The final game in Week 1 of the NRL Finals features the Newcastle Knights hosting the Canberra Raiders. With the winner set to face the loser of the Panthers/Warriors matchup, and the loser bounced from the finals, this should be an entertaining affair on a Sunday afternoon in the Hunter.
Below, we will dissect the matchup and provide our best bet. Good luck to everyone following, and be sure to keep up to date with all of our NRL content, as we preview every finals matchup for free!
2023 NRL First Elimination Final Preview & Betting Tips
Newcastle Knights vs Canberra Raiders
McDonald Jones Stadium, Sunday 10th September, 4:05pm (AEST)
Last Week
The Knights flew into the finals off the back of 9 straight wins, with their final win of the regular season a thumping 32-12 victory over the Dragons. This, despite missing Kalyn Ponga, Jackson Hastings, and Phoenix Crossland. It didn’t matter, as the Knights flew out of the gates, scoring two tries inside 10 minutes, and the result was never in doubt. The Knights are the hottest team in the competition, and confidence is high in the sleepy beachside town of Newcastle.
The Raiders were a little unlucky last week, going down 24-6 to the Sharks at Pointsbet Stadium. The Raiders were right in the contest for the opening 60 minutes, before the send-off of Sebastian Kris. The Sharks ran away with the game late, but the Raiders would have taken positives out of their performance. However, with only 1 win from their past 4 games, do they have the form to beat the white-hot Knights?
Match Preview
These teams met twice this year, with the Knights managing to win both matchups. In round 4, the Raiders closed 4.5-point favourites on the road in Newcastle, and led 14-8 at halftime. The Knights came out firing in the 2nd half, scoring 3 tries in the first 10 minutes of the second half, holding on for a 24-14 victory. The total closed 41.5, and anyone on the over in that game would have been upset, with 38 points being scored in the opening 50 minutes, and 0 scored over the final half an hour.
Just over a month ago, the teams met again in round 22 at GIO Stadium. At this point, the Knights were on a 2-game winning streak, having just defeated the Storm 26-18 at home. Once again, the Raiders closed 4.5-point favourites, as the market struggled to catch up to the Knights’ impressive form. The Knights won and covered easily, spanking the Raiders 28-6. The Knights were dominant, running for 550m more than the Raiders, whilst both teams made plenty of errors, with 30 in total throughout the game. The total closed 47.5, and once again was looking good with the Knights leading 26-0 after 43 minutes. However, zero points in the final 24 minutes saw the total go well under.
The Knights opened massive 11.5-point favourites for this matchup, showing the amazing transformation over the past 5 weeks for the Novocastrians in the eyes of the market. Love for the Knights has continued, with the number bet up over the two converted tries margin, as the Knights currently sit 12.5/13.5-point favourites. I make the Knights a 13.5-point favourite, so I can see a slight amount of value here for the home side.
The total opened 42.5, and is still at 42.5. This is a full 5 points lower than the closing total in their round 22 matchup. I make a fair total 45.5 points, and an over is where I will pay most of my attention in this matchup. As indicated in my preview of the Sharks/Roosters matchup, week 1 finals matchups not featuring the Panthers have been dead overs the past 3 years, averaging a total of 52.3 points per game in those matchups. I’m also keen on a Knights total, with the Knights lowest score in their 9-game winning streak a 26-point effort against the Storm.
So, a few ways to play this game, but the total is where I will spend most of my bankroll.
Other Bet:
Total Points Over 42.5 - $1.95 at Dabble (1.5u)
Knights Over 27.5 Points (Team Total)
$1.87 (2.5 Units)
Same Game Multi
Popular bookmaker Picklebet have launched their Same Game Multis for both the AFL and NRL. There are plenty of markets to choose from an excellent odds on offer, so make sure to check them out!
Dom Young (1+ try) – Young has 23 tries in 23 games this season, and is attacking the poor Raiders’ left side defence. With my prediction of the Knights scoring 5+ tries, expect the big winger to score at least one.
Greg Marzhew (1+ try) – Marzhew has 20 tries in 20 games for the Knights this season, and has formed one half of the most potent wing combinations in a long time. Has scored 3 tries in 2 games against the Raiders this season.
Jack Wighton (1+ try) – Wighton has been named in the centres once again, and If the Raiders are to have any chance, they need something special from Wighton, in what could very well be his last game for the club, expect Wighton to have a big game.
SGM Odds: $9 at Picklebet
