Round 1 of the 2024 NRL season comes to a close with a Queensland derby on Sunday afternoon, as the Cowboys head to Suncorp Stadium to take on the Dolphins. Both teams will be looking to kick of their season as they did in 2023, with a win, and the Cowboys in particular will be hoping for a far better result than their 2023 campaign.
Below, we will dissect the matchup, supply our Best Bet, and suggest a Same Game Multi. Be sure to keep up to date with our NRL Tips, as we preview every single game all season long, for free!
Also, if you’re new to sports betting or betting on the NRL, check out the following articles to help build your knowledge:
- Guide to Betting on the NRL
- Where to Bet on the NRL
- Factors to Consider When Betting on the NRL
NRL Round 1 Preview & Betting Tips
The Dolphins vs North Queensland Cowboys
Suncorp Stadium, Sunday 10th March, 4:05pm (AEDT)
The Cowboys come into season 2024 with lofty expectations, after a disappointing 2023 campaign where they failed to make the finals. The Cowboys haven’t gained anyone of significance, so the market is clearly expecting them to revert to their 2022 form, where they went down to the Eels in the Preliminary Final.
As for the Dolphins, the market is expecting them to be right around where they were last season, towards the bottom of the ladder. I do like the signings the Dolphins have made, with Herbie Farnworth and Tom Flegler in particular set to give the Dolphins some much needed star power.
Both teams appear likely to start 1-17, with the Dolphins coming in at full strength, apart from Tom Gilbert, who is out for the season. A look at the reserves list for the Dolphins confirms the increased depth at the club this season, with the likes of Jarrod Wallace, Jake Averillo, Euan Aitken, and Isaiya Katoa unable to make the 17. As for the Cowboys, they lost Coen Hess for the season, however other than that are at full strength coming into round 1.
The Cowboys were pencilled in a 5.5-point favourites early in the pre-season for this matchup, and early on it appeared as though punters were favouring the Townsville based squad, with the number getting to Cowboys -6 at some books. However, the closer this game gets to kick-off, the more money appears to be coming in on the Dolphins, who are now at +4.5/5.5, depending on where you are betting. I agree with this move, and I have the Cowboys as just 2.5-point favourites in this contest. I believe Bennett will once again have the Dolphins up early, much like their round 1 clash last year against the Roosters, in a game they dominated.
As for the total, it sits at 42.5 and I lean the over. Both teams finished in the bottom half defensively in the NRL last season, however with potential rain on the way in Brisbane on Sunday, I’ll steer clear of the total for now. I also don’t mind the Dolphins to go over their team total, which currently sits under three converted tries, but I’ll leave it a week to go too hard on team totals.
Dolphins +6
$1.90 (1.5 Units)
Same Game Multi
Dolphins (+6.5) – See above, plus the hook!
Over 38.5 points – Nice little top up for the multi. I like over 42.5 as the total, and this gives us that little bit of leeway.
Herbie Farnworth (1+ try) – Farnworth is a huge off season signing for the Dolphins, and he brings an extra element to this Dolphins attack. Showed in the pre-season he has slot straight into this attack, and I fully expect him to see plenty of ball every week for the Dolphins.
SGM Odds: $6.38 at Neds
