Round 3 of the 2024 AFL Premiership Season kicks off this Thursday night with a grand final replay up at the Gabba. This game has more at stake than anyone could have expected with both sides yet to record a win so far in 2024. So, in addition to Brisbane looking for revenge for Collingwood taking the premiership from them last season, they will also be looking to get their season on track with a victory in the friendly confines of the north. While Magpies run the risk of going to 0-4 and really starting to put their chances of going back-to-back at threat.
Draftstars continue to offer massive prize pools with the Thursday night main being worth $70,000 along with their usual variety of alternate contests:
- AFL $70,000+ Lions vs Magpies
- AFL $5,000+ Lions vs Magpies High Roller ($150 Entry)
- AFL $2,000+ Lions vs Magpies Fiver
- AFL $3,000+ Lions vs Magpies Mini ($2 Entry)
The AFL Star contest is back for 2024 and Draftstars are offering the biggest prize pool in Australian DFS history with a $1 million guaranteed final with $250,000 top prize! There are qualifiers and satellites running for every AFL match, while there will also be a sprinkling of qualifiers across other sports such as NRL and NBA.
Meanwhile the 1000 AFL Target contests are set to return to Draftstars for the first time since 2018. Enter the contest and hit the 1000-point barrier with your team to scoop the jackpot!
Betting Markets
Brisbane ($1.34) vs Collingwood ($3.18) Odds thanks to PlayUp
Points: 167.5
Line: Brisbane -17.5
If you’re looking to bet on the AFL this season, then you can bet with PlayUp by using the same account that you have at Draftstars. PlayUp are Australian owned and offer an strong range of AFL betting markets and offers, including Same Game Multis.
Additionally, we have a full Betting Preview for both games where we provide our best bet for the game as well as a great value Same Game Multi!
- Brisbane vs Collingwood Betting Preview
Weather
Forecast is 28 degrees and sunny through the afternoon into the evening. No risk of rain around game time, but you can expect the usual dewy slippery conditions of a humid evening in Brisbane.
Where to Attack?
Noting that we are still very early in the season and it is challenging to find trends with only 2-3 games under the belt, we can look at the last five games which will stretch back into 2023 and include the grand final where these two sides faced off.
Collingwood have been giving up over 6 points per game above league average to both inside midfielders and the opponents designated kickers in defence during the last five games. This aligns with how the Magpies have started this season and up at the Gabba will give plenty of opportunity to stack up Lions inside midfielders and backs given they are almost three goal favourites.
Brisbane on the other hand have been relatively stingy across all positions over the last five games, which was a trend consistent with 2023. They have really restricted backs with general defenders being held to almost 14 points per game under league average, while the one area that is potential to attack is in the ruck or with smaller forwards.
Game Script – Brisbane inside midfielders and backs
VALUE PLAYS
Finlay Macrae ($9,050) / Kai Lohmann ($6,000) these two are both side’s go-to subs early in the season, so we are by no means recommending that you roster them if they are given the sub tag. But the best thing about single game slate is that you will know prior to the bounce. Both need to be given serious consideration as value plays if they are not made the sub to start the game.
Macrae, as we noted in last weeks preview, was one of the Magpies best performers through the preseason and has been slated to take over the inside midfield role as some of their stalwarts come to an end. In his first two games he performed as well as expected fantasy wise during short stints, but if he starts this week expect plenty of midfield time.
Kai Lohmann also displayed ability to score through the preseason. I wouldn’t expect any serious midfield time for him, but he can push up the ground and if Brisbane go onto win this game as expected he’ll have the ability to return a 10x plus scoreline.
MID PRICED PLAYS
Darcy Wilmot ($10,740) will likely draw the majority of the kick in duties for the Lions with both Connor Mckenna and Keidean Coleman out injured. Last game he split the duties with Mckenna taking 3 apiece, so that number should go up significantly. As noted above the Magpies have been leaking points to the player in that role significantly in recent games. You can get $6 for him to hit 25 possessions which looks like good value in this role.
Cam Rayner ($10,070) has seen his midfield time increase this season attending over 30% of the Lions centre bounces. This week has Lachie Neale returning; however, the Lions have dropped Jarryd Lyons who had been attending around 50% through Brisbane’s first two games. I suspect Rayner’s attendance will grow this week with Lyons out of the team and Brisbane wanting him to develop in that space. His scoring has yet to blow minds this season but he brings a solid floor in this single game slate with potential upside towards the 100-point mark.
PREMIUM PLAYS
Josh Dunkley ($15,540) is quite honestly under priced at $15.5k in a single game slate where he has posted scores of 126 and 104 through his first two games. This matchup should be a positive one for him as noted above with the Magpies being killed by inside midfielders so far this season.
Suggested Draftstars Team
Cheat Sheet
AFL Projections Data - Bris vs Coll - Downloadable File (.xlsx)
