The English Premier League returns from the international break with the relegation race flipped on its head after Nottingham Forest’s point deduction saw them fall into 18th place. Matchday 30’s slate is headlined by a huge clash between Man City and Arsenal, and Jack Tobin has you covered with his best bets for the weekend.
EPL 2023-24: Matchday 30 Preview & Betting Tips
Newcastle vs West Ham
St James’ Park, Saturday 30th April, 11:30pm AEDT
West Ham travel north to take on West Ham to kick off proceedings on Matchday 30, with both sides looking to entrench themselves in the top half of the table. West Ham are in seventh place with back to back draws costing them a chance to move into the top six. Newcastle remain in tenth place after a 3-2 defeat to Chelsea in their last outing on Matchday 28, in what has been an awful campaign for Eddie Howe’s side after finishing in the top four last season.
Newcastle’s drop off this season has largely come from their struggles at the back, an area of the pitch which was a huge strength for them last season. The Magpies had the league’s best defence in season ‘22/23 conceding only 33 goals, this season Newcastle have conceded 48 goals, ranked 12th in the league. Eddie Howe’s side have only managed one clean sheet from their last eleven games, and have had a record of 3-2-6 during that eleven game period. On their day West Ham showed a capacity to be one of the most dangerous attacking sides in the league, and have scored eleven goals in their last four Premier League matches.
Newcastle and West Ham have struggled with consistency this season, however what hasn’t been lacking from both teams' games are goals. Nine of Newcastle’s last ten league games have had four or more total goals scored, while four of West Ham’s last six Premier League games have reached over 3.5 total goals. The last two Premier League meetings between the two sides have resulted in 2-2 and 5-1 scorelines. The total goals market provides plenty of value in this clash given the inconsistent nature of both sides, especially considering Newcastle’s vulnerability in defence.
Over 3.5 Total Goals
$2.20 (1.5 Units)
Aston Villa vs Wolverhampton
Villa Park, Sunday 31st March, 4:30am AEDT
Aston Villa hosts ninth placed Wolverhampton on Sunday morning, looking to keep their place in the top four. Villa have regained a level of control of their own destiny, thanks to Tottenham’s 3-0 defeat against Fulham, which leaves Villa six points clear ahead of Spurs who do have a game in hand on Villa. Wolves have recovered from a slow start to the season to work their way into the top half of the table, winning seven of their last eleven Premier League games.
Unai Emery’s side will be looking to bounce back from a poor fortnight leading into the international break, which saw Villa lose 4-0 to Tottenham and draw 1-1 with West Ham. Aston Villa’s two game winless run has been a result of them struggling in the front third, which has been a rare occurrence for them this season. Villa are the fourth most prolific team in front of goal this season having scored 60 goals, however they have only managed to score one goal from their last two Premier League games.
Villa still managed to generate 13 shots on goal against West Ham and 10 against Tottenham, so it’s only going to require an improvement on their conversion in front of goal to get back to form. Wolverhampton have significantly less firepower in front of goal having scored eighteen less goals than Aston Villa this season. If Unai Emery’s side score early in this clash, it’s going to be a difficult task for Wolverhampton to overcome. With a chance to keep a hold of their buffer inside the top four, expect a bounce back performance from Aston Villa.
Aston Villa -1
$2.63 (1 Unit)
Manchester City vs Arsenal
Etihad Stadium, Monday 1st April, 2:30am AEDT
First versus third, one point separating both sides, top spot on the Premier League table up for grabs. Manchester City and Arsenal’s clash on Monday morning has all the makings of being a Premier League classic, with this fixture set to shape the title race with ten games remaining for the title contenders. It’s the last time this season that any of the three title contenders will face off against each other, adding extra weight to what is a genuine six point game. A defeat for Manchester City would leave the defending four games adrift from top spot, making their title push incredibly difficult. For Arsenal, any result outside of a win will see them lose their place at the top of the table given Liverpool will likely win their game against Brighton this weekend.
Arsenal have stormed into first place on the table thanks to eight consecutive wins, with the Gunners on a historic goal scoring spree. Arsenal have scored 33 goals in the eight game winning streak, which has given the Gunners a goal difference of +46, seven goals ahead of Liverpool and eleven ahead of City, in what could be crucial for the final placings of the table. Mikel Arteta’s men are getting the job done at both ends of the pitch, Arsenal are the number one ranked attacking side in the Premier League (70 goals scored) and the number one ranked defence (24 goals conceded).
Uncharacteristically, Manchester City have struggled against the top sides in the Premier League this season. In five games against the current top five teams on the table, Manchester City have a 0-3-2 record, including a 1-0 loss against Arsenal back in October. City are heavy favourites in this clash which is surprising to see given how good Arsenal have been in the most important games of this season. Even in the handicap markets the Gunners are providing plenty of value, so that’s where we will be going in this fixture. Arsenal faltered late last season where Manchester City took the title off them, however this is a different Arsenal side that keeps finding a way to produce results.
Arsenal +1
$1.91 (1.5 Units)
