The UFC heads to Miami this weekend for UFC 299, headlined by a rematch between Sean O’Malley and Marlon Vera. In the co-main, Dustin Poirier takes on surging French Lightweight challenger Benoit Saint-Denis and Kevin Holland faces off with exciting new UFC addition Michael ‘Venom’ Page.
We take a look below at my best bets on this weekend’s card below. Good luck to everyone following!
UFC 299 Preview & Betting Tips
Sean O’Malley vs. Marlon Vera
So let’s get this out of the way, Sean O’Malley is a better fighter than Marlon Vera and the first win for Chito came down to a smart game plan and a bit of luck. O’Malley has also had his fair share of good fortune in making his way to the title shot, but his performance against Aljamain Sterling was anything but lucky. Leading up to the punch that floored the former champion, O’Malley was in control and showed that his gradual climb through the UFC ranks paid dividends.
Chito, on the other hand, has been a UFC regular for many years, always entertaining and gritty but has never been a world-beater in my opinion. Vera has very ordinary defence which is made up for by his incredible toughness and finishing ability, similar to that of Tony Ferguson a few years back.
Nobody has finished Vera or really come close to doing so. While I don’t see O’Malley being able to shut his lights out, I do struggle to see how Vera wins. If O’Malley fights smartly he should retain his title. Unless he gets baited in and gets reckless, he is far the better striker on the feet and can at least hold his own in the grappling exchanges. Back O’Malley to retain his title in a decisive decision victory.
Sean O’Malley by decision
$2.60 (2 Units)
Dustin Poirier vs. Benoit Saint-Denis
Dustin Poirier faces Benoit Saint-Denis in a new bull versus old bull type of fight. Poirier has been one of the UFC’s most reliable headline acts and was catapulted to superstardom when he beat Conor McGregor in back-to-back fights in 2021. Since then he has only one win to his name, beating Michael Chandler in an all-time classic in 2022 but also has recently lost to both Charles Oliveira and Justin Gaethje.
On the flip side, Frenchman Saint-Denis has been running rampant, finishing his last five opponents. But he has never fought anyone near the calibre of Poirier and only a few years ago he was crushed in his debut albeit up a weight class against a bang-average Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos.
While the American’s chances of being the undisputed world champion are likely over, this fight is his to lose. The smart money is on Poirier and I am shocked he is the underdog.
Dustin Poirier to win
$2.50 (4 Units)
Petr Yan vs. Song Yadong
Speaking of fighters that I can’t believe are the underdog, Petr Yan has opened as a slight underdog against Song Yadong, something I cannot fathom. The former champion has not fought in almost a year and is on a three-fight skid, but losses to Aljamain Sterling, Sean O’Malley and Merab Dvalishvili are definitely excusable.
Yadong is entertaining and was impressive against Chris Gutierrez in his last fight but that was far from decisive and wins over Ricky Simon and a washed-up Marlon Moraes don’t have me rolling out the red carpet. The Chinese prospect also was stopped by Cory Sandhagen less than 24 months ago, a man Petr Yan knocked down and beat by decision around the same time.
Yadong won’t be able to get Yan to the mat and will be pieced up on the feet. The only thing against the Russian is his tendency to start slow. Back Yan with confidence.
Petr Yan to win
$2 (4 Units)
