Super Saturday in AFL Round 1 will see four matches play out across the day. It all begins at the MCG at 1:45pm (AEDT) with old rivals Essendon and Hawthorn doing battle in front of what should be a very healthy crowd. We bring you our full betting preview for the clash below!
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2024 AFL Round 1 Preview & Betting Tips
Essendon vs Hawthorn
Saturday 1:45pm AEDT, March 16th, MCG
Will this finally be the year where Essendon breaks their finals drought? They certainly teased their fans last season when they started 8-5 and were still sitting as high as 5th on the ladder in Round 17. However, losses in five of their last seven games saw them eventually miss out on September action once again.
The Bombers were one of the busier teams in the off-season in an attempt to speed up their rebuild. They added the likes of Xavier Duursma, Jade Gresham and Todd Goldstein, all of whom will be making their club debuts in Round 1.
Unfortunately, the Bombers won’t be at full strength on Saturday as they’ll be without key cogs Darcy Parish and Jordan Ridley. Parish is been battling with hamstring tightness, while Ridley re-injured his quad in their final practice match, and will be sidelined for at least three weeks.
After a couple of seasons rebuilding near the bottom of the ladder, Hawthorn will be expecting to take a couple of steps forward and compete for a top eight finish in 2024. They finished third last in their most recent campaign with a 7-16 record, although they took a couple of notable scalps in the back half of the year which would’ve done their confidence a world of good.
The Hawks were fairly aggressive in the off-season and were able to add a couple of nice players to their mix. Jack Ginnivan comes across from the Magpies to play for the club he supported growing up, while Massimo D’Ambrosio exited the Bombers to join the Hawks in search of more opportunities at AFL level. Their forward stocks have also improved with Mabior Chol and Jack Gunston both signing with the Hawks. All four new recruits will be playing this weekend.
The Hawks also have some injury issues heading into their first official game of the year. They’ll be without the likes of Will Day, Chad Wingard, and Changkuoth Jiath. However, there was also some good news on the injury front with Vice Captain Dylan Moore overcoming Glandular Fever to throw his hat in the ring for Round 1.
Match prediction: These clubs will be meeting in Round 1 for the third time in the past four years. The Bombers have had the wood over their old rivals for a number of seasons now, winning three on the spin as well as five of their past six meetings.
The Bombers have defeated the Hawks by 59, 27, and 13 points in their last three clashes and while the bookies have tipped this to be a closer contest this time around, I still have to give the Bombers the edge here.
Essendon to Win
$1.81 (1.5 Units)
Same Game Multi
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Sam Durham 20+ Disposals – Durham is one that should improve this year for the Bombers. He finished last year strongly with 22+ disposals in three of his last four games and is expected to get big midfield minutes, particularly with Parish out.
Nic Martin 25+ Disposals – Has been swung back to half back this year to become their main link up guy. They love the ball in his hands and I expect him to get plenty of it first up. He had 28+ disposals in both pre-season hitouts.
Nick Watson 1+ Goals – Highly touted junior who’s expected to show his class from day one. It should be a high-scoring affair and I’d be surprised if he doesn’t hit the scoreboard.
SGM Odds: $4.75 at BoomBet
