The Dolphins and Warriors kick off Super Saturday, in a matchup that will decide who finishes 3rd and 4th on the table this season. Can the Warriors get the win without their superstar halfback Shaun Johnson, or will the Dolphins end their first season on a high note?
Below, we will dissect the matchup and provide our best bet. Good luck to everyone following, and be sure to keep up to date with all of our NRL content, as we preview every single game all season long, for free!
NRL Round 27 Preview & Betting Tips
The Dolphins vs New Zealand Warriors
Suncorp Stadium, Saturday 2nd September, 3:00pm (AEST)
Last Week
The Dolphins were totally outclassed last Friday night by the Cowboys, going down 34-10 in what turned out to be their 6th straight defeat. The Dolphins have now lost 9 of their past 10, and after they overachieved during the first half of the season, their lack of depth and star power has caught up with them eventually. The Dolphins were never in it, down 28-0 with 18 minutes to go. They made 13 errors whilst only completing at 64%, numbers that won’t get it done this week against the Warriors.
Speaking of the Warriors, they managed to sneak home against a tough Dragons outfit 18-6, to ensure a top 4 finish on the table. The Warriors form seems to have regressed slightly the past few weeks, but they’ve won 7-straight and would love nothing more then heading into the finals off the back of another win this week. The Warriors were probably good enough to win by 20+ last week, but lacked a bit of execution in the redzone. Coach Andrew Webster will be looking for improvement this week.
Match Preview
With a 20+ point victory, the Warriors will take 3rd position, likely facing the Broncos at Suncorp Stadium in week 1 of the finals (assuming the Panthers beat Cowboys on Saturday afternoon). Despite this, the Warriors have decided to rest several key players, with their entire spine being rested, as well as Addin Fonua-Blake and Dallin Watene-Zelezniak. Despite this, they still have a squad capable of matching it with this Dolphins outfit.
The Warriors opened 5.5-point favourites prior to the team lists dropping on Tuesday afternoon, and with the raft of changes for the Warriors, the number has changed drastically, where we currently see the Dolphins as 4.5-point favourites. Whilst I understand the massive movement, I can’t get anywhere near this number. The Dolphins have been the 2nd worst team over the past couple of months, and with nothing to play for here, it’s hard to see a reason for them to get up. The Warriors on the other hand have plenty of reasons to finish the year on a high. To put it bluntly, if both teams were full strength, I would make the Warriors 12.5-point favourites. Are the Warriors’ losses worth 17.5-points? I don’t think so, so I see terrific value in the Warriors with a try start, and believe they have a far better chance at a win than the markets would suggest.
As for the total, it opened 50.5 and has been bet down to 48.5. I agree with the move, and not only because surely the Warriors have less points in them now with their entire spine out, but also because I make a fair total 44.5. Still, I’m not a huge fan of betting unders when two teams with limited motivation are playing one another, so I’ll steer clear.
Warriors to Win
$2.50 (2 Units)
Same Game Multi
Popular bookmaker Picklebet have launched their Same Game Multis for both the AFL and NRL. There are plenty of markets to choose from an excellent odds on offer, so make sure to check them out!
Warriors (+5.5) – As above, I like the Warriors to win outright, whilst I can’t see the Dolphins winning by margin.
Jamayne Isaako (1+ try) – Isaako is the leading try scorer and points scorer in the NRL this season. Will be attacking the weaker left edge defence of the Warriors, and should score a try.
Edward Kosi (1+ try) – Kosi has been a little unlucky to only play 10 games this season, after scoring 8 tries from 11 games last season. Should be on the right, and therefore attacking the weak left edge defence of the Dolphins.
SGM Odds: $5.50 at Picklebet
