but lost the clearances 11-1, the inside 50’s 14-5 and the scoreboard 33-1.
The Hawks only managed to kick five goals despite winning the disposal count by 23, as their midfield was obliterated, losing the clearance count by 12, the contested possessions by 12 and the inside 50 count by 13. Jack Ginnivan, Mabior Chol and Jack Gunston all failed to get on the scoreboard which was an alarming display of how poorly Hawthorn moved the ball.
The Hawks work in the midfield was their biggest strength in the back half of 2023 as trio of Newcombe, Worpel and Day became one of the most productive centre bounce combinations in the league. Hawthorn have been smashed in the midfield across their first two games, the Hawks are ranked 18th for clearances, 16th for contested possessions, and 15th for inside 50’s.
If Hawthorn once again attempt their possession based method of football, the Cats are going to have a field day, and Tom Stewart might break the intercept mark record. Geelong have conceded the fewest points of any side in the competition so far this season, and the Hawks are going to have a difficult time trying to move the ball against the Cats, especially if they don’t win the midfield battle.
Match Prediction: Geelong have been ultra impressive through two rounds, with wins against teams that were predicted to feature in the top eight coming into the season. Despite Patrick Dangerfield’s injury, it’s clear the Cats are finding ways to win games without their midfield dominating proceedings. Coming up against one of the worst performing midfields in the league this season, will give them a great opportunity to get going through the middle of the ground.
The Hawks don’t have a method that is capable of breaking down the Cats defence, especially given their inability to win the ball at the source this season. Geelong have won three of their last four games against Hawthorn, with an average winning margin of 49 points. The Hawks have lost their opening two games of 2024 by margins of 55 and 24 points, so the -18.5 line will be more than achievable for the Cats in this clash.
Geelong -18.5
$1.90 (1 Unit)
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James Worpel 25+ Disposals: Despite the majority of his fellow midfielders having poor starts to the season, James Worpel is the one Hawk who can hold his head high. Worpel has produced performances of 27 and 28 disposals across Hawthorn’s first two games and has reached the 25+ disposal mark in seven of his last nine games.
Max Holmes 20+ Disposals: Max Holmes has had an excellent start to 2024, with the young gun looking set to take the next step this season after 23 and 24 disposal performances to begin the year. With Dangerfield out this week, further opportunities will open up for Holmes to win even more of the footy.
Grian Myers Anytime Goalscorer: Grian Myers produced one of the best games of his career last week against the Crows with 3 goals and 24 disposals. Hawthorn were exposed by Melbourne’s small forwards last week as Kozzy Pickett (3), Kade Chandler (2) and Jack Billings (1) created havoc, and Myers will be looking to do the same come Monday afternoon.
SGM Odds: $3.40 at BoomBet
