Two teams limping towards Mad Monday kick things off on Saturday afternoon, when the Tigers host the Dolphins at CommBank Stadium. The Tigers have lost 10 games in a row, and have all but sewn up their second straight wooden spoon. The Dolphins haven’t fared much better, losing 8 of their past 10, and a host of injuries has highlighted their lack of depth in their squad.
Below, we will dissect the matchup, supply our NRL betting tips, and suggest a Same Game Multi via Picklebet. Be sure to keep up to date with all the NRL fixtures, as we preview every single game all season long, for free!
NRL Round 25 Preview & Betting Tips
Wests Tigers vs The Dolphins
CommBank Stadium, Saturday 19th August, 3:00pm (AEST)
Last Week
The Tigers were competitive last week in a 30-22 loss to the Warriors, with the Tigers taking a home game to Waikato. I tend to believe this was more down to the Warriors taking it a little easier against the Tigers, as statistically the Warriors were probably good enough to win by 20. The Tigers only completed at 72%, missed 39 tackles, made 15 errors, and gave away 11 penalties. With Tim Sheens being told his services will not be required next season, the response this week by the players will be fascinating to see.
The Dolphins lost their 4th straight last week, going down 30-14 to the Roosters. Injuries didn’t help, with several players unable to finish the game. The Redcliffe based side missed 57 tackles to a team that’s struggled in attack all season. Their depth will surely be tested this weekend, with several of their best players out.
Match Preview
The Dolphins opened 4.5-point favourites on the look ahead line, and the change in this matchup between look ahead and current market price is the biggest change I can recall all season. The Tigers are currently 8.5-point favourites, a massive 13-point flip. Even with a slight upgrade of the Tigers after a decent outing against the Warriors last weekend, this big of a downgrade for the Dolphins seems excessive. With the Tigers listed as 8.5-point favourites, this would imply the Tigers are a 6-6.5-point better team than the Dolphins at a neutral venue, and I cannot get near this number. So, value in the Dolphins to cover the spread.
As for the total, it opened 46.5, and remains 46.5. My fair is 45.5, with the Tigers being a dead under team throughout this season, playing 14 unders in 21 games, indicating there is value here. If you believe the Dolphins can keep this one close, I think the under is the play.
The Dolphins are without some key names, with Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow, Jeremy Marshall-King, Connelly Lemuelu, and Kenny Bromwich all out. Despite this, I just can’t see the Tigers beating a team by 10+. They haven’t won since the 20th of May, when they lapped the Cowboys 66-18. Their other victories have been by 2 and 4 points this season, so to expect them to comfortably beat the Dolphins is a stretch. I don’t mind a Tigers (1-12) bet, but I’d prefer to have some insurance in case the Tigers forget how to win late. Low staking, with two teams having nothing to play for, it’s hard to gauge motivation levels.
Dolphins +9.5
$1.91 (1.5 Units)
Same Game Multi
Popular bookmaker Picklebet have launched their Same Game Multis for both the AFL and NRL. There are plenty of markets to choose from an excellent odds on offer, so make sure to check them out!
Dolphins (+18.5) – As above, Tigers by margin is something I’m willing to bet against.
Jamayne Isaako (1+ try) – Isaako has been a try scoring machine this season, crossing for 20 tries in total. Against a porous left edge Tigers defence, I expect the rangy winger to score.
Daine Laurie (1+ try) – Laurie has been a creative spark for the Tigers since returning to the team in round 21, scoring a try to go with 3 line-breaks, 3 try assists, and 4 line-break assists. Looks lively, and the poor Dolphins defence will struggle to contain him for 80 minutes.
SGM Odds: $7.50 at Picklebet
